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Daniel*

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Everything posted by Daniel*

  1. Daniel*
    Not been dry at all we’ve already exceeded monthly average in London.
  2. Daniel*
    Using Birmingham clear signal for something milder next week then temps start falling below average into following week. The forecast in Arctic is very cold, so will be interesting to see what happens.
  3. Daniel*
    Well we did I’m just speaking for the summer. September was the most exceptional month of year.
  4. Daniel*
    If not for a notably warm June last year, second warmest at Heathrow after 1976, it would have been possible to have not seen 30C, neither July or August achieved it was the first summer since 2008 this happened in midst of hottest year on record on Earth.
  5. Daniel*
    2021 was probably the poorest summer I’ve experienced since 2012 in London. In July I had 157mm of rain it’s my wettest month on record here in central ish London, near constant downpours then August the highest max locally was 23.5C which is shocking and it was a very cloudy notably so.
  6. Daniel*
    Disagree it was the epitome of “meh” at best it’s ok. All summer months were duller than average in London many humid days. Very forgettable summer apart from that August heatwave and that was not enjoyable too hot, then month fell apart, the summer felt worse after that spring, yes it was not pouring all the time or cool but not much happened.
  7. Daniel*
    I recently put summer together too from 1948 the data speaks for itself really. and winter updated to 2023/24…
  8. Daniel*
    I plotted annual mean temperature at Heathrow 1973-2023, It’s quite a helpful climate visualisation what we see is step up periods typically following El Niño although this did not happen in late 80s, then periods of stability. In London the climate has warmed near 2C since early 1970s.
  9. Daniel*
    Scorching sun easy, while I enjoy sunshine when it’s too intense it’s not enjoyable to be out in I search for shade. When I was Italy in July 2022 and August 2023, it was brutal our more northern latitude does help definitely a reason the 40C is very hard to see. I’m always quite mindful being in hot sun, skin cancer runs on my mum’s side. Snow whilst the most uncommon here, it is one of the most cherished weather events and I experience the most joy from which I’ve had since a small boy.
  10. Daniel*
    ECM 12z was rather cold but latest GFS involves a cold pool probably some snow flurries further SE. Still a lot of uncertainty but risk of something colder from east there around 12th remains.
  11. Daniel*
    Developing a good cold feed here… follow the isobars!
  12. Daniel*
    The ensemble guidance could rather easily shift in a colder direction. The ens generally refuse to disrupt Atlantic energy into continent. There is agreement for a blocking high in Norwegian Sea, there was no such blocking over the winter. I wouldn’t draw too much from ens especially beyond a week, remember the total agreement in January? It’s important to look at wider context a large deceleration in zonal wind the “cold outliers” I think that’s 3 in a row from ECMWF are not happening by chance.
  13. Daniel*
    Mid March doing something which none of winter could muster on GFS 18z. Thats a full house of det runs now GFS/ECM/UKMO showing potential for deeper cold air from east to arrive in the second week of March.
  14. Daniel*
    The day 7 chart from ECM 12z would have caused great excitement in middle of winter. Great positioned block, Atlantic being undercut. There clearly is potential for something wintry into second week of March but northern UK most favoured.
  15. Daniel*
    You are the one trying to provoke saying my post was made by ChatGPT. I never read anything so nonsensical in all my years on here. I did not even directly respond to you or said anything hostile. You should not be on a weather forum if you are unwilling to listen to other people’s opinions. How you got triggered by that factual post I have no idea, I was not implying it was a freezing spring just that there are reasons some thought it was poor one.
  16. Daniel*
    Is that what you resort to when shutting down an argument. In relative terms it was not very mild. Daft post and May is one month of three often more akin to summer.
  17. Daniel*
    Well here in central ish London July 2021 was my most convective month and my wettest month on record about 150mm. These downpours were more localised to inland SE England. I think in Scotland they were very warm and dry.
  18. Daniel*
    Spring 2023 was poor for warmth the lowest absolute max with 22.7C at Heathrow since 1986, it highlights what's still possible within our modern climate. Sometimes we get stuck in less favourable patterns that's the nature of our climate.
  19. Daniel*
    Across the UK no 1998 remains the warmest.
  20. Daniel*
    As expected has aged terribly...
  21. Daniel*
    First day of spring in Ireland you couldn’t make it up!
  22. Daniel*
    5.4C and 60mm thanks rather cold and dry cheers. Think easterly winds will dominate.
  23. Daniel*
    Cooler options are creeping in 12z yesterday and today.
  24. Daniel*
    Strong El Niño that’s your explanation on top of GW, the long duration La Niña accumulated a lot of heat in places… El Niño will die in coming weeks/months. Oceans will be cooler late 2024 with La Niña returning.
  25. Daniel*
    I don’t follow the logic! Modelling not looking mild really. I think it’s likely March will be cooler than Feb…
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