Nimbusman
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Posts posted by Nimbusman
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3 minutes ago, Chris101 said:
Trust me, get a N/NE flow off the sea and Norfolk will pile showers in all day long while the rest of the country stays dry.
Agreed Chris, NNE is the one for us here in Suffolk but anything from N to E wind direction suits Norfolk. Speaking of which the 6z pipes up with an scandi high...
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Very harsh frost tonight and plenty of freezing fog around too
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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
watch this low for Monday
expecting to be modelled way further south
Moving away from the slight disappointment of the short term here locally I’ve been looking mid term again and on the face it’s not looking ovelry cold (defo not mild though), so would be good to hear your thoughts on next week Steve? More HLB to appear as a response to the SSW downwell as we move through into week 2 and the weakening jet pushed further south? Siberian high seems to be excerting it’s presence more and more perhaps edging slightly further westwards into Scandi?
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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen
Yes Nick if you’re south of London looking potentially excellent further north in the region expect little more than a dusting (sadly trending the wrong way for us in the north east). Outside chance of something Saturday morning...
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7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:
I think a very different anxiety will unfold for tomorrows snow compared to last night.
It's looking like an all snow event, which will be nice not having to endure hours or will it/wont it change from rain to snow.
BUT the big thing will be the heaviness of the snow and the extent it reaches. Which is another issue all together. As others have said north and east of London looking less likely to have higher amounts than south and west of London but still in the game. Still 36 hours or so and time for changes.
The radar will certainly come in handy tomorrow for nowcasting.
Very good point, it’s never easy in the country is it?! The marginality was the major issue last night with the front arriving quicker than expected, the temps and dew points took much longer to drop to more snow conducive levels over here in the east.
As an aside it looks like there could be some very low minima tonight in the region and freezing fog so a real wintry flavour continues!
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
Nah your still totally in the game north of the M4. Heaviest stuff looking probably south of there but there should be some snow around, even if the front is on the wane by that point.
However nothing to say the front can't penertrate more than expected. You guys north of M4 certainly within the range if error still.
Cheers for the reply. Fingers crossed with the angle of attack being slightly more favourable too. Just saw the charts Nick posted for Thursday and Saturday morning and North Essex and Suffolk are right on the edge of ‘interesting’
I’ve accepted over the many years that an east coast locale in these set up can be difficult to get decent snowfall from. Having said that im still hoping for some positive adjustments in the the next 24 hours!
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20 minutes ago, kold weather said:
UKMO has tomorrows system in a similar position as the ECM though the area of heavier precip stretchs further north a little, to the north of M4 before quite a quick weakening.
Surrey- where about are you mate?
Looks game over for anyone north of M4 then Kold? Sorry haven’t had a chance to check the charts thoroughly this morning yet but I’m sensing this will be nothing more than a dusting for the north and east of region?
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Very slight dusting here in Ipswich too far east in these set ups despite what some models were projecting. Southern counties and Kent look great again for Thursday but not expecting anything here - geographically hamstrung again!
Hopefully there’ll be more chances left this winter but was nice to snow falling after a long long wait!
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Now properly snowing here in Ipswich, taken a while with temp and dew still dropping!
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1 minute ago, Nick F said:
BBC London forecast suggesting accumulations over hills and maybe some slush over lower ground, oh well, be nice to see it falling under the lamppost if that's the case, just hope Thursday sees a better chance of accumulations in our area, though it may not hang around if the band moves too far north.
Exactly the same rhetoric from Look East too. Likely to see snow falling but not much settling going off that although the Met office chart from their live cast earlier showed snow from 5pm to midnight over most of the region
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Going off that live forecast it looks like the Met Office are expecting the transition to snow around nightfall and the front pushing through by midnight
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Some light snow falling here now with some big flakes mixed in, won’t be much but nice to see the first snow of 2019. Pretty hard frost last night too!
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Certainly looks like the brisk northerly is on for Sunday according to the GFS 6z ensembles (para agrees.. and some!) and the trough sinking south in the following few days. How far south and east it goes varies and if we get the ridge behind to link to the Siberian high but definitely some more genuine interest now again after the easterly failure last week.
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39 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Lol
Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??
Just mentioned this on the BBC forecast too and by the looks of the radar the eastern side of the region could be in on the action soon... pivot!!!
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Better heights in the Griceland area on this run although nothing major, was expecting the trough to sink through into Europe again...
*edit : there you go! Northerly...
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Just now, kold weather said:
Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.
A second bite of the cherry coming next few frames perhaps?
ECM really blows up the low at the southern tip of Greenland between 96h and 120h
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Decent looking mean by Thursday too (which is where the split in the ensembles occurs) Also how often historically has HLB been modelled to be pushed away very quickly whereas in reality its much harder to shift. The arctic high looks like it gets muscled away too swiftly. My interest remains
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20 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Regardless of whether it actually were to go back to an easterly, the fact that the block holds would be no bad thing, if only to keep cold near our shores so any -ve NAO set-up with undercutting lows has a cracking cold pool to tap into.
Quite a large number of runs have that high pressure at least making some effort at resistance, really does seem as you say there is huge uncertainty even at real close range.
Agreed Kold. Also flicking through the ensembles still lots of very cold options on the table and some easterlies still hanging in there... perm 16 and 8 not letting it go! Despite the distinct move away in the last 24 hours there's plenty to play for as we go into Feb.
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Nice orientation of the scandi/Arctic high there!
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Just now, Mike Poole said:
ECM T168, the lady is not for turning!
Oh yes, the low exiting the US disrupts, the trough drops and the two highs link up... boom!
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
GFS just broke the internet
20-40cm
overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'
Yes Steve... what a clonker!!
Key here is for the disruption to be kind and push the trough well into Europe and getting those heights setting up over the Barents Sea allowing some deep cold advection. Tasty!
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I’m liking the the tilt of the scandi high at 192h and all that cold air flooding westwards...
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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:
As per my post of just now, energy not quite clearing on the 06z at +138/144 and we don't get the cleaner link up.
Suspect it will end up fine though, just delayed? Still a cracking chart as well by the way.
Yes I agree, slightly delayed but looks like the core of the high developing at a higher latitude might mean deeper cold advected later? Another option on the table for next week. let’s see how it progresses...
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Snow showers would be packing into eastern areas on a strengthening easterly breeze, associated uppers looking decent too.
Just one run and from within the envelope of cold forecast. Let’s see what the ECM has to say shortly...
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Nimbusman
Yeah straight northerlies without some oomph are a waste of space unless you live in Norfolk! I actually meant a NEE wind for here is the jackpot direction. As you say seen many 20cm falls from that.
Defo something brewing with regards to HLB into the next week. The Siberian high has been meandering with intent