adrianh
-
Posts
168 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by adrianh
-
Hard to not get excited now - it looks like we could be on the cusp on something epic for the majority of the country. Surely this evenings runs are the final hurdle to at least getting the cold in place!
-
About 8cm in South Sheffield. A good event, shame a thaw sets in quickly! Looking very good for the weekend still
-
A level 10 crisis in the main model thread - it lurches from euphoria to absolute dejection every 6 hours or so. For our region, things are still looking good for the weekend and beyond imo not to mention the likely moderate dumping (though temporary) for some of us later.
-
Amber warning now for the Yorkshire region tomorrow. Looking promising!
-
Arpege/GFS 06z is suggesting the snow may get into Yorkshire on Saturday morning. Euro 4 06z says it won't. I suspect we'll be on the edge of it at best but still time for a shift northwards (or south to completely put us out of the picture!)
-
Looks like the front will stall too far south of us again on Saturday but the models always seem to handle these battle ground scenarios with a large degree of uncertainty so perhaps we'll get lucky. Further snow chances on Tuesday. All marginal of course but as we've seen, they can deliver!
-
Wet snow falling here in south Sheffield. Decent elevation though (200m)
-
The models have been showing small tweaks in favour of extending cold for our region. Thursday looks right on the edge of marginality but could deliver with some elevation? Moving forward, I think things are still quite promising for us. Cold air is never that far away over the next week and small movements in the right direction could put is in the mix for more snow events as these fronts pass over the country.
-
Heavy snow here but not settling. A touch higher in the Peak District and there's a good covering though
-
Very pretty on the snowfields above Sheffield this morning!
-
Approx 7cm in South Sheffield (200m). We missed the sweet spot which was further east but more than satisfied
-
I thought we were done in Sheffield but the radar suggests some of the heavier stuff edging west again
-
The model thread is skewed by views of those down south who need much better synoptics to deliver. Still plenty of chances ahead and we have weeks of winter still left. Tomorrow morning is looking promising for my location but ill expect cold rain after the last debacle where the front just sat 30 miles away all day!
-
Models are all looking pretty decent both short and mid term and at least put us in with a chance of snowfall. Whether we get deep cold is another matter but its a million times better than last years horrific winter. The main model thread is such sombe reading with people keen to go looking for a West based NAO like some sort of bogeyman on every run
-
Thursday does appear to have potential for us again! - it's on the marginal side of course but at least we're in the mix
-
Arpege has most of Yorkshire in the mix for some midweek snow - perhaps there'll be some surprises for us further south on Wednesday night. Guess it'll be down to radar watching
-
Less expectation in S Yorkshire this time so won't be quite as disappointed with the likely cold rain. Mid term looks very promising. Hopefully it won't end up scuppered in the next few runs!
-
Despite much toy throwing on the main model thread, I dont think the models look too bad for our region after this mild blip, certainly there are plenty of options on the table.
-
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
adrianh replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very messy GFS. Lows and wedges of high pressure all over the place. Hard to tell what's going to happen beyond a few days in advance -
According to the Met Office, I've been under heavy snow for the last 4 hours whereas the radar reveals no precipitation at all and none within 20 miles or so. It's virtually useless in these marginal situations.
-
Shows how tricky it is to forecast snow even a few hours before the event. Anything on the marginal side and neither the models nor forecasters have the slightest idea which side it will fall on. At least most of us have seen a covering at some point over the past 2 weeks unlike further south.
-
Most disappointing failure yet! - I thought 200m would have been enough but sadly not and the last chance of snow from the current cold spell appears to be moving north of Sheffield
-
Another covering here this morning - smaller than the last 2. If Thursday/Friday could deliver something, I'd be quite happy with this spell even though its been disappointing to not have any extreme cold. The front tomorrow is still showing and if anything appears to gain some intensity as it reaches us - fingers crossed it won't be taken away from us at the last minute!
-
Looking like they might turn more readily to snow too. Might be a few surprises this afternoon after last nights damp squib
-
There's still the dangling carrot of that front moving down on Thursday/Friday just to drag this trauma out a bit longer!
