Stoxs

Thank you for the reply polar low. in regards to above post NAE isnt pushing atlantic through it has picked up a weak front in front of the main band that is still out west on this chart. if you dont like snow its a down grade!! shouldnt be to much snow with thiis but will make it gloomy. cheers stoxs

Ohh those were the days when TEITS was pinning an easterly at T384 as done deal. everyone else trying to find a cold northerly from a bartlet. got some cold weather over the U.K and watch a Lp off the atlantic slide off to Paris and give them a foot of snow! ehh Hang on! i think south wales and even south west is still ok at the moment for a decent fall any where east and North of there needs to keep watching. been here before and not worked out, personally i would like to see a better line with the english channel this then will keep the cold Air above the mild Air over france!! this would also give a better easterly than a south easterly. we shall see 2 more days watching them darm models!!

Heading up to your part of the country tomorrow, Newark to be precise. All looking o.k regarding weather ? Is there much snow cover still around? What starte are the roads in? replies mucha ppreciated in anticipation cheers Stoxs

yea it could Snow thursday as well!!!! ramp ended

Well the check list for a decnet snow event is being ticked Cold Air embedding into the area ( definiatlly tonight it`s getting real cold out there) PPN heading in off the Atlantic (yes as long as the track is still current in 72hrs) Looking good so far still plenty of time for Pete tong to rear his head . Keep upto date with the latest muttering round the forum, for our area an upgrade will be a 100mile shift south west. A down grade would be a 100 mile shift east or a 300 mile shift west! both still possible right upto the PPN heading in T6 to T0 now wheres my sledge!!

The way this is going and have seen it before , Nick Sussex will be hoping it goes south of him!! I think the models have calmed down a bit now, more concistancey witht he genearl pattern from each run, which is a real good thing as there was no chance of making head nor tail of it before. It will still change, there is no real detail YET for friday and the weekend. But a 10 day cold spell will do for the starters! but i would like to see whats on the Main menu! ahh then the dessert!!

Well i will go to sea in a boat, when did they move the IOW then? I am sure it was at the bottom of HAMPSHIRE last time i looked! Must have slid west at some point LOL

tonights PPn over Wales I really cant see it hitting anywhere in Hampshire(sorry) west wiltshire/ dorset should be its most eastward . Devon /Cornwall its most west , until midnight when the northerly wind influence could push it a lilttle further west

WOW this looks alittle familiar to me! thank you Weather Historian

giving a bit of rotation form the northerly wind it will run dorset/ wiltshire at a guess, when i first saw it i thought Sailsbury. think i will be in bed before that gets here!! if it got here!

might have just scraped 1cm!! kids did make a few snow balls!! was still lying around on roofs at 9am.

there was lying snow out this way wallop, Weyhill . Was you snow less at wallop? as others have said it was 90% rain by 10am. nice while it lasted, blimey the ground is wet now though! There has been a real trend for the last 3 or 4 days for an atlantic attack around friday/ saturday, where and if this will produce minimal snow moderate snow or bucket loads is still undecided. How far the snow band gets east and for the return to rain gets east is well Up in the air!! Also there has been a distinct slow minor shift south which is great for us down here as long as it dose not end up through france!! A shift south would help all alot as it would more likely stay as snow for longer! All to play for, very interesting Models and weather Better than RAIn .....

well i think The GFS,ECM,UKMO, T120 PV GH SW going SSW with LP on the JS around the NA sliding round the UK into biscay at T144, this also lets the HP over Sc head NNW and the SW head SE into EA. while the SSW ? Finally FI is F1 at T 12 P.S the PPn lght at T24 due to snow one having a clue

that attachment is as much use as tits on a bull!!! we all ned to wait i am affraid what willl be will be

snow flakes 75% now in any PPn falling some big flakes mixed in there still rain also. mid hampshire. wish i was 100mtr higher!

i can report some sleet at around 3pm here mid hampshire. best we have had so far this winter. quick look through the latest GFS run and it is trending to stay cold for most well into next week, there will be times when south/ south west might turn milder for a while . I think i have seen the first evidence of SSW on the GFS, polar vortex showing major stress with 2 large streaks of warm air heading right through the middle. This can only bode well for the next few weeks if cold ya thing. remeber many of our area have seen snow this winter this time it might be others who see it.

double wammy for the artic there as well , thats how it can get blown apart!! nice little trend to watch lets have some more greenies over greenland!!

I would much preffer the risk to be higher monday than that, chances down here seam to be reducing ever so slightly each run. only around 40% for here monday. 95% wednesday with 1 mm!!! tsk hardly enough to dust a christmas cake. oh well we have downers and lets hope for some uppers!

to keep on topic tonight current conditions, just started to rain here in the last hour, not much but a bit. think most of us will have to wait until monday to see any decent setlling snow, going to be marginal for most and with wet ground thoses poor little flakes tomorrow will disolve before they have lived!!

thank you

thats better!!lol

No one should be dismissing the chance of seeing snow in the next 5-7 days. Have you ever tried playing pin the tail on the donkey? whilst drunk , blind folded and a very small donkey! well that would be easyer than predicting if any snow will be in any part of the uk let alone 200miles or so. relax enjoy the ride and be pleased if it comes off. keep watching the experts on here as the situation will change

wots up Aj u got a nasty cought here, better keep out the cold and stay indoors for the next week!!

I appreciate there are many top forcasters like yourself john. You were singled out due to the massive experiance you have LOL thank you for your infomation. I can see technology catching up with nature to be honest maybe 40 years is to soon but unexpected weather events could well be a thing of the past! Look how technolgy has improved in the last 40 years! Weather/ nature still the same? current technolgy/ forecasts are amazing really with more and more regular accurate winter/summer forecasts occuring. thank you all again

cheers phil yes i know how the models are fed with current infomation , I am trying to establish how they deal with the infomation, so in 10 years time will these models witht the same info inputted produce the same results? I guess fine tuning of the program running it is how it will improve. otherwise as i said in 40 years time i can imagine the weather models to be 100 times than they are now. say FI being 6months!!!! lol the weather dosnt get any more difficult to predict it has done this for 2013 years atleast! wil have a look at your links. if any has any input to this subject it would be gratefully recieved