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Stoxs

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  1. Stoxs
    right i will try my questino here as it was just deleted from the model discussion thread . going on from the massive variables at close range. Do the models have or use past cinarios to help produce current model runs? I.e will they take on board recent events then next time this sort of situation occurs they mightbe better placed to deal with it. A top forcaster like john Holmes with many many many years experiance will be able to interprit the model information and put his own twist on it with his knowledge. In 40 years time will my grandchildren be sat here having a panic attack when the threat of snow is forecast. Please if this is in the wrong thread MOVE do not delete, Thank you. hope someone can help, cheers
  2. Stoxs
    OIIII you aint the only one in this area!!!
  3. Stoxs
    AGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
  4. Stoxs
    of course its bad management, i take it you are management of this center? If you cant keep expensive plants safe from frost then dont buy them, only take orders and sell only to order, or get some heating in there!! OHHH not my fault!!! tsk typical uk nation wide , we never had tempeture in the last 5 years down to this so we will never ever again get tempeture down to this! not snowed for 10 years so never ever going to snow again, If we dont see snow before the mellenium we will never see it again in thisi country!!
  5. Stoxs
    why? Not really going to effect any agricultural business this tiem of year unless the gorund stays frozen for weeks on end. Winter crops that are planted will be fine. Most in agriculture will enjoy being able to move around without mud upto there knees! Any way very interesting model runs today, picture changing every time, I think the 18z GFS as swung to far slightly but i would be happy to eat yellow snow if its wrong. And today in the model thread i saw my first Polar Low mentioned! PMSL, not bad as it is usually mentioned first in November when the first frost arrives. I think we are long way from such events as Polar Lows, but a welcome relief if it verifies after the dredded december 2012 !!! Still think next week is up for grabs and we will see small changes but in this situaton can make a big difference.
  6. Stoxs
    IOW snow!!!! check list! 1, full model agreement= NO 2, Ian Brown saying it will be mild n rain= Yes 3, icebergs in the channel= NO 4, Are the cliffs white= Yes 5,Can you see the Mainland= No 6, Are your teeth chattering= NO not yet might see a bit falling through sat evening, not likely to see snow settleing until sunday this is a guess
  7. Stoxs
    the ECM for example is showing a LP to our north running down the country during monday bringing with it PPN, witht he cold air well established by then this should be of the white stuff. The 18z GFS has decided this LP goes north not south and this in turn stops the HP in the Atlantic ridging to Greenland and providing us with a block , By block i mean that the Atlantic and Jetstream cant push LP through with mild air attached. If the GFS 18z is right then the HP is over the UK and we have dry but chilly weather for the start of next week. very complecated situation as is any weather forcast, especially when we are sat on a tiny island surrounded by warm water!
  8. Stoxs
    Ian Brown if you have picked this as a good trend and it comes true against the other models and proffesional forecasters then i think you should be the senior forecaster of the METO! This is a complement not an insult, you were rigth in december 12 to be very cautious pre the disaster!! And on other occasions you stood up and produced info to go against the grain. good on you. but for the sake of the coldies in the U.K , hope you are wrong!!
  9. Stoxs
    clear skies and a good frost set in sat evening and sunday showers should be fine. Agree saturday should be a wet wet wet snow event. unless..............................
  10. Stoxs
    As on many occasions the GFS pushes for a zonal west to east default. IF this is correct then the other models might be nearer the more possible solution. very interesting and as always in the U.k a potential knife edge to the right outcome.
  11. Stoxs
    If Paul strips any thing else off we will be all blushing!!!! Not seen charts like this since ummm ... december 2012.. darn it!! No serious with all the back ground infomation that has been forcast this is the result, real cold conditions to discribe it as a few frosts is a bit tame. Just becarefull what you all wish for as it could come true
  12. Stoxs
    And look at that first chart The M4 corridoor doing its job again, holding all that snow south of it! Hang on! really need a few more runs first as you say it could well be gone tomorrow only to reapear a few days time, who knows. Hope this rain dont keep driving in like it is otherwise it will be waders for xmas not sledges.
  13. Stoxs
    real worring times for anyone in a high risk area, but one result for me would be the sea side about 20miles nearer!! sorry no offence. Wont be the first real major storm in december would it, been a few over the years. As others have said it will put some real pressure on the ground water exits if we get 2 or 3 days of rain now. Lets hope it down grades or even better heads off through france !!! this will leave us in cold easterly winds and some S***. A big straw clutch there not likely . I think we will see a milder few days but as i said yesterday it could well be a tempory blip. the russian high pressure reall wil eat up most things fired at it , Best to keep watching the models and listening to the lads n lasses who know thier stufff.
  14. Stoxs
    All togeather now........... Who do you think you are kidding mr GFS if you think old Englands Down!! da daada dada daaadaddadaadaaaaaa just reminds me of the starting sequence to dads army we are being attacked from all angles and we sit in the middle with bugger all!! DONT PANIC MR MANNERING!!!!!!
  15. Stoxs
    Would you like some twezzers? Real unknown end to this week weather wise, all possibilities within 600 miles of each other. One thing that is certain i feel is the weather will be in the media towards the end of the week, for which reason i dont know. Looking forward to a further cold week, following on form the last one which was chilly at times, a 2 week old spell for the start of winter not bad. as long as the HP to our east stays there then a shot at some cold weather is always on the cards!
  16. Stoxs
    As Ian and others have pointed out these latest charts look and act unreal, where we end up who knows. I am just glad i aint getting paid to stand up in front of a camera and tell all what its going to be like by the end of the week! I have been here to long to belive much that the models throw out, i did get suckered into the latest one because it looked to good for cold/snow and expected it to be half what it showed not event hought it could be the total opposit! amazing certain there will be a few surprises in store in the following week.
  17. Stoxs
    Hi Nick Now i am not going hunting for it but i am sure you posted a very simliar quote last thursday/wednesday have we really been on the polar express that long and now ended up back where qwe started? My opinion is this set up is changing all the time and slowly heading down the cold tunnel again, i can see this warmer trend that was progged for the next 2/3 weeks by some erode andc ould end up a few days at best if not less. need to wait and see.
  18. Stoxs
    yes and 3 days ago 90% were showing no atlantic force at all! -8 all the way to T384, Really no point in looking any further ahead than wednesday/ thursady at the moment. Very interesting models at the moment , I found the charts comparing 62/63 to the current ones most intersting and something i am going to watch for now. The weather will be what it will be, no one/ model will change that!
  19. Stoxs
    evening all, Wha\t a cold day, really felt it today and not been outside as usual but in a class room. frost struggled to leave the grass and did start to reappear. Temps seam to be rising alittle now as predicted. Interesting model predictions again today, potential for some cold weather next week still on the cards, t what exptent and for how long it will last is still unknown. All in all a real nice feel to the start of december.
  20. Stoxs
    If you look on the net weather forum there is a whole area for learing and understanding what things are and how they work, John Holmes explains things much better than i do best to read what he has written. As said there are many factors to understand to see if there is potential for snow, any way i am off back to the models to see the 18z stagger home,
  21. Stoxs
    M4 snow curtain works again!!, less likely to see alot down here from this, yes the PPN will be here but temps to high. Sleet at best, Patience is needed down here it will come.
  22. Stoxs
    well DAm is Dry Air Mass for it to snow at sea level the DAM needs to be below 528 bit lower would be ideal. there are many more pieces to fall into place to get snow at sea level like the wet buld temp , dew point , air tempeture, Dam, I start getting out of depth after this but hope it might help if you follow the model discussion.
  23. Stoxs
    If you would like to know any info there are plenty on here that will help, be it understanding weather charts or what the ground conditions would be like if these charts come of Ask away AJ is here he will answer LOL
  24. Stoxs
    One run dosnt make a Snow fest, At the earlyest this time tomorrow will firm things up. Ideally another 2 12z runs. As for forecasting snow at this range 7days+ is impossible let alone if it will make it from one side to the other on our postage stamp island. As said before lets have the Cold hard frosts first some PPN will arrive in time, from which direction it wont matter if the cold is embeded. The one difference with the current data showing is it`s not appearing at 300hr and gone by 192, this is appearing at 192hrs !
  25. Stoxs
    Christmas Paty night at the GFS HQ so with all the sloe gin and mulled wine consumed wait for the 18z, superb model run there as steve has said we have seen this before and ended up with rain and +10 SW. Next step will be the ensembles, then tomorrows model runs , but what a chance! The big dipper roller coaster has arrived and taken on passengers wil it leave the station on the Polar Express?
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