StretfordEnd1996

Yes not sure about EC (which I have always believed has a better ensemble set than the GFS) but for what its worth The GEFS shows a collection of colder runs around that timeframe Amongst others All of which are just a NW/N'ly flow nothing overly dramatic

Firming up on some of the finer details for the upcoming cooler spell - starting with some T2 temps - looking chilly Sunday midday - temperatures widely around the mid single figures or colder for most Sunday dawn temperatures around freezing or below for the majority of the UK Actually wouldn't be surprised if these trend a tad lower nearer the time - certainly a frost for most under clear skies ECM thereafter shows the HP toppling in Eventually leading to more zonal westerly winds However by the very end of the run does show a hint of ridging to the W/NW trying to take place with a more NW'ly flow GEFS ensembles overnight A nice little chunk do dip cooler beyond D10 and show this NW'ly solution - but no members show anything more than just standard NW'ly incursions This means to me there's not a lot in the way of overly mild coming up in the next 2 weeks - nor nothing overly cold.. in a bit of no mans land really, not often I see this at this time of year

GEFS Looking verrryyy chilly out until D6/7 Thereafter looking a tad flat and a tad boring if I may say! Over to tomorrow's runs now.. tomorrow's another day.

By +240 an area of HP shows signs of trying to push towards Greenland (again) Into deep FI doesn't quite happen but still would turn colder again If 144+ is FI these days then what's 240+. DFI? Deep FI perhaps..

Mehh .. not nice looking charts out towards D7-10.. But hey every chance for twists and turns

18z looks a tad further east to me

Uppers hovering around -4 to -6 for many this weekend according to the ICON 18z

Some great charts in there - most of which as I alluded to before are perhaps more 'temporary cold' situations with the winds in from the N/NW all as toppler scenario's - now my opinion on those types of setups is 'thank goodness we're not experiencing mild SW'lies' rather than 'Hating these rubbish PM incursions - where on earth is the freezer from the East' !

Let's just give it a couple of days or so - we can't expect the models to constantly show a cold spell otherwise what would be the point in following the models.. it'd just get boring! GFS for example in the longer term at +240 hours - I am in the opinion that from here if something like that were to come off it could go anyway - there's every chance those heights could push back up to the North again and form a more organised block, but also a chance that they could built to the South as part of a Euroslug...

Thus let's not remember that's completely expected at this time of year (a zonal pattern)

Well I'd be a tad surprised if the December CET is milder than average by lets say December 10th - judging by these ensembles First 5 days look very cold and below average - a warm up thereafter but then mild air looks very far away. I'd personally be a tad surprised if the December CET came out over 0.5'C above average There are now a good considerable bunch of ensembles that show a cool down after the warm up - with the ensemble average below average (and this continues until the end of the suit). Granted - virtually all of these colder ensembles are seeing just a standard polar maritime influence from the NW/WNW as opposed to a more potent cold spell (at this stage anyway).

GFS shows that it may actually take a good couple of days after the HP has toppled in next week before we feel the effects on the ground Well into the next working week we're still seeing very cold temperatures well after the HP toppled through A perfect cold spell in my opinion minus the lack of snow for the majority of us (though that's still not completely confirmed) Beyond that out towards 240+ and beyond it does look a tad more mobile and zonal this morning I must say - though little in the way of us being sat right under a huge Azores High (its really not that type of pattern) The result of which means whilst the uppers are no longer cold they certainly are a long long way off being mild Have a feeling though that this won't be the endgame the latter half of next week

Cold uppers continue to be shown for next weekend

Up until only recently I longed considered anything up until 240 to be within the 'reliable timeframe' - I think that's always been the traditionally accepted one but I've quickly realized that that isn't true at all and its more like 144 (at the very most!) For longer trends beyond say 198 I look at the GEFS ensembles as I feel they can often do a good job of highlighting the slightest of trends - but these latest sets aren't eye candy really after the initial cooler spell with the op an outlier (though not by much). Still - there are a fair few that toy with the -5 uppers after around D10 - it looks far from mild - but not convincing yet..

Yes of course - and as I said since Winter's not started yet that's why there's no need to worry about that just yet. I think you know in your head that you need to be patient, you actually said that in an earlier post today or yesterday. I'm liking the chances of continued N/NW'lies to be honest as I think they may eventually be able to produce something bigger out of the bag. Times on our side Crewe - I'm sure you know that.

We have a 4 day cold spell coming up and Winter's not started yet. Posts like this especially in the model thread do get me a little down to be honest - I don't feel they're on point. This is a long long way out but the GFS has been toying with it throughout today and it remains a plausible option in the longer term - Will have to wait at least a few days to see if it manages to stay into the more reliable timeframe - plus eagerly awaiting the 18z GEFS.

HP topples in on Monday with the GFS18z but it still looks chilly on that day though at least.

Thanks for this - much appreciate your response

What exactly is it we're looking for in terms of the arrow - sorry a little bit novice when it comes to this detail

It depends how far out you're looking - if it's the next 14 days or so then yes absolutely.. but beyond that - well just because the AO and NAO are trending positive doesn't mean they'll remain in that state throughout the rest of the winter. The start we're seeing and the output the models are currently producing is a contrast to what we usually experience and expect at this time of year. Potential is at large supply in my opinion. I respect yours too but I'm just saying I have a feeling you may be a tad surprised I'm liking the uppers shown in the charts for next weekend - it's a shame the whole event has been slightly toned down today but still a very cold and chilly start to the season.

Let's not worry to much about how an FI cold spell my break down early or fail before we even know it exists. GEFS ensembles look like after the initial HP toppling over it doesn't result in this then leading to a strong painful Azores that we often see at this time of year. Instead it would probably allow for a large range of scenarios with the possibility of further HP to the West and North Will be a good few days or maybe even more though at the very earliest until I think we will see the next really interesting exciting runs that have a bit of plausibility in them. So much to play for and winters not even started yet.. I think we'd all have taken this!

GFS shows the cold uppers fading away by D7. Still the ECM to come but overall today's output is a tad lacklustre to yesterdays - but not overly so; we still have coolish uppers which should give us frosts and some nice cold dry days. Would still just about be cold enough for wintry precipitation should any occur but that looks unlikely at this stage Still only Monday too so you never know, we may yet see more twists and turns with the HP shunted a tad further W/NW again. Additionally - I'll be keeping a tiny lose eye on GFS and GEFS FI post-toppler rolling in..

UKMO looks rather similar to the GFS 6z with HP a tad further East than what we've seen and looks ready to topple through after Sunday Hopefully we'll see it modelled a tad back West again in the GFS and ECM 12z

Well it's more in line with the GFS and UKMO perhaps but certainly not the GEM or ECM .. Here's the +168 ICON view - The HP looking a tad flimsy and looks as if it'd topple in quicker (it's flimsy in pushing up towards Greenland too) Also of interest is the small 'break' in colder uppers around that timeframe By the end it is about to come in over the country In fact non of the uppers look particularly cold (as in freezing) throughout the run, with -4 to -6 at the most looking more likely. Pfft - it's only the ICON anyway. It's not like I started dancing when it showed a favourable output the other day. xD

ICON gets the cooler air in a tad quicker during this run compared to its previous one - Here's midday Saturday on the 0z And the latest