StretfordEnd1996

I would say, in the last few days, away from the sunshine (which naturally at this time of year just feels warm no matter the temperature) it has felt relatively cool at times - cooler than it often can be at this time of year.. But one thing I've seen so often in recent years is just how easy it is to tap in to much warmer air from the South. Used to be the case where it'd require a good few days of model chasing and patience, but so often these days it just seems to 'happen' - where we draw up mild/hot air so easily from the South. Mind, with HP appearing to be based to our NW/Nish perhaps for now temperatures will hold up mostly on the average or slightly cooler side for the next week or two.

I'm not sure it'd be cold enough on the day itself for a large portion of the country - But forward 24 hours and we've got it right there -

Looking at the 18z you've just referenced I'm struggling to find those tentative signs of a more mobile pattern as we head into the final days of the year .. Brrrrrrr!

Now where do we go from here Looking interesting still

Push further North is good although not quite as far North at this timeframe +168 as the 12z (though we're talking margins! 12z 18z

I'm not so sure about that Staff with those uppers and that pattern - it's close but not close enough really I don't really know what to think of that ECM to be honest as it doesn't really give us many hints as to where things are heading, just leaves us in a sort of inbetween have-a-guess pattern! Eagerly awaiting to see the ENS

Do you have any charts you could potentially share with us to back this up? Agreed - I really am encouraged by the 06z ensembles this morning - the op was one of the more milder solutions in the suit (which is all down to where it places the HP for the duration of the period) I'd be delighted with a frosty and foggy Christmas too! I have picked a festive looking chart (temperature wise) to put me in that spirit

I'm liking the look of the 6z GEFS this morning - it offers a fair amount of members really keen on sending those heights towards the N/NW of us And to pick a few out of the bag

Yep, differences with this one 00z^ 06z^ 22nd December

Some of these GEM charts this morning are really sending shivers down my spine All just a distant dream at the moment but we're heading in the right direction - albeit there's plenty of road blocks potentially to navigate around along the way yet. You don't often get uppers as good as this^. Chilly freezing temperatures - both day and night! ^Snow accumulation from something like this will be going no where fast for the 25th.. We can dream!

Continued interest going forward this morning - the ECM and GFS don't quite get to that cold injection we're all looking for but still has promise - But thankfully our friend the GEM (definitely the most reliable of the 3!) Certainly does - It is the coldest looking run compared to the rest of the suit, mind -

I remember it well, don't we all! (Although, I thought it broke down about 5-7 days before the planned event, rather than T72? I may be wrong!! From the way I see it at the moment, we're not really in that sort of situation yet anyway where we're looking at a confident, full model agreement of a huge Greenland High or a strong Easterly wind - instead we're at the start of the journey seeing some great eye candy charts but we're a bit of a way yet of seeing anything confirmed or in the bag when it comes to Wintry weather .. but it's certainly an interesting exciting period that's for sure.

Some great looking charts tonight but I'm still a little on the pessimistic side as it stands right now in terms of 'White' Christmas - (or indeed snowfall of a notable extent at any period in the next 1-2 weeks) .. all depends on the location of the high etc. As ever with a more Easterly influence precipitation is often somewhat limited but it depends on a number of things..

I'm not sure if it's completely on its own, as far as the 6z go anyway Admittedly that chart you posted looks the beefiest out of the range, but it's not in total isolation. I've been keeping my eye on this for a day or so - I think personally it will mostly fall as rain even on the leading edge but we'll see (though being overnight I'll likely be sleeping!) Whatever happens we can say with much more confidence that by dawn temperatures will be much higher - I wonder if we'd wake up to nothing or maybe a slushy melting mess.

It's not the outlook one would be particularly fond of for the rest of this month but I take heart in that there's plennnttyy of time for hot dry weather to return - this includes September..

When I woke up this morning and left the house at around 07:00 I must say it felt pretty chilly, this was me with just a t-shirt on (it is mid-Summer after all!) Not sure what the actual temperature was but I think my car said something like 7'C Everything was wet (dew) and it just had a 'whiff' of Autumn It did feel very September like, particularly since by lunchtime over at the office with the sun out it felt absolutely boiling to be fair..

Yep good spot, I picked up on this a bit earlier and it presents itself quite clearly in the 6z GEFS D7-10 looks a bit cooler now than it did yesterday with the uppers trying to threaten -5 for some locations will be interesting to see if that develops any further.

There's certainly a few reasons to have a little bit of interest in the more longer term beyond D10 (purely based on the GEFS ensembles and rightfully so at that range) - see postage stamps below 1st March is a long long way away but there is a bit of early agreement there that high pressure is trying to do 'something' around that timeframe - and by nature a handful of ensembles (such as the one you posted) happen to have that area of HP to our west/northwest opening the door for cold again. But before all that .. I'm wondering if I'll be getting a sweaty forehead for the first time in a while at some point next week!

I'm seeing signs that around D10 and slightly beyond we could be looking at something in the way of more organised areas of high pressure sitting over or around the UK GFS+240 GFS+252 ECM+240 Attention will be on where this high pressure ends up in the more longer term. Is this below suggesting a slight inkling towards locating the HP to the N/NW as time goes on.

I posted some pictures earlier too from Uppermill at about 170m above sea level - certainly a good 2-3cm or more on some surfaces and definitely more than a light 'coating' which is nice. As I said earlier - it's not much really in the grand scheme of things, it's not going to be a day of snowfall that I will be telling my kids when I'm older but it just didn't appear to have been in the forecast, it seemed to out-fox the Met Office a little bit (who produced a warning about 5 hours late) and it stuck extremely well on soaking wet surfaces that had seen drizzle and rain overnight where temperatures were too mild. A very good day of snow-watching and as others have alluded too - probably just about wins over everything we had in 19-20 and 18-19 (more so the former).

Potentially yes - I'm 170m but got a good covering, and places around me as low as 130m have had coverings too - Warmer uppers down towards the Midlands perhaps?

Some further snowy scenes - I honestly really expected virtually nothing from this, just a bit of wet snow and a slushy covering in the morning at best - but it's turned out to be a steady fall for the majority of the day so far now. It's now stopped somewhat and behind it is a wintry sort of mix - but nice to see the accumulations and I expect a bit of snow may last on the ground into tomorrow with a bit of luck. Not bad for day 4 (out of 90) for the Winter.. PS, yes I have checked in with the office in Leigh and they aren't able to offer similar pictures back. Sorry guys xD

The MO seemed happy to supply me with temperatures no higher than freezing up until the early evening now - I don't agree though

It is starting to stick quite well now for me Those flakes though look like they are becoming pretty wet, I'd be a tad surprised if the grass isn't more green again by the end of the afternoon Must say - the snowfall this morning has out-foxed me a bit and possibly quite a few others too, I didn't expect it to accumulate anywhere below say 250/300m+ but that isn't the case - it's more like 150m+ Thus, a lack of a Met Office warning is notable and I think a pretty poor showing on their behalf - a large handful of routes over the Pennines in these parts I don't think will be at all passable with any ease

The picture below looks a little dull - in reality it looks a bit more whiter and prettier out of my window with a small coating of snow on the grass (Uppermill, Greater Manchester - 170m asl) Hills around me I cannot really see as it's so dull but I suspect some of them have a good 10cm or more on 12:15 - it's still snow rather than sleet or rain, but I suspect it may only be a matter of time until the latter two arrive as temperatures and dews rise this afternoon