StretfordEnd1996

FYI those two Autumns were 2010 and 2012. Can't remember them off the top of my head in huge detail but I think they both just had a decent mix of everything - a bit of after-Summer sun, gales at times, rain, early snowfall etc. Exactly what I wish every Autumn was like..!

Will be interesting to see whether we get another above 11.0'C CET this Autumn Likely IMO. Only been 29 or so 11.0+ CET Autumns on record, a large portion which have happened in the last 50 years or so On the other hand could I be totally wrong and we record only our second single-figure CET of this century.

In all fairness I think ever since this feature was being modelled it could of been described as 'the briefest of plume events' - unless I'm mistaken at no point have I ever seen it last longer than 24 hours or so so I'm not sure if we've seen much of a downgrade in that respect but I acknowledge the temperatures on the ground may not as high as they may have looked a few days ago (when there was a bit of talk of 34-36'C etc). This is the GFS forecast temperatures for Friday showing south eastern areas perhaps just about scraping 30'C - I often think it underestimates these a bit so perhaps give it 31-32'C The lower ground temps are as a consequence of slightly lower uppers than what we saw a day or two ago But I don't imagine there's two many heat lovers who would be very disappointed at temperatures of 24-32'C widely (north to south) As I said a slight slight downgrade on ground temps by 1-3'C this morning if you want to call it a downgrade but the fact of the matter is we're still on course for a day or so of very warm or hot temperatures for most on Friday - at no point was it ever supposed to last much longer than a day or so Let's also not get carried away - it's mid June, not late July/early August - should this feature of happened then, then we may have been looking at temperatures widely well into the 30s.

Should the rest of the month post this Friday/Saturday turn out to be similar to the opening 13 days or so, it would indeed be something of a reflection of the current day and age of predominantly crazy uppers and associated ground temps we get nowadays (when we get brief little incursions of air up from the South) if this month's CET comes out notably above average i.e. 1.0+ - all caused by this crazy bout of heat for 24-48 hours this weekend. I personally would not be surprised but it's so hard to say. I personally feel it may indeed hugely reduce the chances of it being a colder than average month but I'd still for now expect it to come something between 0.0 and 1.0 above average.

Who's up for some hot weather later this week Admittedly lasting around 24 hours or less But it's something!

A bit of a mixed day here but mostly not really a Summer's day of note - we had a heavy shower move through late afternoon and a few are popping up again now. It's been mostly cloudy (rather than sunny) and breezy too so not the best summer's day I've ever seen.

I use this very handy archive on NOAA's website to look at previous warm and cold episodes by season - this goes back around 70 years A quick glance some Winter's that have occurred at the end of a relatively long La Nina period - 56-57 - after Nina conditions since mid-1954, the La Nina officially ended early August 1956 and extremely light -ONI conditions persisted through the following Winter which was very mild (CET 5.5'C) 72-73 and 76-77 - These two Winter's both occurred off the back of previous 2-3 years of La Nina dominance but I don't think they are particularly useful to use to compare to for this year as they both had moderate to strong El Nino's which I don't think will be happening at all this Winter. 85-86 - I'd forgotten until just glancing over this data that there's a huge gap from 1976 until 1983 whereby no La Nina occurred. Thus - early Fall 1983 to around late Summer 1985 was mostly -ONI dominated (with two separate moderate-ish La Nina's) and the following Winter after this was 85-86 which quite gingerly boasts a February CET of -1.1'C. ( ?) 00-01 - 2000-2001 was still in La Nina territory (which had began back in 1998) however by this Winter it was weakening, perhaps akin to what we may see this year. Winter 2000-01 had it's moments and had some quite memorable wintry periods especially the further North you go (bit of a relief after the endless mild of the late 1990s). 2001-02 is perhaps worthy of a mention as it was the first Winter therefore after this La Nina officially ended (though it ended around March 2001 - so again different to what we are going to see this year). I'd therefore use 00-01 as a good analogue for this year but not 01-02. (01-02 was mostly mild and forgettable Winter). 08-09 - after 3-4 years of mostly La Nina territory (with a small break 06-07) 2008-2009 was a very weak La Nina Winter and was often cold with plenty of wintry spells 12-13 - previous couple of years were La Nina dominated, the La Nina ended around early Summer 2012 and the ONI actually dipped slightly positive by Winter (before weakening again during it) so probably different to what we'll see this year but nonetheless 12-13 was a cold winter with wintry spells at times So all in all a bit of a mixed bag here but there are some nice winters in there In my opinion I'm not entirely sure if there is any particular link or anomaly for Winters which have followed a long La Nina period but it was interesting to do a bit of a desktop survey on this either way...

Sometimes I type in "Granada weather" into Google (Granada as in ITV) and Google instead returns some fantastic hot weather and temperature for the Spanish city rather than good old Granadaland.. Mind, tomorrow not looking too shabby?

Yep always time for a pint in the buffet bar ...! I love Stalybridge it's always been a bit of a mini-hotbed for train enthusiasts - historically there were many more railway lines in and around the town as well (pre Beeching).. As for the weather, I was working in Bolton this morning when that "squall line" came through. The shower you're referring too, I'm not sure if it was a squall line but my parents got absolutely soaked to the bone out on a walk here in Uppermill. It's odd to this respect that "squall lines" (or indeed short but intense heavy bursts) often happen more than once per day on the days they do happen, considering they are otherwise relatively rare .. a bit like the old two buses come at once analogy ..

It's extremely common for this to happen these days but I am still within the belief that it's not a complete guarantee. Stranger things have happened.

I'm not sure if I'm correct on this but I seem to recall a good few pleasant and sunny Septembers in recent decades. Perhaps again this year it won't let us down should the Summer turn out to be one to forget!

Think I've had a few overnight lows in January in recent times which haven't got below 11-12'C. Awful weather :O

It is Summer isn't it Joking aside I wholeheartedly agree with you - just a load of grey, drizzly wet nothingness - the rain wasn't actually that heavy until a couple of hours ago where it became much more heavy and persistent. That's stopped though now but once again, it's just so bleak out there..

I do remember it as that infamous "BBQ Summer" - I personally wasn't too bothered or upset with the MO though as I seem to recall at the time there was huge media hype which is where the headline came from, it all got a little OTT in the end and most of the UK public were lead to believe that the Met Office know absolutely nothing and we should all be annoyed at them - I thought it was all a bit unfair... As it was I enjoyed the Summer which was very mixed and had the best of both worlds, albeit July itself was largely forgettable from a dry weather perspective. I also remember September was relatively pleasant as well with warm and dry spell although I acknowledge this isn't really part of the Summer. As I've said a few times in different threads recently, to me it was just another season back then whereby there was a nice eclectic mix of this and that throughout the season - nothing too ridiculous, nothing too dramatic like +2.5'C over the monthly mean that we see so often these days - just the good old British weather producing and giving us all a fair share of the whip. Looking back on it also gives me chance to remember again that between 2006 and 2013 we didn't really have a hot dry Summer - I always find this quite interesting for some reason.

agreed.. In all fairness I always usually noticed growing up how late May/early June often does bring unsettled conditions - I suppose the same goes for like it's unusual to see deep Autumn in early September or deep Winter in early December.. and so forth.. But yes putting a light on in the middle of a late May afternoon does sound rather upsetting! One thing I completely ignored today up until my bike ride around 19:00 was just how breezy and windy it was out there, took me by surprise

31st December 1996 for my location had moderate snowfall throughout the day (well I don't remember this as I was a tiny baby but images from that day inform me otherwise!). Lead me to think - how many snowy New Year's Eve's have we had since? 2001 and 2002 both had cold spells around that timeframe but I don't think snow actually fell (of note, anyway) on the 31st. 2003 I suppose did - but for my location 170m above sea level even here it was pretty wet in nature and thawed quick the next day But since those I'm struggling to recall anything - even 2009 (admittedly 31st December 2009 was right between two fantastic cold spells but again I don't recall snow falling on that day).

May I ask what do you use to record your rainfall totals - I want to start recording them myself but I'm a novice when it comes to these things!

Wasn't quite expecting this amount of rainfall around the region this late into the afternoon though admittedly it's mostly in the south and east of the region Slightly brighter now here in Leigh but the cloud cover is hiding the sun for the most part.

Yes all a bit dull and dark and drizzly isn't it this morning - kind of almost had an Autumnal feel earlier which I know seems a silly thing to say in May but next couple of days fingers crossed a bit more brightness and a bit more dryness to at least finish the week with some satisfaction. Still looking chilly at times though into early next week

2008-09 perhaps?

Nothing more classic and customary to see the good old North West and only the North West getting the share of the rain this morning. Mind, once this clears off which hopefully it will do by the afternoon I am expecting a relatively dry and rain-free couple of days possibly until early next week now. With a bit of sun it should feel more than pleasant.

I personally thought snowfall (of note, away from the highest hills in Scotland and maybe England) was an extremely rare occurrence but judging by some of the replies here, I am off the mark. 1981, 1982, 1987, 1989, 1993, 1995 and 1997 - the latter of which I have heard about previously and I have seen the archived BBC forecast. That's 7 out of 15 years there... That brings me to ask the question, have we barely seen anything in the way of May snowfall of note since the 1990s? or maybe I just don't pay attention to it! Latest snowfall of note (on the ground, sticking) here was April 29th 2016. As others have echoed, when we talk about snowfall in May I didn't expect Southport and Ormskirk to be two towns in the firing line considering their locations on the NW coast, where any snowfall of note has become something of a rare thing in these parts in recent times..

I was initially predicting a much more organised band of showers moving across the region around midday today - as it is as the moment they are very few and far between and spotty in nature. But looking a little more in the way of unsettled generally tomorrow AM.

Yep completely agree that was what my comment was based off too - get a whiff of the plume and the temperatures really ramp up these days across the country. Uppers always seem intense and high. Away from that though - happily it's nice to see just a bit of normal typical weather for once that follows the law of averages - the average daily max for my area at this time of year is around 14/15'C and a quick peak at the next 5 days forecast temps I have 14, 15, 13, 15, 14, 13. It's nice sometimes to just have a nice average spell of weather that isn't milder than average..!

14.7 please thank you I'm not expecting anything significantly below average as that just doesn't seem to happen these days but I'm not entirely convinced it will be a much warmer than average month either.