StretfordEnd1996

As we're perhaps firming up on some HP coming more into play by the end of the second week - it's not a surprise that there's going to be a couple of real, deep freezer GEFS members as some of these will host the HP in a favorable position for colder weather. Main bet at the moment for that time frame would be something close to what the op is showing - HP to rise close to/over the country which could still mean some chilly ground temperatures indeed.

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be one of those horrible wet days when there's bucket load of puddles everywhere. People getting soaked. Having to smoke my ciggies half-in-half-out the front door, much to my other half's annoyance.

I'll refrain from asking how often you change them then. In truth I don't think they've actually changed all that much in the last few days or so - models flipping and flopping to me would suit the definition of showing a freezing cold NE'ly one day and then a horrid W'ly the next run.. I don't think we're really seeing that This is a pretty flat looking chart from the ECM and it just feels as though its plausible to me. But if that were to come off - the end result of all that HP a week or so down the line could be interesting?

That's really given us a strong signal! Bottom chart looks a tad more interesting, maybe? Possibly?

I'm more eagerly awaiting the GEFS ensembles than op runs at this current moment in time - got a feeling most GFS ops for the next 5 days or so are going to churn up some stinky looking charts - have a feeling that any 'change' towards the Christmas period will be picked up by the ensembles first. That above isn't particularly nice to look at though!

Yes still looks like, similar to the 0z run, that the op was one of the somewhat milder members beyond D10 but would there be any surprise if on this occasion its correct and is a trend setter for the rest of the suit? Either way it's worth noting the mean upper average for the last 4 days of the run is actually below the 30 year average, albeit only just (didn't really expect that). The large spread/scatter of options for the tail end of the suit is normal to see Still share the opinion with others that beyond D10 there's very very little to shout about from a deep cold perspective but nothing set in stone yet

GEFS ensembles overnight show the cooling trend this week but beyond D8 things do warm up quite notably for a time. But is there then another cooling trend trying to evolve towards the end of the ensembles? Not too many members flirt with the -5 uppers but I still think going into the Christmas period it's not a done deal yet

Seems like a bit of a while since I've seen a set of GEFS ensembles with that sort of agreement (or at least non-scatter) up until right at the end of the run I'm forgetting that Atlantic dominated periods are often pretty easy for it to deal with..! After a peak around D11/12 though they do show signs of cooling back off towards the average though - beyond that anything could happen

ECM Mean at +240 shows perhaps another ridge trying its upmost hardest to built to our W Not the same with GEFS Mean though

That's a proper old W/NW'ly flow there that manages to produce the goods .. very rare do you get these types of flows bringing in such chilly uppers and snow potential these days but that is what would happen if it came off Models trying to firm up on something a little more organised in the way of colder weather around D7-10 perhaps?

Wouldn't that be chase #3 perhaps? The recent one, next week and - this new one we're trying to find? Joking apart though, that is to me a continued sign that up until D10 there's very much a cooler spell of weather coming up with only 1 or 2 milder interludes - its just a shame that that has translated into nothing more than a weak shot of cold from the NW/N next week. ECM D10 looks like it has the plausibility to go on from there and produce some proper goods if it came off, but it's very similar to the D10 chart we saw yesterday. GEM not too dissimilar GFS not really seeing it A bunch of ensembles around that time frame still looking at cold uppers but in my opinion the main pieces of information I can gather from the ensembles this morning as far as the longer term goes (beyond D10) is the amount that show something much more milder.

I did indeed note the attempted height rises deep into FI but unfortunately; -Too far out (yet) and will probably disappear -Heights are weak anyway -Even if it came off that chart above it'd still take a lot of work for cold to arrive in All in FI - I did see it and note it but that's just me straw clutching after what's been a somewhat tough day of model watching from a cold point of view (beyond next week). GEFS ensembles beyond D10 show a slight warming trend with barely any brushing the -5 uppers so not really some good signs at the moment but hey it could all change towards the back end of the month (it's only day FIVE of the month after all!) and I've always felt wintry weather around the festive period (though often after 25th) especially towards the end of the year is actually a lot more common than some people think. On a side note - take no notice of the CFS daily run. It's a literal almost random-number-generator model that has extremely little or no scientific/human input and especially for our country is virtually useless, to put it at its bluntest

Absolutely - hopefully it'll calm down just before Christmas! It's a similar theme up until D10. Thank goodness there's still 90 days of Winter to go...

Looks like we really could be seeing some real Atlantic batterings by D9 according to GFS 18z This is after uppers struggle to go real cold

I can't see much there - unless I'm missing something!! Either way you're getting my ears to book up?

Well hello there Mrs. -10 upper, you weren't really supposed to be invited to the party?!

Yes this looks a tad more interesting - lots more could happen with this

Aside from a brief shot on Monday, ICON really struggles to bring in any uppers of note (-5) until back end of Thursday very end of the run

ICON 12z run is a tad more 'aggressive' with its lows than its run this morning 12z first for 00:00 Wednesday

One chart that escaped me a little this morning is ECM +240 On face value it's a cool/cold chart for us with winds NW'ly (unlike GFS for this timeframe) but also shows heights trying to push to our NW by the looks of things? Not that its going to come off, I don't usually deeply analyse D10 charts - just trying to add a bit of light to this thread today - it's one of those days I guess!

I do find it a little odd how some posters often mention how anything beyond say +192 is just for fun (which I totally agree on) but then the same people offer us their deep confident predictions for time frames weeks down the line.. ! My only usual mention of anything beyond 10 days is through the ensembles Speaking of which - I can still see slight support for these W/WNW/NWN'ly flows to be present after D10 going off the mean But further along the line there does now seem to be some relative support for a more W/SW'ly flow All seems plausible to me but hopefully those SW'lies will have done one by Christmas!

Thank goodness D10 charts never come off. Plenty to play for before then though

Still a lot to play for next week Thurs-Sat or so. I mean it's STILL 7 days away (seems like we've been chasing it forever) and when there's this sort of spread in the GEFS ensembles It indicates there is fine margins in uppers cold enough for snowfall and those that are not. Few posts highlighting that it's now a 'certainty' that snow will be limited to high ground in Scotland - I personally don't share this opinion and think there is still potential and opportunity for snowfall much further South (though not perhaps the proper South). It'd be rather unusual for precipitation to fall as rain for the majority of us with those uppers. The op then wants to shove much more milder air straight in as early as Friday but this is one of the mildest runs at that timeframe (with most members keen to keep the cold until after Friday). Nothing about the current output highlights to me that next week will be a 'non-event' for much of the country - there's plenty to get excited about especially the further North you go (but yes I understand that its not going to be anything close to a snowfest). Thus is the case with these types of setup

GFS vs UKMO +120 GFS first Very very similar and both 'respectable'

Better is the best word to describe this UKMO 12z