StretfordEnd1996

It may not be much but the GEM at least is acknowledging here that December 1st marks the first day of the metrological Winter..

It's looking chilly for a time in the near-immediate timeframe.. Is there evidence to suggest the jet is sinking southwards a tad in the more longer term, perhaps allowing better chance of some colder incursions from the NW/N One may look, with a degree of optimism, at the 6z extended GEFS ensembles which in its more extended range show a marked cool down in the upper air temperatures (in contrast to what is often a huge degree of scatter at this range). (mean)

Rain/sleet/wet snow at -8 uppers? I'm not sure if I fully agree with that particular threshold of -8 ... I think the vast majority of the time uppers of -8 should be cold enough to give something more in the way of snow rather than rain, I'd put my threshold more to -5 give or take... (but baring in mind a NW'ly incursion imo tends to deliver average uppers of around -5 rather than -8 anyway, in my opinion? unless I'm mistaken).. But either way I agree with yourself/others in that I reckon what the MO is trying to hint at is just typical wintry stuff on higher hills from NW'ly incursions (in an otherwise westerly driven pattern)- they aren't suggesting anything out of the ordinary in my opinion and it can be fairly normal/typical for this time of year Agree completely - we can always get excited and clutch at a few straws when we see eye watering heights drawn up to our N/NE to try and establish something significant, but I for one am looking at the more likely situation - hopefully we can gauge a few NW/N shots in the next 2-3 weeks or what have you - as I said I don't think this is too abnormal for this time of year and always a chance one of those incursions may have a bit of potency about them. Something like this, I guess

GFS perhaps a little less bullish out up to D10 but still some chilly looking charts for a time - We're not even in Winter yet so for me any little bit of cold weather no matter how short or small it is is more than welcome and good to see, and I shall not be getting disappointed or disgruntled at failed cold incursions at this stage. It'd be a freezing start for many a week tomorrow perhaps ... Brrrrr Flatter by D10 (which is a little interesting considering in the 6z GEFS suit there was a vast majority of runs that were showing much colder uppers around D10 close to or at the -5 isotherm), perhaps the 12z operational is out on its own a little - we shall see

I think there is cause for optimism - there's not really been much in the way of interest from a cold perspective showing up for quite a bit and a few changes this morning has certainly wet the appetite and rightly so - a few picks Nothing to suggest any long term cold or even cold of real potency but in a month that's prior to the start of Winter I'd happily bag a few of these

I'll make a comment on it since the rules don't state if a chart is dreadful it's best not to comment on it. Looking pretty mild, pretty standard and pretty plain for this time of year. I don't really expect much else. I'm also happy to accept the above charts mean absolutely nothing at all for Winter.

"Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild" A little bit odd - "average" overnight lows for me in late November would naturally be around what ... 2-4'C? Not so much feeling mild....

You're more than welcome to have a bit of fun if you want, GFS 12z... But it'd be nice if you have a good look at yourself in around a months time or so!! In all fairness I don't mind a bit of a mild push at this time of year - means I don't get that brrrr feeling when I walk outside.

The weather so far this Summer (well certainly this month) in my opinion can be best described as 'nothingness'. It's as if it doesn't really exist its that dull and boring

I'm not feeling those Summer vibes at the moment, in the more medium term anyway - 6z There's a few bits and pieces to look forward to before this though in the much more shorter term - Friday afternoon looking pretty warm - more so in the South and East.. for me in the NW temperatures may not be that much above average

Some lovely-looking uppers are showing their face in the 06z GFS run - it's a long way off but nonetheless nice to see as a possibility In the much nearer term it's somewhat clear to me we're heading into (or have headed into) a much more unsettled spell with cooler temperatures and LP often making an appearance in the next 7 days HP moves back in up towards D10 (as per first image) but that's a long way off It seems as though some are almost 'confused' or surprised that this less settled spell is arriving on our shores - almost as if to suggest it's unusual or very surprising at this time of year (perhaps more so too because of the Spring we've just had). To me this upcoming spell looks completely normal and one of a number of possibilities the great British weather can bring in the (early) Summer period. We've had an absolutely cracking spell of weather, and we've had some cracking hot spells in recent Summers - but sometimes these types of scenarios such as the one in the next 7 days or so in my opinion are still always an entirely plausible possibility (and perhaps a welcome one too). There's nothing to suggest in the shorter range models that this pattern is going to materialize for the long term - as these models only go out to 14 days or so anyway.

There's clearly been something of a change of heart for the general incline regarding most of next week, with the wording specifically saying 'there appears to be a more unsettled regime at first' for the 30th-8th period

Didn't April 2011 at least stand out as one of the top 3 or so mildest on record?

It will only be a 'shame' if it's true and it comes off Right now none of us can possibly have any idea what's going on with it All I do know is that we are indeed in an Easterly QBO right now - let's not forget that

As a fellow Mancunian I can relate! It's been a cloudy and overcast affair without question but I have to admit today has been lovely without question Heading into next week, there does definitely look to be further HP around initially, which will no doubt bring largely fine days and feeling warm. It's the latter half of next week which seems a little up in the air at the moment with the latest GFS really wanting to cool things down with it pulling some winds in from the north by D10 - with it would probably be something slightly more unsettled but not overly so. It's a long way off though - I wouldn't be too worried about that just yet

To elaborate a tad further, HP builds back in very much so by D4 But a few days after looking ahead to D7 onward it starts to fade and by D10 we're very much in what looks to be an unsettled and cooler pattern Will need to look at the ensembles as some of the uppers for around that time seem somewhat unthinkably low in relation to some of the output we've seen recently But I'm not going to say it won't lead to warm and settled June - if these charts were to come off I don't think they really give any suggestions to what June may bring Edit - I mentioned it'd be more unsettled with these types of charts, but not overly so - precipitation would probably be in the form of showers rather than longer spells of rain

My predictions June to start off quite warm and dry for many, especially the south (the south is mostly best in summer for proper heat and warmth). This will be one of only perhaps 2 or 3 notable hot and dry spells July and August may tend to be more average, specifically rainfall wise I think these days a bad summer is one that's wet, a good one is one that's dry. A colder than average summer seems very unlikely but never say never. It seems in this day and age all we need is a slight little nudge from HP to the south for very hot uppers to bake over the country and give us 25'C+

Absolutely I'm glad someone shares my view - I don't think we're anywhere close to 'drought' conditions yet, I think if we experience a continued lack of precipitation for the next few months, coupled with very warm or hot conditions then reservoirs and the like may begin to struggle but here right now we're fine I'm also in the belief that these very low rainfall totals aren't here to stay, and things may turn a bit more closer to average or even above as we head into the next season. But hey I'm likely to be wrong!

I don't think we're anywhere near such situation yet, we've just had a few months of below average rainfall - yes okay if it continues for another few months it can be worrying but I don't think we're crying out in desperation for rain

A really dull GFS run to look at until at least D10 but if it's any consolation at least we see some chilly uppers moving in on Christmas Day for the briefest of times Need a good set of ensembles as the previous set really did like the idea of milder weather to me

Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness) Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that

Thanks for clearing this up

Could you explain what you mean by continuity

Yes well not look out the window to see whether there's precipitation falling out the sky - I think a good portion of the country will see that - but more to look out to see whether its rain, sleet or snow..! Actually seen some people post charts recently that highlight the snow 'level' - these are interesting to see but not sure if they are accurate?

Yes plenty of snowfall filled charts for some this weekend but as ever these are just raw model charts from the GFS they are never going to come off like for like - hence why the best 'tool' to use this weekend in terms of working out whether it's going to snow or not is probably to just look out of the window.. Nontheless; Here's Wendesday at 15:00 but this really does look high/highest ground stuff Saturday looks a little more interesting for some; 06:00 and still lingering showers throughout the day for some in the N/W I suspect all these would just be wintry showers with accumulations only for high ground, though lower levels could still see some snow falling Looking ahead and the GFS is just sodden from D8 onwards to the end of the run. But still think a change could take place towards the back end of the month - just doesn't look too likely