StretfordEnd1996

For me cold temperatures in Winter is anything up to a max of 5'C in the daytime Average for my location is 7'C Anything over that I deem as mild CET wise it's been a cold cold start to the season

Absolutely - Still think that Thurs-Sat next week is very much plausible for a good decent Northerly The downgrades we've seen overnight never actually got rid of the possible cold from around Thurs-Sat. They lowered chances of cold prior to Thurs and probably lowered the potency slightly of days 7-10 but in my opinion still all to play for. I can see agreement in this mornings output that it will be a bit of a short lived affair but at D7-10 I don't see much at the moment that it isn't going to be exciting

GEFS ensembles a tad on the disappointing side for me - though looking at it a different way perhaps it just adds to the uncertainty regarding next week now (especially days 7-10) There's nothing overly wintry of note until D8 (aside from perhaps a snow-rain event around Tuesday?) and then after D8 is when the fun starts - we have a chunk of members including the op really going quite cold within the uppers, but then there are some that aren't as interested. Around D8-10 this is about a 50/50 split almost. Thereafter I seem to get the feeling that there's a steady recovery which suggests any cold spell may be a tad short lived - and beyond D10 there's actually a notable number that really want to go pretty mild But still, D7-10 is where its all to play for - its completely plausible that we could see snow widely across the country but its also plausible that we could see very little

In all fairness I don't think in realistic terms there was ever going to be a 'harsh cold spell' really - only the GFS showed this through various runs over the last 2 days most of which were outliers (or at least on the extreme cold end of the ensembles). I think anyone that was given the impression a 'harsh cold spell' lasting 5 days or more next week was always barking down the wrong tree A good Northerly lasting a few days was always the most credible option for me and to an extent that is what's being shown in the models this morning - though it's just a standard affair really (nothing spectacular, nothing too shabby) Still a lot to play for without question - often when the models 'backtrack' on a cold spell it results in virtually nothing being shown for us at all but that's definitely not the case this morning. Still looking at a period that's 7-10 days away and I think that period could well still bring wintry weather to a good portion of the country. Upgrades could still happen before then. I'd bank this setup at anytime for the first half of December. ECM also still seeing it Now this Northerly is modelled to happen around Thurs/Fri next week - this has always been the case, so it's still over 7 days away - some people have mentioned that they seem to think its constantly 'hanging' at D10 but in reality it isn't I think we'll know for fact in 48 hours as to whether it's going to happen or not (though not how potent it may be) My basic feelings though this morning is as I mentioned - a lot of downgrades overnight but still a huge amount to play for (mostly after D7)

If I'm being honest that wasn't the GEFS ensembles I was expecting to see - it's thrown perhaps another twist (out to D14) It's almost as if around D8-11 there's a big 'either or' split with a chunk of members either going pretty mildish (well back towards the 30yr average) and then a good chunk going for something much much colder - there's not really an inbetween around that timeframe Either way I think there are some detailed timings unraveling themselves now from what I've seen tonight in terms of the uppers - initial chance around D6 for cold uppers to try to filter into much of the country but thereafter they warm up a tad - and warm up enough to probably mean rain rather than snow for the vast majority of us. Thereafter beyond around the back end of D8 onwards to around D11 that's when it looks the best chance of us getting something much cooler - but this isn't guaranteed in any way shape or form yet. There are perhaps around 11-15 members that have uppers cold enough for decent cold/snow around this period. The others can't be ignored though. Even further ahead it does look as though we see a general scatter beyond D11 but that's expected - op remains a big outlier around this time but is it a trend setter? Probably not but either way the whole GEFS from start to finish to me provides absolutely no support at all for something in the way of a euroslug or raging SW'lies - and when that's the case it always means everything is all so interesting! As for 0z .. wouldn't be surprised if they further back away - wouldn't surprise me if they don't. We're balancing.. on the edge

Hmm.. All goes away too quickly here

GFS very much a downgrade on the 12z Struggles to draw in any decent uppers around D6-8 Less amplified than the 12z by D9 (18z first) Still some decent charts at times just a bit less potent really in my opinion. We do indeed get some decent uppers before D10 still Perhaps I'm sounding a tad too pessimistic

Less amplified by D8 6z first

GFS 18z for +144 compared to 6z.. ridge slightly east

Yes ICON being 18z of course only goes to +120 but that's the main focal point of when everything starts to get going and it's pretty decent

Judging by the model thread I don't think there's anyone that's worried at the moment ..! Put it this way - if it was the other way around and UKMO was showing a northerly at +144 but the GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON and ensembles were showing nothing of the sort - I'd be putting £1000 on the latter solution!

That's just a question of who's your money on isn't it - you've got UKMO vs everyone else UKMO in my opinion hasn't had the best reliability at +144 of late

This looks a nasty low now to our west at +162 but where's it going to end up finishing I wonder? Is it going to help in push the jet stream further South.. let's see

The big difference is the low to our west - it looks to be slightly different compared to the 06z

12z on the GFS looks a tad less amplified than the 6z but not overly so by +120 or so - GFS 12z first

I'm not overly worried yet about the UKMO - it going out to +144 hours (D6) - whilst it isn't as cold on this day as the GFS or ICON it still wouldn't by any means mean that by D7-8 the jet stream won't have sunk South as per the other solutions. It just doesn't show that initial promise. Still - hoping the GFS doesn't head down that route!

ICON has been highly regarded by some in the last few weeks - while I'm still a bit sceptical about it for what it's worth it does look similar to the GFS solution by D8 with the uppers of -5 or colder starting to roll in eventually - notable is how the jet stream is very far South

Thanks for this and yes - in response to a post you sent out this morning, we really need these charts to still be here by I think Friday - That is around 5 days prior. When it's this far out it still has chance for change and disappear to something non existent but once it gets to sort of 5 days out its close enough for any event to appear in much more shorter range forecasts anyway e.g. the Met Office and that's when you start getting media interest.. Hence why we really need a proper good upgrade from the UKMO at +144 for the 12zs otherwise I'll still be a tad unconvinced.

A tad surprised that a precipitation chart for over 9 days away is being talked about so much - but I guess most posters are seeing the funny side to it in that it is extremely likely to come off (though don't discount some decent snow down there the way its going, just not on that level) More of importance to me is the other signals Uppers look respectable for majority of next week as early as D6 Actually forgot that at this time of year the uppers can be perhaps a tad warmer to see snow so that's to our benefit Means any precipitation falling at most times next week really could well be wintry in nature to some degree. And with the amount of lows around and how unstable the pattern looks - it is promising as of today. Will the charts manage to last? Here's hoping

Even prior to the main timeframe we're looking at - it still gets pretty cold as early as Monday as a brief NWly flow rolls through From around D6-7 drawing in cold uppers thereafter for a chunk of the country All this happens prior to D7

Absolutely - I'm not worried about them it'd just have been nice for me to go to bed knowing the charts were widely showing -5 and lower! Marginal is the word I think we'd be looking for - but sometimes that makes it more exciting On face value for me there's nothing wrong with this chart below Indeed 18z shows some good charts and good setups prior to D10 - but hopefully in the next day or two we can really bring some of these lovely charts into the nearer timeframe?

Yep agree very much 12z and the 18z are in all similar to each other especially when its D6-10 we're concerned about Whilst the uppers are a little less potent (importantly so, as on the whole they do take quite a good while to reach nationwide -5 uppers) they do get there eventually and as you said the overall pattern is somewhat similar 12z first D7 By D10 In a way its just perhaps the proper head of the cold spell has been pushed back around 12-24 hours But the rather mediocre cold uppers annoyed me a tad - we don't really get them by D10 (or beyond?)

Just doesn't look as convincing to me around +210 but hey what am I to know

Small differences that could have bigger implications later down the run 12z-18z

Absolutely - My main point in my reply being it's the mean you're looking at. The mean does what it says on the tin - it isn't a 'run' and therefore its virtually impossible for it to come off in that identical way