captaincroc
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Posts posted by captaincroc
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Snow SO rarely sticks on a main road in Crewe town areas. Took my new dog for a walk in it earlier, was licking the floor! haha
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Been with my folks all evening, knew it would be good fun to jump on the NW forum to catch up with what I've missed...
Firstly....WTF as happened in Cumbria? Where did that come from.
Second WTF...haha. WTF is happening in Crewe. Snow settling in the middle of town and it's currently pelting it down!!!
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I'm sure some experts will confirm or not, but I'm sure the longer subzero uppers are above us -with minimal wind - the more they sink lower in the atmosphere, hence lower temperatures at the surface and lower Dew Points. So if we have a slow low with minimal wind and minimal solar heating then the temps should get lower and lower and increase snow potential?
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If I was on Mastermind and the question was, "What occurrence normally scuppers an upcoming cold spell?", I would say the kinda 'shortwavy' charts this morning. I remember an easterly as few years ago looked long lasting and then one of the shortwaves that appeared small - and was forecast to drift east - blew up and brought southerlies and milder air a lot faster than predicted.
It's not a doom and gloom post as actually buzzing for some season weather at least, but my bum is slightly squeaky at these pesky shortwaves appearing and if there is a smidge more energy given to them or they drift further north then we just be on the wrong side of the fun. We all know that to get the good dumping of the white stuff, things normally have to high risk...this looks like it could go down that route.
Victor Meldrew aside, the model watching is very exciting and looking forward to some chilly weather - at least - for sure.-
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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:
An extraordinary difference of opinion between the GFS and UKMO, ECM at just T48 hrs .
The GFS separates the low to the west which spawns a shortwave running north towards Greenland .
This then leaves the main low much further south at T60 hrs .
This then tracks slowly ese allowing it to support high pressure to its n ne.
The Euros don’t have separation and take this further ne before it slowly edges se much further east .
Cheers Nick. I always appreciate you always share where the 'differences' start and when. It really helps me learn, so thank you.
For me, there is an 'air' of the models sniffing something (hate that phrase but kinda perfect for this) but not sure 'how' the cold air will move. Just look at the ECM run, any other year or model run the atlantic will just pile in...it just all gets flabby and then somehow weather starts to move in from the east. Fascinating to watch unfold.-
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
20-21 Dec 2009, ideal scenario for snow off the Irish Sea for here. We had very intense thundersnow, convection off SW flow wrapped around a cold trough of low pressure to the NW, quite unusual synoptics.
Back to today, just a very typical November kind of day.
I remember radar watching that night, I think Aaron was accompanying me too. Westerlys don't work here as too far south so the Welsh mountains take the brunt. It's Cheshire Gap or nothing really for South Cheshire haha.
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27 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Snow showers organised off the Irish Sea is the best hope for persistent snow for areas protected by the snow shield where easterly fronts rarely deliver. West of the M6 the easterly fronts can deliver but the Irish sea snow showers are often more marginal. Convective easterlys favour those east of the M6 and so are different to easterly fronts in that reinvigoration west of the M6 cannot occur on an easterly front. Convective showers are also better at crossing the Pennines. This is why during a frontal snow event with easterly winds the west of the lowland part of the region can do better such as March 2013 whereas during a convective easterly it is the eastern lowland areas that see snow such as February 2018.
For Crewe, the only proper chance for us to get a fall that is memorable is from a NW Streamer but in light winds so less mixing of the air and late at night. Then the ground is frosty and the lack of wind keeps the temps down below freezing. Everything else is normally a bust for us.
Ideal scenario... Greenland blocking in Nov/Dec (short days) a few days of really cold temps and then a slight kink in the isobars to a NW, creating potent showers coming down the Cheshire gap slowly, falling on already frozen ground with minimal daytime melting due to low sun.
So Santa...if you're listening...! haha
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10 hours ago, RainAllNight said:
Winter-only posters may not yet be aware that the ECM ensembles got a big upgrade in June: the 15-day ensemble now has all 51 members running at the same high resolution as the deterministic run, and the 46-day ensemble now runs at 0z every day and has been doubled to 101 members (with a lower resolution than the shorter-range ensemble).
Thanks for this. Good to know, cheers for thinking of us part-timers!
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2 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Ah bless him well those showers were a good introduction
Heavy rain still going here in Sandbach lots of surface water flooding 
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Yeah, just seen it's started again. Looks like it stopped momentarily when we got back then haha. It was bouncing down.
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29 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Some torrential showers over S Cheshire currently sky is pitch black
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Took my new rescue dog for his first long walk...before the showers hit... can confirm they were torrential and stopped as we got back. As you probably guessed we were drenched! haha. I bloody love being out in the rain though so he better get used to it.
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Im no expert, but following the charts for over 20 years this year is definitely no normal lead up to winter. Southerly placed Jet Stream/Lows, even when the contrast of the autumnal temps which normally fire it up. I don't know all the other players involved in what we get in weather but just from general chart watching and following patterns of summer, this winter has potential to be different. Yes we could end up in a warmer side of the jet etc but also I'd rather than risk than see deep blues and purples to our north west on the charts.
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27 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Another pleasant Sunday with sunny spells and not too chilly - luckily the NW looks to be avoiding currently the worst of Storm Ciaran’s winds into Thursday but a spell of heavy rain for all looks likely with the strongest winds over the far SE & South Coast, Isle of Wight, Channel Islands & Northern France - early warnings are now out. Hopefully it doesn’t move any further north as that puts London and the SE Home Counties commuter belt in the firing line and the impacts that will bring for an area not used to severe wind storms.
Will be interesting if we continue to see this southerly storm track into the Winter months - think the lockdown Winter of 2020/21 saw this at times with cold air digging south giving the inland NW marginal but occasionally heavy snowfalls from late Dec post Xmas to early Feb - even Crewe saw some measurable snow!
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I think that was the year where my friends in Edinburgh has snow on the ground for nearly a month as - unlike us - they stayed on the cold side of the jet. Let's this southern tracking jet is a keeper.
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13 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:Hey Ben, good to see you back on here!
Hopefully we get a decently wintry winter so you’re a mainstay.Cheers Aaron.
I know I am a fair-Net Weather-er, well to be fair, if there is any interesting weather I pop on haha.
I do honestly feel the 'way' the weather is this year is far from normal, so let's hope we roll a 6 this winter.-
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Hello you beautiful lot. Fairweather member back for 'winter'. Hope you have all had a good spring/summer.
Bobbing in as the weather this year/summer has been weird chart wise. Lot of low pressure to our south etc and that's even playing out now. I feel that this 'unusual' pattern we seem to be in can only help our prospects this winter. The models won't let get of the signal for northern blocking the past few weeks, yes it gets pushed back, delayed but it always there. Normally it's deep purples to our north and that isn't the case.
Not a prediction but I reckon this winter could be quite exciting.
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@CreweCold Hello matey. I can't see much about it on the Crewe Community page (of the floods) is that the one you have seen the videos on?
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Hello all.
GUTTED to miss the storm in Crewe yesterday, was in Manchester all day so didn't get back till midnight. Mum sent me a video of their street being flooded.
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4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
I'm expecting an update about 11:15 with the 6Z. With the last update you need another 10– 20 miles nudge south to stop you getting ice pellets and rain mix in the late afternoon, if there's any precip by then.
Cheers for that. That was my assumption too.
I think we just need a shift south to keep us in the cold and keep the precipitation over us too. Weirdly the snow is dryer now than it was first thing this morning. Evaporative cooling must be lowering the temps.-
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Just now, Chris.R said:
Flakes will be much bigger later on as T850s get close to 0
Hi Chris.
Any update on the 0c line? As Crewe - being in the south of the region - needs it to move south! haha. I'm guessing the next update will be after the 6z's-
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Snow starting to look a tad dryer, obviously still a wet mess but if intensity picks up could give a slushy covering.
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Snowing quite heavy here but just not cold enough to stick, elevation is going to be the saving grace for people today.
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Geez, we are in touching distance to something special. Fingers crossed a few tweaks are had to make it so.
...just started snowing lightly in Crewe!
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I've popped to the MOD thread and the big talk is that potential low moving in latter of next week...
I don't know about you but for me I only really 'love' love the snow in Nov/Dec/Early Jan. As you know that with even just lower temps you are guaranteed (nearly) that the snow will last in the shade - which is a lot due to the low sun heights - as a quick 'fall and melt' doesn't really do it for me. By March I am normally kinda done with it as whatever falls normally melts fast due to the sun's strength, so what excites me about this spell is the good chance of the low moving in. As I know we might be in the snow shadow to some extent but the excitement of a proper front of snow would be pretty cool and something to see...as it's been a while.
Some days show some Cheshire Gap potential too. Definitely exciting synoptics.
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Hi all.
I know I am a fairweather poster (well coldweather...
) but just catching up with the charts and for me it's the depth of cold coming from the north. As we had the potent heat last summer, would be pretty cool to see such cold uppers come from the north. I remember seeing one chart a week or so back forecast -18c uppers?!? WTF?!? haha.
Anyways, will take up my perch on the Netweather part-time bench awaiting what shenanigans are to come from the sky.
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5 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
Weird 12 hours in Crewe & Nantwich. We went to a very icy Nantwich last night at 7.30pm but when we came out of the event at 10pm, it was just wet underfoot and the car thermometer showed +2C. This morning, there was hard impacted ice on some of the side roads/pavements and absolutely nothing on other parts. The Met Office forecast an overnight low of 2C for the south of the region which was weird in itself, but they appear to have been near enough right. I wonder why, given the sub-zero temperatures forecast for virtually everywhere else and particularly as we had lying snow on the ground? A lovely morning now but what's going to happen to the temperatures during the day I wonder?
Exactly this! So weird, obviously there must have been a random mild sector etc but either way, why just here? I know it could be wind direction but it was hardly gale force (I couldn't actually feel any) and the direction has been NW-erly a lot and not shot up so much? Any experts know? haha
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Northwest Weather Discussion
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
That's why I shared as it's SO rare to see.