captaincroc
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Posts posted by captaincroc
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Phone finally switched back on after 3 hours on the radiator . This was from the peak of that first front that went through....
Still below freezing here with lightish snow but expecting a thaw by morning and then that to continue ,due to the constant cloud and temps above freezing the next few days with this easterly.
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Just now, Joe Bloggs said:
Most of the town is above 300m ASL, what a dream! The area near Poole’s Cavern is really nice.
I go to Goyt Valley in my campervan too, that is stunning....but would happily take Buxton!
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1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:
I’d love to live in Buxton at some point in my life.
Snow from all directions, a nice town, beautiful countryside with a rail line into Manchester.
One day
I reckon we should all do a lottery syndicate and when we win just buy a street up there.
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
Any houses for rent on your street?
Haha. They go really quick, as genuinely lovely street. Stunning views over Cheshire and SO much cheaper than Nantwich/Sandbach. I got this 3 bed terrace house with big long garden (and views) for £123,000 4 years ago. Barely would have got me 2 bed apartment in Nantwich/Sandbach haha....plus when it snows then it SNOWS.
That last belt was off the scale for 40 mins. Reckon might get a tiny bit more but more concerned about temps being projected as above freezing.
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1 minute ago, jam2010 said:
is it a reasonable reason to move house based on snow?
Was a genuine factor for me. Wanted to be near Crewe but on a hill. I have no kids so no schools etc to think about so this place is perfect.
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So great to hear the reports, pics etc.
The walk turned into a sledge and the last 30 mins the snow squall hit...Heavy snow for about 40 mins... caused carnage on the bank (as per every snowfall)...look stunning as stuck to all surfaces (like you said Kasim! haha). Phone got wet taking pics and vids so currently won't switch on or charge so on radiator drying out. Will share the pics later. Good 4 - 5cm of cover. As much as I want the showers to continue it looks the like temps will slowly rise overnight to above freezing. Would prefer clear skies and frost than light snow and cloud cover with a thaw.
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Off for a big walk...by the time I come back I want to hear the whole region has been submerged in a covering of the good stuff.
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Is it misty/foggy anywhere else?
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P.s, after yesterdays Thawfest... a sprinkling from the shower earlier and now it must be below freezing still as it has only melted on certain parts of certain roofs.
What time is normally peak temp this time of year?
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2 hours ago, Joe Snow said:
Lightly snowing as the feature over Wales sinks southwards. Interesting to see BBC Weather app going for heavy snow showers much of this evening for my location. We’ll see
Really exciting update that as when I checked literally an hour before you posted there was literally next to nothing forecast from the BBC app.
Forgot I had screen shot it...
Before (Crewe)
Now
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9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:
Radar looks good for South Cheshire ! Enjoy
Cheers Joe, looks like it's dying out over us so not sure much accumulation will occur but this evening sure looks fun...let's hope it expands a bit for more of the region to join in.
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16 minutes ago, Dexter said:
It's just started to snow lightly here. Showers feeding down from the NW.
Yeah, just woke up and checked the radar and looks like the edge will S. Cheshire.
This afternoon looks interesting. Especially if the MetO et al are actually mentioning it and being quite bullish about it (mentioning a cover etc).
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Met O App
BBC
One expecting a weaker affair with the odd light shower and the other quite high odds (80%) of heavy snow.
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1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:
I have to say the MetO app has been absolutely woeful this past week. Really, really poor.
Not good that it completely missed all the shower potential for yesterday morning, it’s not like they were light and/or isolated.
Normally I rate it quite highly too.
Not getting my hopes up for tomorrow, will be a nice surprise if it happens. Looks very light on the ICON.
Which one got it right yesterday, it was the BBC one wasn't it? It's bonkers that such short time periods can produce such different forecasts and outcomes.
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19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
If you get the precip, I'd suggest at 170m with -7 uppers & an offshore wind it will definitely settle. Only a very slim chance you'll catch the -6 uppers associated with the moderated trough core, this will still give a good risk of snow settling.
Well I just reread the timings and by 3pm the temp is normally dropping so fingers crossed.
What models should we be looking at do you reckon for this feature? Which do you think are modelling it correctly?
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1 hour ago, Dkeane3 said:
I see ICON and ECM have it further north than Manchester too
Where can I find those ECM precipitation charts please? Can anyone help me? haha
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1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:
There is a trough coming into cold uppers tomorrow, thanks for @captaincroc for pointing this out. It's most likely to track just to our south into S.Yorks / Staffordshire however around a 40% risk of it being slightly north into Manchester. 1/2cm from Sheffield, Buxton, South Cheshire / Staffordshire a risk*.
Omg!! I feel famous!! Can I get my Blue Peter badge for Meteorology
I know I am in this thread but I am just over in the Staffordshire border now so it is looking good for here going by your forecast. Only thing that is a shame is the timing as it's in the peak of the day so not expecting any to stick...but will be nice to see some more snow fall.
As with others definitely less cold today, the thaw was a lot more rigorous than previous days.
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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:
Don't know but Arpege looks eye opening for West Midlands
Icon
Oooh, didn't spot this. The Arpege has a lot more activity full stop tomorrow than other models
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5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Ecm 12z wants to bring a wintry mass across parts
The Euro4 has something similar but not as defined. Fingers crossed.
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Well the drizzle has turned into snizzle which is a bonus I suppose.
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3 minutes ago, Pendlesnow said:
Well in the east of the county we just had a light rain shower push through
Same here, foggy with light rain and a very slow thaw?! Shocked if I'm honest as thought especially being over night it would be snow and hover around freezing. Weird.
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2 minutes ago, iand61 said:
Selfishly I need it 50 miles further north but good to see interest at such short notice.
Yeah, here's hoping it expands, it's only just been modelled. Maybe Kasim knows more as to why it has popped up.
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Looking at the precipitation Hi-Res Models...spotted this little feature only 40 hours away...
Yes it's projected to only touch parts of the region but could always expand or squeak further north. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
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22 minutes ago, Singularity said:Quite something just how much ECM has adjusted the northeast flow colder for Mon-Wed. Seems the BBC probably are lagging behind on developments.
As for what goes on later in that run... phenomenal. Also highlights just how much potential GFS managed to waste!
Yeah, I'm buzzing the massive change in the ECM et al uppers, they might even squeak a bit lower? haha.
I agree about the BBC, I'm repeating many voices here but I genuinely think the BBC etc are just lagging in their data...awaiting consistency. As we see the latest charts as they role out, they have to plan, make and present the weather so I'm guessed won't have time to rush a new forecast every time a model comes out. I reckon they have a 'theme', like the news does and makes shifts to that generally, rather than a quick panic change of their forecasts because of a model change. I do honestly think that now the colder easterly air has more consistency across the models the wording in their presented forecasts will change.
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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Is it clear skies or cloudy?