Purga

Aahh... with snow falling outside my window here in W Sussex, I've just noticed the GFS 12z trendsetter pert. Onwards & upwards - never say die Coldies!

We're all interested in the evolution beyond that from t216-t240 were it meets the mean! Let battle Royal commence.

GFSP 0z FI Ext EPS / GLOSEA not giving up either btw

ECM @240hrs Can we take any more of this?

A pretty blocked looking ECM mean, especially from the NH perspective. Plenty of interest still, I would wager

Yes!

Antone fancy a bit of snow on Friday? Thank you GFS-P, don't mind if I do!

Hey... that's being 'coldist' Knocker!

After wandering around phases 4 and 5 the MJO has shown signs of staying slightly amplified and moving across phases 6 and 7 as we get towards the end of the month and into February. (More favourable for -NAO) The latest ECM modelling demonstrates this. The GFS only moves it across Phase 6 and then it loses amplification. Something to bear in mind with the decent ECM trop eNS tonight.

You spoke too soon - ECM is not a good run.....

That is correct, it is a good update because what has been added is:- TODAY "There is still a chance that even colder conditions may develop later in the period with winds swinging round to the east or northeast, bringing an increased possibility of snow." YESTERDAY "Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north." The signal for E / NE winds is specifically mentioned today. - I call that an upgrade!

06z Para is very nice!

MAX

Tidied for you Chio...

Oh - why not!

SNAP!

06z GEFS shows further firming up on the longer term cold signal The ECM 00z ensemble suite shows the identical message to the GEFS, i.e. long-term signal for cold weather beyond a very brief blip next Saturday. Most of the variants bring in the warm sector at some point that day but a reasonable cluster delays it until the evening. Note that there's a virtual absence of mild outcomes and very few offering even normal temperatures. Ensemble suites can also flip but as it is at the moment the outlook remains a cold to very cold one.

Plenty to interest us still. GEFS trend is down and apart from the minor glitch at the end of the week is solidly cold and trending more so. Understandably, there is some despondency over the 'failed' easterly saga but it's more like a 'watered down' version of what has been shown all along in a very complex and unusual scenario. I submit that any cold lover should be pretty pleased with the trends! 18z (yesterday) 00z (today) The generally cold outlook remains with a less cold interlude possible for a day or two towards the end of the coming week. The next few days stay chilly throughout with a snow risk in places. Not deep prolonged cold, nor deep nationwide low level snow, just colder than average. What is totally absent in the model output is any sign of mildness. If we are to look beyond day 6/7 the cold trend is very clear and this time next week things once again look cold and wintry for the foreseeable. .

The issue is the ?? storm creating amplification in the jet. With the models in the US still adjusting the path of the storm early. Also the downwelling of the SSW hasn't actually reached the troposphere yet (forecast still for early next week) - so big volatility with the NWP outputs. NOTE: Initialisation errors are high at the moment Beyond around five days the UKMET don't rely on the operational output and they don't react (overreact) to every computer run. The ensemble outputs have been consistent in showing predominantly colder weather: the forecasts reflect the strong likelihood of cold weather with the risk of some very cold weather, in line with the ensembles that we can see. Under 'normal' circumstances this ENS suite would have this place in meltdown! Well worn, I know it's hard when you're young and enthusiastic ---- but be patient.....

Well, if it's of any interest - GMET are still favouring the UKMO route with cold / v cold E / NE bias mid to end of next week. Ref: DECIDER

Too much analysis leads to paralysis! It's a single Op run in a complex and highly unusual evolution. No NWP is ever going to be tightly consistent within the ensemble envelope and inter run variability is to be expected. Chill...

Seriously on target!

Son in Law - mentioned it to me and he knows!