Paul

January 19, 2015

Excuse this post if im an idiot lol

But.. I have recently starting following the models and starting to get my head round everything and get the hang of reading them. But one thing, could someone tell me what times they all update at?

Also is it looking good for NI? as earlier it was forecast to be rain in the east but now Northern Ireland weather have warnings out now for accumulations for most areas.

Does this precipitation support it? Am I right, please give me a gold star if I am or if il an idiot please don't tell me off

Welcome to the model thread Jello - you can find the timings here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

Note the GFS runs a little slower since it's recent upgrade though

January 18, 2015

Should hopefully be fixed now?

January 17, 2015

Our hi-res snow accumulation not quite as keen as the wsi one to bring some lying snow to the se, but there's some there at least. Still a knife edge setup regardless though.

Rain/snow mix still shown on the precip type.

Don't forget you can follow on the radar here on nw - click the weather type option to display rain/sleet/snow detection + switch on the social radar to combine with the twitter snow map type system - it uses #uksnow reports from twitter to show where people are reporting snow.

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

January 17, 2015

This is fixed now

January 17, 2015

Hi, apologies for the issue - we are aware of it and have it down to fix asap - possibly early next week but hopefully sooner

January 17, 2015

Yes, although we'll probably look to reduce those a tad to make it a bit clearer - tis on the list for next week!

(Talking of 850's).....Paul, if you don't mind me asking, Why doesn't the UKMO give out the 850s anymore ?

To be honest I can't remember them ever being available - but either way, there isn't a great deal of freely available met office model data out there I'm afraid.

January 17, 2015

In terms of current model output, those saying it definitely will or definitely won't snow tomorrow are both wrong - it's very much borderline!

Current hi-res model going for a rain snow mix - so it's looking likely to boil down to local variations, perhaps a little bit of height, and so on when it comes to what falls out of the sky..

January 17, 2015

These should be working now

January 17, 2015

This was resolved, will check to see what's happening now.

Edit in fact, it all looks fine to me with the 850's all showing - what problem are you seeing?

January 17, 2015

Ok thanks, I'll get Karl our tech genius to look at it Monday

January 17, 2015

I'm not totally clear what you're meaning, but yes you can post images into your posts - you can either upload them (click more reply options in the post box to get the uploader), or you can click the image icon in the post editor and paste in the address of the image. The image needs to be a png, gif or jpg, and can't be dynamic.

There's some more info under 'posting' in the help pages too

https://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=help

January 17, 2015

Surrey, have you a link for the euro 4?

Morning GP - you can view it over on weatheronline

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&INFO=1

January 16, 2015

Because the server we're pulling the data from is very slow this evening, wz prob get it from somewhere else & or don't use the hi-res data.

January 16, 2015

I think I moved/removed my first post of the day at about 7am this morning, it's now nearly 11pm and we're still going - please can you let me and the others in the team go to bed and just pre-moderate your own posts from here on in - that means for the small minority who still don't seem to want to do it, please post in the banter thread if you want to have a good old moan or whatever else, and keep his thread to discussion of the model output.

Thank you!!

January 16, 2015

You probably know what I'm going to say...

Model discussion please - posts above all need to be posted into the banter thread.

Edit - have moved them if you're wondering where they went.

January 16, 2015

There's a thread for discussing the layout of the model threads running, so please if you have suggestions or thoughts on it please head over to there rather than posting in here with them.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82240-would-you-like-a-hunt-for-cold-model-thread/

January 16, 2015

So, drawing a line under the weirdly crazy spell in here. I'd definitely recommend keeping an eye on the forecasts over the coming days as they're sure to change - particularly the whole rain/snow possibility as it's all very borderline.

For what it's worth right now, the you're looking for blue colours on here for the risk of snow - and the GFS delivers them over the region on Sunday - albeit with less rain/snow than some models are predicting.

It's going to change run to run though and will probably be a nowcasting type event!

Metoffice alert wording about sums it up - may be rain, may be sleet/snow..

A front will move slowly across the area on Sunday, clearing during the early hours of Monday. Rain will be heavy at times, and as cold air cuts beneath the rain-bearing cloud, it may turn to sleet or snow.

January 16, 2015

Wow, bizarre hour or so in here, perhaps time for a few to take a break off of the pc and come back later slightly less pent up?!

January 16, 2015

I've moved some posts into the moans/banter thread - posts literally just saying a run is 'poor' with no real discussion around that aren't model discussion, so are much better suited to the banter thread

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

January 16, 2015

Hi Stevie, yes you'll need to arrange your own hotel that night - we often recommend this one, and can pick you up from there on the day (and will have at least a couple of team members there that night too)

http://book.bestwestern.com/bestwestern/US/TX/Irving-hotels/BEST-WESTERN-Irving-Inn---Suites-at-DFW-Airport/Hotel-Overview.do?propertyCode=44524

January 16, 2015

Update re snow prospects in south/Midlands next 24-48 hrs...

Firstly, the situation tonight-tomorrow AM sees WBFL approx 400m with the showery occlusion moving in from the SW. Radiative cooling will enable snow to penetrate to fairly low levels by Sat AM, albeit patchy 2-4cm accumulations generally above 200m across W Country uplands/moors, probably then extending eastward to give light settling in other areas across to E Anglia.

The developments for Sunday are tricky re the SE. As it stands, threat of disruptive snow here is only 25%. This is because 00z EC, plus 06z UKMO-GM & E4 all backed-off on potency of cold undercut; moreover they allow most PPN to clear south before sufficient evaporative cooling could also happen... about 30% MOGREPS support a disruptive snow potential, thus current SE warning is predominantly for rain BUT with caveat of ongoing uncertainty re scope of snow potential.

Finally, I subscribe to Tamara's earlier post. With all forecast emphasis now switching towards colder weather and wintry hazards for at least a few days, it was bemusing to witness such a degree of online wrist-slashing. Equally, I echo her remarks re risk of over-analysing output into medium range in current situation. We have enough issues and operational forecast headaches at T+12 to scope-out, let alone T+120.

As requested - copying this over..

January 16, 2015

A fresh new model discussion thread - it's really busy at the moment so please do keep the discussion to the model output and head over to the banter thread for moans, ramps and loosely model related bits and pieces:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/

With a cold spell upon us, the regional threads are great places to drop into for local weather chat:

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

And, we also have a general cold spell thread open too:

January 16, 2015

Going to lock this imminently, with a fresh one open in time for the start of the 12z's...

Now open:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/

January 16, 2015

The Hi-res WRF has it clipping the SE as rain: nmmuk-1-43-0.png

It's borderline and sure to change - but for what it's worth - our hi-res model has a rain/snow mix..

January 16, 2015

Just removed a set of posts discussing the met office warning's - please head over to the general discussion or regional threads for these as it's not model discussion.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82292-upcoming-cold-spell-discussion/

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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