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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

A fresh new model discussion thread - it's really busy at the moment so please do keep the discussion to the model output and head over to the banter thread for moans, ramps and loosely model related bits and pieces:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/

 

With a cold spell upon us, the regional threads are great places to drop into for local weather chat:

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

And, we also have a general cold spell thread open too:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82292-upcoming-cold-spell-discussion/
 
For those who maybe don't know where to find the various model outputs, many of them are available right here on Netweather:
 
NetWx-SR
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess=
 
NetWx-MR
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-mr;sess=
 
GFS
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
 
Ensembles
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=
 
ECMWF
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=
 
ECMWF EPS
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=
 
Met Office Global
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=
 
Met Office Fax
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=
 
GEM
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gem;sess=
 
Model Comparison
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
Posted

IF post in the previous thread shows just how difficult it is to make a forecast specially in marginal situations using NWP.The SE rain forecast for Sunday can potentially be a disruptive snow event ,we are relying on computer model to factor in different scenarios that can flip very quickly. We've already seen them back off a bit on colder temps who's to say these don't flip back.You can only have admiration for the meto in these type of events . The SE being s highly populated area . From imby the fact that MOGEPS was higher prob at 30% against the rest of today morning suites gives us hope yet.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

Another run, another shift to the east as early as 24 hours out.

 

Edit: Though hopefully we're seeing a split in the Greenland and Atlantic high, which may give a route for the Atlantic low to slde down rather than just push the high pressure East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.gif

Edited by Snowy L
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
Another run, another shift to the east as early as 24 hours out.[/quote

NURSE !

On topic and the gme reminds me of the failed easterly from a few years back which went at day 4.

Fortunately, it's the GME

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Yup eastward shift already but that could just be the 12z bias!!! Lets see how the rest of the run goes!!

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GME has us in a westerly flow now by 132. Not a particularly auspicious start to the 12z output.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Out to 6h and no change :)

I don't expect there is any change in 6hrs but there most certainly will be changes to come.

From how quickly this cold spell has taken hold to how quickly it's going to disappear just don't seem right that's because there is so much to take into account that the models are most like struggling with short term effects !

so then how can mid and long term be counted as correct.....

By all means speculate about what where and when but winter spring and autumn do tend to show more model headaches than summer.

And at 6hrs I didn't really expect massive changes but tomorrow at 6hrs things could be very different especially when there's troughs and occluded fronts floating around.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

GME says a complete no to prolonged cold and has us back in a mild Westerly flow very quickly.

 

12z GFS already further East too, though not by a whole lot. Could still end up being okay but the entire thing does seem to be going wrong as the clock strikes 12. (as far as prolonged cold, goes)

Edited by Daniel Smith
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
Posted

An eastward shift of the northerly, but that should allow the low to undercut better. We'll see. 

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Lets wait until the models get to at least day 4, before saying it's a bad run :nonono: !

 

And at 6hrs I didn't really expect massive changes but tomorrow at 6hrs things could be very different especially when there's troughs and occluded fronts floating around.

 

I'm pretty sure it was a joke, there is never ever going to massive changes at 6 hours...

 

Edited by Barry95
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
Another run, another shift to the east as early as 24 hours out.[/quote

NURSE !

On topic and the gme reminds me of the failed easterly from a few years back which went at day 4.

Fortunately, it's the GME

 

Reminds me of the begining of the January 2013 cold spell, we got the slider that time

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2013/avn/Rtavn00120130114.png

 

I remember GFS was having none of it until the last 2 days too...

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

GME has us in a westerly flow now by 132. Not a particularly auspicious start to the 12z output.

 

Yesterday it was showing a lovely easterly.

 

Cannon fodder model...

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

The Low over Iceland looks a little stronger on this evenings run, -10 850's covering most of Scotland with a slack Northerly by Monday.

 

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Very strong atlantic ridge on the 12z.not sure where this low is going tho!!!know where app??

Edited by swfc
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

No idea what the GFS is doing now

 

Stronger ridging in the Atlantic but a deeper low staying North around Iceland rather than sliding Southwards.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

No idea what the GFS is doing now

 

Stronger ridging in the Atlantic but a deeper low staying North around Iceland rather than sliding Southwards.

My first stab at a guess would be.. The low would pump up the high a little and then it will topple over the uk as the jet rides over the top..

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

Completely different profile NE USA this run shows that it's all still up for grabs at t96.

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

12z looks better to me in prolonging the cold spell

 

gfsnh-0-114.png?12gfsnh-0-120.png?6

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands (170m asl)
Posted

Knew that easterly bias would prevail. Hopefully GFS sticks with this sort of pattern...or better! 

gfs-0-120.png?12
 

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

Am I the only one who thinks the GFS 12z is actually better in the medium term (days 4,5,6)?

 

Scandi high holding firm and toughing through the UK is keeping the AZH at bay.

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

12z reverts back to what it was showing 24 hours ago!! Upgrades again!!

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

GME says a complete no to prolonged cold and has us back in a mild Westerly flow very quickly.

 

12z GFS already further East too, though not by a whole lot. Could still end up being okay but the entire thing does seem to be going wrong as the clock strikes 12. (as far as prolonged cold, goes)

Yeah and it's also not a model to be trusted but the overall pattern may well be a return to the recent pattern which I might add is by no means winter over!.

Why you might ask well we had polar air with snowfall across the country now if you look at the upper air temps and polar profile it's dam cold in fact the air to our direct North and North west is as cold if not colder than anything to our East and northeast so any air from the north west although modified by the sea temps it's still proof as we seen this week that snowfall is a cert for the north northwest even the western side of the uk !.

Ok us in the south would need something exceptional but hey in the world of weather never say never.

Expecting massive swings in model outputs from now until there's a model that's 100% accurate and this is unlikely for sometime lol

But jokes aside upgrades down grades snow ice fog cold rain frost all feature but nothing remotely above average temp wise unless u live on lands end.

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Potential at 132..

 

post-7073-0-89787800-1421424769_thumb.pn

 

But given how different the 12z is to the 06z by just 92hrs on a hemispherical level, you may as well be hanging teabags outside to predict the weather. Never known a year for the models to be such utter tripe at any type of predicting.

 

GFS Upgrade can go in the bin as far as I'm concerned, models are useless.

  • Like 1
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