[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Doesn't them 2 charts equate to 2 mild days out of the next 10?

I thought that from looking at all the latest model runs from the past few days is that generally temps were going to be cool to cold countrywide with the VERY ODD mild day here and there as LP's pass through. I don't know if you meant in on purpose but the way you posted would suggest it is going to be nothing but mild from now on?, which could not be any further from the truth if you tried.

 

Odd, as I could swear he said 'the end of the run' in his post, which I'd equate to mean the end of the run rather than all of it?!

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Just a reminder that NOAA won't be running the GFS-P after today's 6z until Monday as they're doing work on the supercomputer which is currently running it.

[Rating Posts]

Yep, we did try the negative ratings but it didn't work so well!

 

There isn't an option to remove a like currently either I'm afraid. 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Somewhat confusing these two posts. Are we to suggest that looking forward that the models are struggling a wee bit?

 

One's AO and one's NAO - which are both quite different, more info about them here:

 

AO

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81903-the-arctic-oscillation-ao/

 

NAO

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/30315-ao-el-nino-la-nina-nao/

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Just a reminder as one or two posts have been removed, this thread still needs to have some relation to the model output, and posts talking about 'winter being over' and 'no snow in x, y or z this year' aren't that..

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

There'll be a few delays to the GFS-P this week, including a period of 4 days where it won't be run:

 

As we have mentioned, the GFS parallel is running on our backup

supercomputer.  This week NCO needs to do work on the backup computer
related to our pending supercomputer upgrade.  This will impact the GFS
parallel in the following ways:

Today, 12/2   the 12Z GFS parallel output will be disseminated late.

Wednesday 12/3 - Sunday 12/7  The GFS parallel will not be run after the
06Z cycle on 12/3.  We will resume the parallel on Monday 12/8 once the
system has been returned to service and all data has been caught up.  We
will send an announcement when the parallel dissemination resumes.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Nick's posted his latest 14 day synoptic outlook:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81941-synoptic-outlook-for-next-14-days-2nd-december-update/

 

"A transition to a less blocked outlook, with more in the way of wind and rain but also cold weather at times with snow over northern hills."

[New GFS Parallel]

Found the rogue, link - should be fixed now. 

[New GFS Parallel]

No, doesn't sound right - will look into that now

[New GFS Parallel]

It's been delayed to around mid-Jan, and yep once it's released the old version will stop running.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I guess we ought to close this in a bit and start a proper winter thread!

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

As we've reached December 1st and the start of (meteorological) winter, now's a good time for a fresh model output thread. 

 

As ever, please do try to keep this thread to discussion around the models. If you're wanting to moan/ramp or banter about the models there's a separate thread here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/

 

For those who maybe don't know where to find the various model outputs, many of them are available right here on Netweather:

 

GFS

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

GFS-P

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=

 

Ensembles

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

 

ECMWF

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

 

ECMWF EPS

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=

 

Met Office Global

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=

 

Met Office Fax

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

 

GEM

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gem;sess=

 

Model Comparison

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

 

GFS vs GFS-P Comparison

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfscomp;sess=

 

NMM-Hires (Extra)

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=nmm4;sess=

 

NMM-Euro (Extra)

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=nmm12;sess=

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

A bit late, but locking this one now - new thread in 2 mins.

 

New thread now open

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Since winter begins today, now's probably a good time for a fresh thread, so going to lock this one in around an hour..

[White Christmas 2014]

Santa has been updated!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

 

Also, big question of the day - picture or chocolate advent calendars, which are best?

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

Can the bickering stop now please - some people need to get a grip on how to express an opinion without resorting to ranting, name calling and the like.

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

For those who may be considering subscribing to Netweather Extra to get access to the extra data, NMM models, 5 minute radar etc for the winter, we currently have a winter sale on

 

More info here:

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?sess=

[WINTER 2014 / 15 PRELIMINARY VIEW - * COLD , POSSIBLY VERY COLD + DRIER THAN AVE *]

Am going to lock this now, seems pointless to just have it sat here open for people to bicker within. If Steve wants to post his forecast in here then he only has to ask and it'll be reopened, and hopefully that'll be the case as I know many would like to see it...

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

As ever, this thread is for moaning/bantering about the models not other members..

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Blocking to the NE? In fact I can't see much blocking at all at the moment unless you count the Azores HP sending the jet on its travels north.

 

There's still a block there for now which I think is the point OMM was making, not going to last much longer though...

 

 

 

 

Anyone else having trouble getting the updated ECM ensembles on meteociel? I can only get the 27th nov 00z and I have tried refreshing.

 

You can view them here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=

[Early winter hopes and chat]

For those looking forward to the start of winter, the winter homepage is now online, giving nice easy access to all things wintry!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-home;sess=

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

Couple of posts removed this morning, please can we try to keep it on topic in here - if you have an issue with any posts hitting the report button will alert the team to them, thanks

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

Does that mean, your computer is now screwed or not?

 

No, not as far as I'm aware.

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

When I clicked the link I get a message saying i've been hacked....suggest leaving it well alone!

 

Great forecast guys, here's hoping we get the SSW to kick it all off.

 

The express are among a number of sites which have had issues with hacking today

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30232899

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter]

Well, the Express are ramping it now...

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540842/Weather-forecast-winter-bitter-freeze-UK

 

Pretty out of order though really.

 

Yep, please ignore that - it's clearly just a heavily spun, overly dramatic article which doesn't represent the truth of what's written in the forecast. Not good really...