Paul

12z's rolling out now, so thought this would be a good time to remind everyone that we need your help to keep the atmosphere on this thread friendly. Trolls!! We know that occasionally some people post on here (and other forums) with the intention of causing hassle and controversy - eg trolling. When this happens we act, and we'll be able to act even more quickly if people hit the report button when they see a post that they believe to be an issue rather than responding to it. Troll Hunters Beyond that though, what also causes problems is some people believing every person who isn't jumping from the rafters to talk about cold weather is some sort of troll, determined to wind them up and ruin their chances of cold weather by daring to mention milder weather is possible! This type of thing is something we deal with every day (far more regularly than we need to deal with blatant trolling), it really can affect the discussion and isn't acceptable. Mildies vs coldies - no,no,no! If you're the sort to jump in all guns blazing at times, please just take a moment before reacting to someone - re-read the post, consider their view and if you want to disagree do it in the context of a discussion about the models rather than a point scoring frenzy of mildies vs coldies - it really doesn't have to be that way...

Yep, should be able to sort that - which account name do you want to keep?

Latest homepage update from Nick: Wet & Windy Today, The A Cold And Wintry Week Ahead

Sometimes there's a danger that by looking so far ahead at what may happen, we can miss what's happening right under our noses in the short term. Today being a prime example - more concerns over flooding - 24 hour rain totals from the NMM don't paint a good picture for the west of the country, and the sw especially. But once the rain has moved through with colder air arriving, the showers will turn to sleet and snow, with some decent accumulations over the hills..

Just to remind everyone - this thread needs to stay free of personal comments, digs and point scoring. Healthy discussion and debate = good. Getting snippy at people because they have a different opinion = bad. The vast majority of people are fine with this and never have a problem but a small minority aren't - so if you're in this minority please moderate yourselves or you will find the team will have to take further action which ultimately will mean you'll not be able to post in here for a period of time.

Please carry on with the model discussion here. If your post is more of an emotional reaction to the models (like - "This run is bad" , "This run is a shocker" , "That's it, the cold isn't coming", "This run is amazing!!!!!") please post it into the model banter, moans and ramps thread so we can keep this thread more discussion based. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/ Major Forecasting ModelsGFSECMWFECMWF EPSGEFS EnsemblesUK MetFaxGEMCompare The Big 4 If you think a post is a wind up, wildly off topic or breaking the forum guidelines - please don't respond to it, just hit the report button and the team will check it asap.

Locking this one for two mins - fresh thread live imminently. Those getting stressed, wound up or overly emotional perhaps take this opportunity to go grab a breath of fresh air or something Edit - new thread now live.. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79215-model-output-discussion-25th-jan-onwards/

Technically that's quite difficult I'm afraid + with so many ongoing large thread that would greatly reduce its usage and visibility so would kind of defeat the purpose. It's in as a trial currently, so we can see how it goes, how much people do or don't like it and then take it from there

Yep, it is quite subtle - although I'm hoping it's not even a minor irritation and is actually quite useful. But anyway. we'll see how it goes - if the general consensus is that it's a problem then we can remove/change it

The problem with off piste this season is that the fresh snow is still falling onto an icy base which may not bind properly, as I understand it the common thinking is that unless there was rain high up to effectively start it all again then the problems could be ongoing. I'm no avalanche expert so I'm not sure how true this is likely to be, but I've heard a few people who are very experienced off piste effectively writing this season off as it could be dangerous throughout. The photo on this post illustrates the problem! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=668513023187436&set=a.229847780387298.55085.143167125722031&type=1&stream_ref=10

Perhaps clear your browser cache, definitely no issues on this side. Could also be your dns needs clearing as well - info on how to do that here: http://docs.cpanel.net/twiki/bin/view/AllDocumentation/ClearingBrowserCache

Jo's latest blog is all about the snow risk over the next 7 days: It's definitely feeling colder, so any snow hopes, anything for end of January? View the full blog here

And once more - these threads (manmade climate change, scepticism of climate change) are for straight forward discussion of those subjects - if you want to disagree then post in the opposing thread. I know it's not a particularly natural way to debate, but it's in order to stop the point scoring etc which blights the mixed discussions. That leads to the next point - if your sole interest is point scoring and getting snippy with people because they don't share your view then you may as well not use any of the threads on here, as they're for actual discussion and that requires at least a semi-open mind, some empathy towards other people's positions, and the ability to respect other views even if they're the polar opposite to your own.

Here's the latest from Michael Fish - loads of weather to be keeping an eye on.. http://vimeo.com/84807303 Also, if you've not read it yet - Jo's update from this morning: Rain, Sleet and Strengthening Winds

Just to clarify - this thread is for model discussion - and that can cover all weather types, and from short to longer range so long as the discussion is model related. Yes, severe weather general threads are available when 'events' are likely or ongoing, and of course there are general weather chat threads too, but either way anything model related is fine in this thread.

Just as a reminder - model discussion requires at least some (in fact the majority) of your post to actually have something to do with the models. Please bear that in mind when posting, and if your post doesn't have this just post it elsewhere - there are many threads to get involved in

I know it's Monday morning, but is there really any need for sniping at eachother - if you're in a bad mood please just keep it to yourself!

4wd, this thread is in the extreme weather part of the forum, it's only you trying to twist it into something else - we all know by now what your views are on climate change, there really is no need to use every opportunity you can find to share them.

I can un-archive and merge the two if you'd like?

Just as a reminder, attacking other members is very much against the guidelines and spirit of the community so unless people are keen on not posting in here please stay clear of that type of thing - if you believe a post is an issue please just report it. Also, this being the model discussion thread, please can we stick to the model output - there are threads for met office discussion, tv forecasts and the like, and whilst passing mention in a post that is mainly about the models is ok, posts which have little to no model discussion in them and are solely about something else don't fit in here and need posting elsewhere. Thanks.

Fixed

Last I checked this was the winter discussion thread, not the 'have a go at other members for having a different view to me thread', so I've deleted all that stuff and would definitely suggest staying on topic from here on in.

Hunting for signs of winter? Jo's written a blog that's definitely worth a read: Hide and Seek Winter...

But anyway, absolutely no need to get into a flame war. We got plenty of stick for those summer forecasts, took it on the chin, admitted they didn't go to plan and learnt from it - end of story. Weather forecasters all get forecasts wrong, it's part of the job and the key is to learn from them and move forwards..

Agree to an extent, but when you say that the meto never went for it, they never went for it publicly because it was low confidence, we know though that they discussed it, saw the possibility and new it was a potential risk for a time, which essentially is what happened in here. Ok it won't have been discussed in the same way obviously, but this being an open discussion forum you'd never expect it to be. I think there's a fine line between getting carried away with something showing in the models and running with it before it's even close to nailed down, and discussing it with a bit of enthusiasm - yep of course some people jump on bandwagons at times, some people see a cold run at t+240 and start polishing the sledge only to see it disappear next run. And some of those people will then go on to blame bad models, dodgy forecasts and so on when that happens, rather than facing up to reality that is forecasting weather is hard, forecasting models are all going to lead us up the garden path from time to time, so being pragmatic about them and using as much info as possible is the way forward. But hopefully for every person who falls foul of that trap, there are 10 who learn about it! I guess all I'm trying to say is that discussion is good, different ideas and styles are good even when some of those ideas and styles are wide of the mark we can still all learn from it, and enjoy the discussion at the same time.