Sky Full

Looking outside, I think we're getting most of our share of that rain this morning! Not sure when 'showers' officially become 'longer periods of rain' or even 'persistent rain' but we havnt had a break all morning so far. However, it's comforting to know that Bournemouth is predicted to be even wetter than Pembrokeshire over the next 10 days - you won't see that happen very often (sorry, Bournemouth - but it's not just you!). The models are certainly not showing much dry weather in the reliable future, if you live in the south west or west of the UK.

What a miserable, wet start to the day it is. Horizontal, heavy rain being blown across by a strong south westerly straight off the Atlantic, shaking the trees and testing the roof. Cloud cover is almost down to our level bringing visibility down to about half a mile or less. It feels cold, too, and we've had to put the heating on again. Not a day to go out unless you have to. Not much sign of any change in these conditions for the foreseeable future, either. If this is what the Autumn is going to be like, roll on Winter please.

Just had an extremely potent shower pass through here - the latest of many smaller showers today. Torrential rain, very dark, red/orange tinged skies, and finished off with a lovely crack of thunder which rumbled around the valley for several seconds. The lane is drenched and running with water so I'm glad it's passed over quite quickly. The clouds are taking on some lovely colours now and there are still some towering shower formations on the horizon. Quite an interesting day weather wise.

Its been a wet day here today. Very wet. The rain started first thing and got gradually heavier all day. It's still pouring down now. The poor dog could hardly stay outside for more than a few minutes before rushing back inside again. Noticed a leak in one of our ceilings earlier. Could do without that really. On the plus side, the pond doesn't need any toppling up..... Will be nice to have a little respite tomorrow before another drenching on Monday.

......or perhaps we could say "ICE to see you, to see you ICE". No? I'll get my coat.

Yes, we are in for a few rainy days now if these rainfall accumulation charts are anything to go by: The next 6 days total rainfall for Wales according to the.... GFS... ECM.... Some very wet weather for some of us - keep the umbrella and wellies handy!

We had a short-lived storm on Saturday evening - like you, the first time I have seen lightning this year. The rain was intense for an hour or so, and there was some brilliant cloud to cloud lightning, but it passed over towards the north and the rain eased up around 8:30pm. Looking at the radar it was fairly local.

Apologies - the YouTube link above does not work so here is the original video which vividly shows the effects of the recent extreme rainfall in southern Spain.....

Certainly can't complain about boring repetitive sunny days here in west Wales! After a lovely sunny day on Saturday we had 100% overcast all day yesterday although it was quite warm and it stayed dry. This morning we again have a drab, cloudy start and we have had a little light rain overnight. The weather front which is responsible for this cloud is gradually moving away and breaking up anyway, so we should be able to see the sun again soon - but maybe not today! The next few days are set to be fair and dry but I expect we will still have some light cloud around at times. Not much if any rain is forecast and it continues to be a drier than average year in this area. I wonder if we will have to pay for this in late Autumn.... Given the extreme weather events we have witnessed in so many parts of the world this year i just can't help wondering if Mother Nature has something nasty planned for us this Winter.....

Devastating scenes from some towns in southern Spain following intense storms in recent days. The 'Gota Fria' is a regular Autumn weather phenomenon in the area but this has been one of the worst in recent years. Extreme weather events like this definitely seem to be occurring more frequently and with greater violence around the world which is in keeping with predictions made by climate change experts. I can't begin to imagine the cost of cleaning up and repairing the damage but it seems likely it will all happen again at regular intervals in the future. When visiting the area you are struck by the size of the usually dry storm channels (ramblas) which have been constructed in the past to cope with excessive rainfall but it would appear that these are inadequate now, at least for the conditions experienced this week. https://youtu.be/EO6ZFCX4skI

Well, we might be expecting a relatively dry few days coming up, but today has been relentlessly wet here..... Didn't think we were in for such a damp day according to earlier forecasts, but the rain just kept coming and coming. Looking forward to a sunny day tomorrow to make up for it!

...and in 10 days time ECM is predicting these conditions: 500s. 850s ...hello, Indian Summer!

As mentioned by others already, rainfall totals are likely to be below average over the next 7-10 days as indicated by these 10 day accumulated rainfall charts from the ECM, GFS, GEM and UKMO (6 days total): Some locations in the south and East Anglia might go the full 10 days without rain if the GFS is correct.

It's a damp and drizzly start to the day here with grey overcast skies, BUT the models are showing some lovely weather for Wales over the next few days. It could be unusually dry, too. Here are the expected total rainfall charts for the next 10 days from the GFS and GEM: Thats 10 days total, and it means some parts could go almost without any rain for this period. In fairness, other models are showing higher totals, but it looks very likely that we will all enjoy a spell of sunny, relatively dry and warm weather over the next few days.

The major models are all promising some lovely late summer conditions coming our way in around a weeks time: 500s: 850s: ECM GFS GEM ....but saving the best till last, in only 6 days time, the UKMO is boasting the following charts: Cor!! Could be looking at July there. No records likely to be broken, though..... And there really isn't any reason to worry that a few warm days in September will mean a lack of snow in January. If you don't believe me, read the Sun..... https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9887058/uk-weather-forecast-coldest-winter-years/ (courtesy of dbaloo)

'nuff said....

For those interested in the accuracy of the operational models, it is sometimes worth comparing the predictions for a single date and time separated by a week of evolution. The track and influence of Dorian was perhaps a more complicated issue than most for the models to resolve but they didn't all perform badly..... Predictions for 02:00 12/09 as shown on the.... 03/09/19..... today.... ECM GEM GFS The models today are all in pretty close agreement as to the conditions expected in 72 hours, but a week ago there were considerable differences. For my money the ECM has performed well, getting all the major features in the right general area meaning that the weather conditions we can actually expect were being predicted correctly by the ECM 9 days ahead. The GFS, on the other hand, was quite wide of the mark showing the remnants of Dorian tracking into the North Sea, forecasting much more unsettled conditions than we can now expect. This single example doesn't prove much except that even with the aid of these very powerful computer models the weather remains pretty unpredictable much beyond 120 hours ahead. Sometimes quite significant changes can occur in the patterns within as little as 96 hours so trying to predict how and when major weather events will develop and evolve still involves a lot of guesswork. No doubt we will see plenty of this in the coming season as we all try to detect the first major snowfall of Winter.....but if it was too easy, many of us wouldn't even be here....

Looking ahead to around +210/216 hrs (11/12 September), the GFS shows a much diluted ex-hurricane Dorian scoring pretty much a direct hit over the UK, followed hot on her heels by her younger sister: GFS +210 GFS +216 ECM and GEM on the other hand currently believe that the Azores high will strengthen towards the UK keeping ex-Dorian away to the north west..... ECM +216. GEM +216 They can't all be right but the actual evolution of Dorian's interaction with the Jetstream and its route across the North Atlantic will probably determine our weather for most of mid-September. Many of us will be watching these developments with interest I am sure.

Today dawned bright and sunny, light winds and cloudless skies. As the day progressed we had a few light cumulus clouds appearing and the breeze picked up but the sun was the winner overall. A little cool in the shade but in the sun it was a lovely day for the 1st of October the 1st of September! I wouldn't complain if we had another two weeks of these conditions but Dorian might have something to say about that by next weekend.....

Today has been completely overcast, with a strong south westerly wind and feeling cooler. Still, I suppose it is the 1st October on Sunday so not unseasonal. Wait. Did you say Sunday is only the 1st September? What......We're still in AUGUST????

Damp, 100% overcast but not actually raining. Cloud base at approx. 175m asl. Not as cool as last couple of mornings. Very light breeze. Clouds forecast to break around midday. We shall see....

Just watched this for the first time - absolutely dreadful conditions and its obvious that much more extensive damage is occurring somewhere out of the picture. Not a scene you want to witness at any time but certainly not in August. I hope they managed to salvage some of the bales and that their livestock were safe.

Another damp, overcast start this morning although the wind is light and it's a little warmer than the last couple of mornings. No sign of the skies clearing yet but I'm hoping to see the sun before midday if the weather forecast is accurate. If we can only clear away the low cloud before the weekend then we could have a couple of very pleasant days ahead. After that, it's uncertain whether next week will return to cloudy and wet, or sunny and dry!

Looking beyond the bank holiday towards the end of the month, the GEM indicates that high pressure could win out and deliver a fine end to August and a promising start to September. Unfortunately the GFS has a different view, building a much deeper low pressure to the north and keeping any high pressure bottled up in the Atlantic: +90hrs (26/08) - +192hrs (31/08): GEM: GFS: Which one is right? Or are they both wrong? Not too long before we find out but it would be good to have a late summer spell of warm and dry weather after a damp, windy and cool August (only in the west, obviously....)

Cool but mostly dry and partly sunny yesterday. Cool but wet and 100% overcast this morning. Very Autumnal. We have some friends from London visiting next week and I would love them to enjoy warm and dry weather for their trip to Wales but I am worried that the late summer heatwave predicted to occur in the south east might not reach this far west..... I must say it would be good to have another spell of warm and dry weather before the Autumn sets in properly. What we can guarantee is some of the most beautiful scenery anywhere in the UK and a break from the muggy, overheated capital....