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The models seem to be having trouble deciding what our weather will be like for the coming bank holiday week, but for my money the GEM has the best solution: The building high pressure manages to keep the troughs at bay - at least for a few days - bringing settled conditions for almost everyone. This would be a good way to bring August to a close and usher in Autumn!

....and the payback has duly arrived. We now have a spell of very wet and stormy conditions, not that unusual - for October or even November maybe. A pretty violent day for the month August though, with trees in full leaf and with the strongest gusts forecast for after midday in this area I am a little concerned for some of the trees around here. If this is anything to do with the increasing effects of 'climate change' then it doesn't bode well for the winter when the atmosphere is likely to be even more volatile. There are some early signs that we may get a repeat of this next weekend as well so I'll be checking everything that could come loose and putting away the garden chairs.....

Log fires! Goodness, it must get cold up there in those hills! It's been a (another) beautiful day here - sunny and warm - just about the perfect weather for me (during the summer, at least!). Had to go down to the vets in St Clears earlier (not for me personally, you understand) and afterwards drove down to Laugharne (one of the locations for the TV series 'Keeping Faith'). Such a lovely place and a very romantic castle ruin. Walked down to Dylan Thomas' boat house and enjoyed the view with the tide racing out. The sky was covered in fair weather clouds and there was very little breeze so in sheltered spots it was really pretty hot at times. I can't help feeling we will be made to pay heavily for all this lovely weather - and maybe not too long to wait either.....

I know we get plenty of c**p weather here in the west, rain and strong winds etc, but at this moment there is nowhere else I'd rather be. It's been a lovely summers day, sunny, light breeze and 20-21c - pretty perfect really. I am sitting watching three woodpeckers move from one nut feeder to the next while the sparrows and nuthatches await their turn. The bees have returned again and we have had plenty of butterflies in the garden. Earlier, a large green dragonfly visited the pond and was laying eggs for about 20 minutes. No rain here for a change, although its forecast to return by Tuesday. Not to worry, as I think think this summer has delivered some really good weather to our region already and we don't want to be greedy!

I like the sound of your water features! You got to have em for insects etc. I built a pond in March and filled it in April and then we've been planting it as fast as we can. I wanted wildlife but the boss wanted a few fish so we put in six small ones. We've had great fun watching them but the best thing has been the dragonflies - at least four different types and at least two have laid eggs. On the downside the sunny weather has brought the blanket weed but we've managed to keep it under control without chemicals. It's been a real hot day here today (yesterday was cloudy, drizzly and windy!) and a few butterflies have been around but nothing like last year. We've got a huge buddliea and I've hardly seen anything on it this year. Last year it was covered in butterflies so perhaps it's just a problem this year only?

We've had some rain here over the last few days but nothing significant and not enough to change the well-below-average totals for this area to date this summer. Looks like some further rain is due on Friday so this will help the growers and gardeners but next week there are indications of another spell of warm or even hot weather. This will probably not affect western-most areas as much so we won't suffer in 30c+ temperatures here but, even so, 2019 is beginning to look like delivering quite a reasonable summer even if June was disappointing overall. Still worried about the lack of bees though.....

Although I am having difficulty believing it, this is the 13th day in a row without rain here. It looks like we could get a shower before the end of the week but even so, that's been a lovely spell of dry weather which is a rare treat. Grass growing conditions have been very good this year due to the warm weather early in the year followed by the wet spring and the surrounding meadows have been alive with activity during the sunny weather as the silage is cut and baled before it rains again! However, I am concerned that there appears to be an absence of bees for some reason. Not sure what's happened but the usually busy insects are conspicuously missing here - even the buddleia is almost untouched. We have the odd one here and there but the numbers are significantly down. A local bee keeper feels that the poor weather in June has confused the poor things but hopefully they will get back to normal behaviour again soon!

A good agreement between the UKMO 500s and the GFS Jet stream charts for the end of the week, showing high pressure developing for the weekend bringing settled weather for all: UKMO. GFS Friday: Saturday: . Sunday:. Thats not just any old High Pressure - that's a UK High Pressure!

We have enjoyed this very pleasant summery spell over the last week or so, even if it has been non-record breaking, but it hasn't redeemed the season yet, as far as I am concerned. We need a three to four week spell of high summer weather to make 2019 memorable and there's not much sign of this happening in the models this morning. The GFS 0Z shows a 7-8 period after +192 influenced mostly by low pressure, unsettled with a westerly/north westerly airflow and average temperatures at best. Still plenty of time for this to be revised, of course - it's a long way off in modelling terms!

However, having just read through the full discussion of this issue can I say how interesting and informative it was for me, as a purely amateur weather fan. It never ceases to amaze me how many other subjects and sciences are involved with meteorology and how much you can learn by reading the output of specialists and non-specialists alike. Thanks to all who posted on the subject - and it's also nice to see that no tempers were lost in the discussion!

This weather is highly welcomed after the dross of early June.....spent the afternoon at Bosherston Lily ponds and Broad Haven beach - what a beautiful country we live in! It's a lovely sunny evening now and I can't believe there is NO RAIN in the forecast for the next seven days!. Bring on the rest of July and let's hope the sunny weather can continue for another eight weeks!

Just for the sake of interest, really, a chart from the GFS showing no rain anywhere in the UK for the next six hours: Thats not something you see every day - in fact I wonder if there has been another day this year when the above chart would have been showing? Seems unlikely.....but possibly in February?

It's a beautiful morning here in Pembrokeshire with wall to wall blue sky and sunshine right from the off. A very light almost non-existent breeze barely moving the trees and warm enough to go out in shirtsleeves at 6:30am. The garden is in full bloom with colour everywhere and it promises to be a proper June day - not before time! We can look forward to three days of dry and settled weather now which begins to make up for the weeks of cloudy, wet and cool conditions we have suffered so far. After a cool-down next week the first week of July is also looking promising with dry and settled conditions returning - but at this distance I don't believe what those weather models say ..... they do like to get us worked up and then disappoint us, don't they!

GFS expects the Azores high to build in solidly over the UK in the first week of July, which is nice... 1st - 5th July (50% confidence?): ....and continues to show dry and settled conditions for the next couple of days as well: 5th - 7th July (25% confidence?): For the period after that the GFS goes downhill bringing low pressure and unsettled conditions back - but by then it's only 5-10% likely to verify so probably won't happen....hopefully!

Another cloudy start today but much more humid and feeling warmer right from first thing. As the day went on the clouds began to thin and blue skies appeared at last! This afternoon we managed to reach the giddy heights of 20C but tomorrow promises to be much warmer - if the clouds can stay away. A lovely evening here now with a cloudless sky as the sun begins to go down, cooling off nicely and less humid which should allow a comfortable nights sleep (with any luck!).

Oh dear. Another dull, misty start here. No sign of the sun. I'm sure there's a blue sky up there somewhere but it's hiding from us again this morning. I think the sun is going to show itself later though, so I'm still hopeful of some bright and warm conditions - maybe this afternoon?

Very much an improving picture in this area - the rain moved away yesterday and was followed by a quite cool but misty night and a dull cloudy start this morning. Gradually the cloud has thinned out today and there have been a few sunny spells this afternoon during which the temperature shot up. It has become very humid and the temperature looks like remaining in double figures over night. If so, and if the sun comes out early tomorrow, I expect we will see over 20C for only the second time this year! The forecast is confident of higher temperatures still by Friday when we might get to the dizzy heights of 27C! So Summer managed to show its face during June after all, despite the poor start, and maybe this will continue into July. We can only hope!

Have just returned home after six days away in a remote location with no internet (!) to discover one of the most dramatic mood swings in this thread that I can remember. Last Saturday there was quite a bit of depression in here but now there's the old excitement back as we look forward to a little burst of summer - at last! The ECM this morning has this set up for Friday: That's a direct hit for the UK as far as the warmest 850s are concerned. The resulting highest temperatures are evenly spread over most of the U.K.: This is still 168hrs away so keep your fingers crossed.

Yesterday wasn't too bad - only a light shower or two and some reasonably bright periods in the afternoon, but still felt cold in the wind. There's no getting away from it - this June has been a poor month for summer weather. This morning we have a dreary, overcast start and we had a torrential cloudburst for half an hour before 7:00am. The rain has eased off now but it's predicted to return later and continue tomorrow with very little sun and below average temperatures. There doesnt appear to be much hope for improvement in the immediate future so my hopes for warmth and sun are now pinned on July....

Cloudy but at least it's dry and calm this morning. I wonder how long I will have to wait before the next sunny dawn happens. For the time being we must be grateful for a dry morning although rain is forecast for later and in fact every day over the weekend too! If there is any balance in nature then we must be in for an extremely hot dry period at some time later this year....

So it didn't rain ALL day yesterday - there were a few breaks and even about 5 minutes of sunshine! But the rain is back again this morning and I gather it's the same story in many other places. The rain isn't the main adverse factor of the current poor spell of weather, though - it's the unseasonably low temperatures. We have had to have the heating back on again in the evenings as the house is simply not warming up during the day. Nothing is growing properly (except the grass which is in need of cutting but has been too wet for days now) and the garden looks bedraggled most of the time. However, despite the rain, the local culverts are still not running and streams are not showing signs of flooding in this area at least. Just goes to show how dry the ground was to begin with and it's easy to forget that we had three of four weeks of below average rainfall before the current wet spell. Early signs are appearing of a possible improvement for next week so let's hope we return to proper summer by the end of the month!

Steady rain all day - even in Cardigan earlier - and all this evening. Looks like it's going to go on all night and maybe tomorrow as well.... At least it's not particularly heavy but the total amount is accumulating now and we might reach 40mm by Thursday morning. Lovely weather for the ducks...

I like to hear good news as soon as it's available - even if it's 'fake news' - and that's why I can't resist having a look at the CFS charts when the weather is dire, just to give myself some hope for a period beyond 10 days. Yes - I know it's very sad and the wife probably could have me certified but I can't help it, OK? Unfortunately for my sanity, the first incidence of a high pressure being forecast to centre itself over the UK - according to the CFS - does not occur until the 16th July: CFS 9 month +852hrs: The next is the 18th July.... CFS 1 month +888hrs Now I know these charts will be far from the actual conditions on the dates in question but it does seem that the current low pressure dominated conditions could hang around for a lot longer than we would like. It's also not a good sign that the CFS goes on to show low pressure rebuilding after these dates..... This is not a 'summer is over' post but I am getting the impression that summer has yet to start.

It's disappointing, to say the least, to be contemplating widespread weather warnings for heavy rain in the middle of June but here are the predicted rainfall totals up to Saturday midday (+108h) according to: UKMO. ECM GFS. ICON The GFS is the most pessimistic for the most widespread rain this week but all seem to agree that Merseyside, North Wales and the North East of England will have the highest overall totals - up to 90mm in some areas but locally this could be exceeded. This really is a poor outlook for a summer month so let's hope there is a significant change in the forces driving our summer weather so we can enjoy a warm and settled July and August and put all this soggy stuff behind us...

We escaped the worst weather yesterday and in Manorbier, Saundersfoot and Tenby there was almost unbroken sunshine all afternoon with quite decent temperatures. It's a different story this morning with rain already set in by dawn and looks likely to persist all day on and off. Still not as bad as other parts of the country though. Yet. Not to worry - we still have July, August and September to come.....