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ECM has high pressure meandering around the UK from the 21st March to the 27th March.... Trying to understand the whole picture, can anyone explain what other data I would need to look at to predict if this feature will bring mainly cloudy conditions or sun? Is it the strength of the high that matters, or the source of high level air etc.?

Rain and wind beginning to ease off here, now. I see its still coming down in Cardiff though. Bet the Irish wish they'd not asked for the roof to be left open on the stadium, after all...... Looking forward to some calmer and drier weather over the next few days - we need to dry out here now!

Back again this morning for your enjoyment and entertainment, that good old favourite (not) - SIDEWAYS RAIN! Yes - its coming down (sideways) hard this morning and it's at times like this I'm grateful to the inventor of double-glazed windows and doors. Mind you, I'm not so confident about the roof which is groaning under the strength of the wind.... I have just witnessed a poor defenceless blackbird being literally blown off its feet outside - it had to jump (not fly) into a hedge to avoid further humiliation. Nature can be cruel.....

As if we haven't had enough already, it's going to be a very wet and windy weekend.... Here are a couple of charts from the GFS showing total accumulated rainfall expected by Saturday midnight and maximum wind gusts for three hours from 2:00pm Saturday.... That's 6 or 7cms of rain quite widely and 50mph gusts well inland on Saturday afternoon - higher on the coasts. The goods news is that Sunday is expected to be a better day with winds dropping and the rain should have passed through - it might be quite a nice day! The rest of next week also expected to be quieter and drier with much lighter winds and generally higher temperatures - so maybe a little more like Spring!

Heavy rain here now with a strong, driving wind so the rain is hammering against the roof and windows. Oh well. Hopefully it will pass by tomorrow.... Definitely looking for every little sign of Spring now - preferably with an early reduction in the number of stormy lows so we can lose the wind and rain for a couple of weeks.

A fascinating result which just goes to show how statistics can reveal otherwise hidden information if you are willing to take the time to analyse them correctly, which I didn't! In my defence I still feel that this particular data set still leaves the theory to be proven especially in respect of a relationship between v. cold Januaries and v. cold Februaries: 50% related and 50% unrelated out of 13 seems closer to random than a trend. However, I can see that there is an argument for cold Januaries to be followed by cold Februaries (and probably vice versa) due to persistent weather conditions lingering during the climatically coldest months.

I agree and as things stand we might only expect strong winds at times but not stormy. It's still difficult for me to understand how a supposedly sophisticated computer model could get things so wrong at just 48 hours away - you would think they would all be in agreement by this point....

Definitely looking unsettled but as the day progresses there is little evidence of this possible storm on other models so either the Arpege is completely wrong or the other models need to catch up.....!

Oh dear. Here we go again..... There is potential for a significant storm on Sunday and the most pessimistic model on this subject is the Arpege. These are the possible wind speed charts for Sunday afternoon: . Wind direction and average speed:. Maximum gusts over a 3 hour period: 12:00 noon 03:00 pm 06:00 pm. . 144kmh is 90mph. There is still time for this to moderate or even disappear off the charts but I expect a weather warning for high winds will be issued sometime before midday tomorrow.

GFS this morning is showing the following conditions for Sunday.... Deep low pressure centred on the UK: High winds across the south and west: Bands of rain and showers with some snow mixed in: This seems to be a fairly typical picture for an average UK March.

You should definitely win a prize for perseverance under very trying circumstances! The absence of widespread lasting snow this winter has been matched only by the models almost constant promises of snowmaggedon which failed to deliver. It's been a hard lesson to learn for me but in future I shall take everything shown beyond 5 days as complete guesswork - much the same as the guesswork involved when your partner says 'Dont bother to buy me flowers or chocolates for Valentines day'..... Do you take this literally or is it supposed to mean the opposite? We'll probably never know the answer to that question or indeed whether the models are making it up as they go along.....

Well, it was dry today for a change, but we have had a strong, cold north westerly wind blowing making it pretty unpleasant to go outside. Looks like being a nice evening though. I'm not a fan of snow at this time of year so I hope the prayers of the snow-mad brigade are not answered. What we need now is sunshine and less rain please.... (which is almost as difficult as getting snow in my part of the world!).

NOW you've got my attention! I'll definitely hold you to that promise, Frosty. Much as I love a cold and snowy Winter, the time for deep snowfall and prolonged overnight frosts is over for this season, as far as I am concerned. There are Spring flowers in the garden and by the roadsides, and the birds are starting to nest. The last thing we need now is an Arctic blast to put everything back another month. Luckily, the GFS is beginning to tease us with a suggestion that high pressure will be back in charge towards the end of the month bringing calmer more Spring-like conditions to most parts of the U.K. It's a pity the models are not more believable at this distance but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that these conditions are still being shown in a couple of days!

I have a lot of respect for statistics generally and you can often make predictions in many fields using them, but looking at your results I would suggest that you can't use one month's CET's to predict another month, or to forecast the winter ahead, no matter how far back the records go. The results for January and February just seem completely random, which is really the story of the U.K. weather, month to month. The best use of the CET records is to track the changes in average temperature over the decades. No doubt this data is used among other things by the long range climate models to predict where overall temperatures are likely to be in the future.

.....so, it did rain a lot over night but not really too bad considering the warning. I don't have a rain gauge so I can't tell you how much rain fell but I've seen it much worse and I think the caravans safe for now....! Unfortunately for us I think there's more of the same to come and I don't think we can expect a dry spell for a good 10 days at least.

If anyone still needs persuading that relying on any individual operational run beyond +144hrs is a waste of time, here are a couple of comparisons from the ECM and GFS showing their thoughts from 10 days ago on today's conditions together with the actual conditions which have developed: ECM -240hrs showing 8th March: ECM today's chart for 8th March: GFS -222hrs showing today: GFS today's chart: Its odd that both the ECM and the GFS showed a similar picture 10 days ago, but both got it wrong!! Other than the general return to an active Atlantic with low pressure the main influence, neither model managed to get any of the details right. There is no doubt that anything showing at +240 is almost certainly not going to verify. But you knew that, didn't you?

Given there's a MetOffice weather warning out for rain in South Wales thought I'd have a look at the expected rainfall totals over the next 36 hours. This is how the UKMO sees it: Only the highest ground in Snowdonia and the Brecons expected to have over 6cm of rain by Thursday midnight, other areas widely 4-5cm (2"), which although wet is not a deluge. There could be some local flooding but nothing we're not used to!

Glad you got back OK. We also had a lot of rain today but although it was quite noisy here for two or three hours I didn't think the storm was as bad as it could have been. No damage as far as I can see and it's all gone quiet now so somewhere else must be taking a battering instead. Hope you had a great St David's weekend despite the weather - impressed you walked the dogs in the rain!

Storm Freya : GFS has upped the ante this morning regarding maximum wind gusts on Sunday afternoon - now showing 70mph (110kmh) gusts widely across west Wales but just off the west coast of Pembrokeshire its says 90mph (143kmh) gusts are possible: Not a day to be out in a boat of any size in the Irish Sea.... People say the GFS overdoes these predictions so we will have to wait and see just what wind speeds are achieved and what course the storm takes but at least by Monday conditions should have eased considerably.

Best make sure it's well anchored to the ground! All the weather models are predicting gales on Sunday afternoon with gusts exceeding 60mph for west Wales and Pembrokeshire in particular. This is the Arpege - the most pessimistic of the lot - which is promising 70-80mph gusts between 10:00pm and midnight..... Other parts of Wales can also expect high winds Sunday afternoon but the west coast is likely to see the most 'exhilerating' conditions.... Some heavy rain also expected so not a nice end to the week really.

Based on what I've seen of them, there is almost no chance of any weather model giving an accurate prediction of what the weather will be like in 10 days, because we can get wild swings in the weather in seven days or less. However, it looks like we are in for 7-10 days of westerlies bringing a series of low pressure systems our way. There is likely to be a lot of rain in our area so the ground will not be dry for long, and this should get the grass growing again. There could be some gales at times but there are no strong signals for a return of really cold weather as things stand. Of course, any of these low pressure systems could wind themselves up and draw air from the north for a day or two. This might give some people a frost and even a little snow but my personal opinion is that west Wales is going to see some average temperatures for at least a couple of weeks with windy and wet conditions at times before some warmer and more settled weather comes along towards the end of the month. Please don't take my word for it..... Best advice would be wait for another week before making any decisions!

Astonishing weather today and yesterday - temperatures here slightly had the edge taken off because of the breeze but this is probably because we are fairly exposed to the wind. Even so, great weather for February but I am afraid we will be made to pay for it in March. Unfortunately there is still plenty of time left for storms and colder conditions to occur - and they probably will - which is bad news for the early flowers and bees - and even butterflies - which have been encouraged to show themselves sooner than they should have done. However, if we can get through the next two months without a severe or prolonged cold and frosty spell then the growing season will have been given a good start this year.

Well it's been a long slow process but we do now have 100% cloud cover as predicted. It also looks likely that we will get some rain judging by the look of the clouds. We won't be seeing the sun here again until tomorrow - that's for sure. But plenty of sunny, mild weather being promised through next week for Wales before the Atlantic gets its act together and brings stronger westerly winds back, and the likelihood of rain, by next weekend.

Outlook for the weekend according to the ECM:- Cloud cover starts to increase from the west on Saturday morning and by 10:00am has reached most parts although the far south east remains clear at this time: : Cloudy conditions continue and light rain moves into the far west by 4:00pm: The rain doesn't get very far and has almost disappeared by 5:00pm but still affecting Pembrokeshire, Anglesey and the Llyn Peninsula: but by 12:00noon Sunday everywhere should be enjoying some sunshine again:

What a contrast in conditions over just twelve hours today! A dull, overcast, drizzly start and quite a chilly wind blowing at 6:00am but by 6:00pm it has turned dry, clear and cloudless, the wind has dropped, and the temperature feels like April. As far as I am concerned these conditions can hang around as long as they like. Spring - BRING IT ON! I can definitely wait until November for winter to show itself again.