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I would love to see some early snow settling as much as anyone, but I can't see it happening this week tbh. With maximum 850s of 4-5 I don't see snow falling anywhere in Wales outside Snowdonia and the Brecons, let alone settling. This is what the ICON shows for the next few days - not really cold enough:

There is plenty of hope-casting going on elsewhere on NW but the chances of an early Winter cold spell of weather affecting Wales have receded this morning. We will see some average or slightly below average temperatures over the next few days but we may to wait a little longer before we see any significant snow. We will get some, though - winter hasn't even started yet!

I'm straining to peer into the future to try and discover what conditions we will see at the beginning of winter proper. These are the current charts for +240h which is all I have access to....... 500s. 850s ECM GFS GFS Par GEM JMA. . There certain similarities in places but more than enough differences to leave confidence in any one outcome quite low. The main feature which seems to be common to all is that high pressure remains in place near Greenland and as long as that holds up we have every chance of a cold start to December.

These charts from 1st December 2010 preceded some of the most memorable winter weather seen in December in recent years: We all know what followed in 2010. So when I saw these charts from the GFS showing a possible evolution for 01/12/2018 I couldn't help making comparisons..... i would say they hold at least as much potential, if not even more, for a cold and wintry December this year. Very exciting prospects indeed! Now all we need is for these conditions to verify..... What are the chances, eh?

Just been outside with Rosie (the dog...) ... Sun's broken through, patches of blue sky visible, still a lot of shower cumulus about but it seems to be thinning. Not bad now, for a mid- November day. Fairly mild but quite breezy. Funny how conditions can change so dramatically over 12 hours. Thankfully we seem to be free from damage, although plenty of water still streaming off the fields so I guess the river levels will take a while to subside. No sign of any real cold yet but plenty of time for that before Christmas, eh?

Another evil day for Wales yesterday with some river levels in the south west getting close to the record maximums recorded in early October. Some respite overnight has seen levels recede a little but any heavy showers today in the wrong places could bring some localised flooding. The wind has dropped overnight and it's been a calmer start to the day but already we have had a heavy downpour. Currently the sky is brightening again here and I'm hoping for a couple of hours without rain if we're lucky. Looking less stormy and possibly sunnier at times next week but the weather remains changeable if still on the mild side. Have not lit the fire yet as not really cold enough yet here at least, but we've made it up ready!

Just got back after three weeks abroad in England... Have been watching the rainfall levels while I was away but could not believe the amount of water on the rural roads around here. They seem to be almost at capacity already and yet there is another 60+mm rain forecast for parts of south west Wales over the next three days. Together with high winds today and tonight this is not good news for our location but at least next week promises to be less wild and a bit drier.... The sky is just lightening to a dull steely grey with heavy cloud cover and rain is imminent. Will have to take down the bird feeders again or they'll end up in the undergrowth later if we get the wind gusts as predicted.

OMG. What a time to be a weather enthusiast! After some of the most eventful weather conditions to come our way in recent years showing up in just the last nine months alone, we now have the following charts on view in the pretty reliable short term - and it's not even November yet!! UKMO ECM GFS GEM. . Surely this is the stuff of deep mid-winter? No, it's just 144 hours away. But the best thing is, it's brought back all the old NW Coldies to move this thread along at three pages a day and more. Fantastic reading, hours of fun, informative, educational and sometime hilarious posts galore. You just can't buy this stuff with money. Thanks to everyone out there taking the trouble to make their thoughts known to us all - and helping me to understand a little more about this wonderful, chaotic, unpredictable thing we call WEATHER!

Goodbye Callum. You weren't invited but you came anyway. You wreaked pain and damage on the people of Wales and you stayed too long. Good riddance.

More powerful than even the October 1987 'hurricane' then? That is surprising - imagine how much worse conditions would have been had Callum made landfall in Ireland or the south west of the U.K. Only by chance have we avoided extensive damage this time, but are these events going to be more commonplace and more extreme in years to come?

The wind here just keeps coming and coming with very violent gusts every now and then. I think the valleys around the Preselli Hills somehow concentrate the wind into a funnel effect. I know the gusts can't be more than 65-70kph maximum but it seems much worse when you hear the roof complaining, the trees roaring and see mature oaks and ashes being shaken around like twigs. The rain eased off a bit earlier but seems to be trying to return. This is taking its time to 'blow through' I have to say. Those inland and in sheltered spots are lucky to have missed it.

Was woken at 3:00am by rain hitting the window like a fire hose, driven by very strong gusty wind whistling around the eaves. Couldn't get much sleep after that but we had a lull in the rain after dawn for a couple of hours. Raining steadily again now but the wind, whilst still gusty, is not as wild as last night. The short term models indicate that wind spreeds will pick up and rainfall will intensify again between 12:00 and 13:00 so this might be the peak period for this location. I am hoping for a slow but steady decline in the wind and rain during the rest of today and tomorrow and a relatively calm Sunday. Curious how the storm centre has tracked out in the Atlantic off the west coast of Ireland and will be in the vicinity of Iceland before long but the worst conditions (apart from out in the Atlantic) are over Wales, and perhaps Cumbria, a couple of hundred miles away.....

There was a lull in the rain here for a couple of hours after dawn but it's back now in earnest. The sky is darkening as I write so I guess there's a heavier burst not far off. On the plus side, the wind so far is not as bad as last night and although gusty it's not strong enough to be damaging, here at least. We'll cope with the rain in this area because there's plenty of culverts and streams to take the water away but it's not ideal if you need to be driving this morning.

I have been woken by the noise of heavy rain being driven horizontally at the window by strong gusty winds. I'm wondering if I will get any more sleep tonight. The rainfall amount is expected to increase over the next three hours as are the wind gusts. The roads around here are going to be a mess in the morning.

The expected rainfall accumulation over the next 60 hours according to the short term models: WRF ARPEGE ICON GFS Wales and the Lake District to cop the heaviest rainfall totals. Particularly in the Brecon Beacons where the GFS expects 130mm+ in two days. For many areas in Wales this will amount to a months rain in two days so some local flooding is likely particularly in low lying areas, hence the yellow and amber weather warnings issued. It's a little annoying because the track of storm Callum is way off in the Atlantic to the north west of Northern Ireland but all this associated windy wet weather is tracking across Cardigan Bay in its wake.....

50mm+ rain likely on Friday for my location..... 60mm+ rain on Saturday and accompanied by winds with gusts perhaps exceeding 60mph at times. Oh joy. Bring on Monday, then. Let's get this weekend over asap.

Fantastic clip! I loved it. The contrails look like skyrockets! Only trouble is, you're now going to have to post one of these EVERY DAY please.....

My goodness. What a wonderful summers day this is. Wall to wall sunshine and blue skies. 18C. Light(ish) breeze. What a pity we can't have a week of this before the cold, cloudy, wet and windy weather returns. However, looks like the weekend will bring more typical mid-Autumn conditions with plenty of wind and rainfall. By Sunday, today will already be a fading memory..... In the meantime I'm going to get outside for the rest of the day.....

Those charts are quite graphic illustrations of the stormy conditions in parts of the Atlantic. The first chart reminds me of a yo-yo being rewound on its string straight back to the hand holding it. Where's the hand? Right over the UK! I suspect the intensity of that feature will have subsided quite a bit before (if?) it makes landfall in our neck of the woods though.

It's a much better day here now, though, if a little chilly in the enthusiastic breeze. Lots of blue sky with light cumulus clouds. Speaking of Autumn colours.... .

Benign, settled and, dare I say it, seasonally above average temperatures on offer from the models for around the 13th October according to these charts: ECM +192 The continental air is relatively warm and dry with almost all of the European continent rain-free: GFS GEM agrees: Oh dear. JMA begs to differ: JMA: Interesting. I wonder who will get the closest to verifying......

Yes, it's pretty gloomy all right. Heavy overcast all day today with light rain at times, and definitely colder. The good thing though - it's pretty calm with only the lightest breeze. Over the weekend more rain is expected but maybe a bit drier next week. As you say, the colours seem to be reaching their best - our blueberry bushes are shining out in various shades of red, orange and russet and we have a young cherry tree which has managed to turn almost completely gold. Love the colours at this time of year and will be pleased if we can avoid stormy winds for another couple of weeks so we get to enjoy them for the longest.

After a few days away we're back in beautiful Pembrokeshire again. Couldn't wait to get home. Today has started with a lovely still morning, pink tinged clouds as the sun rises, against an otherwise clear sky. Hope it stays clear like this but we are promised a generally cloudy week I believe. However, it looks like we will mainly stay dry this week with light winds until the weekend.

2018 - will it be the year that delivered in every season? Exciting Winter weather, spectacular Summer and now looking like a decent Autumn. Now, can we hope to see some snow before Christmas? The CFS is working hard on this one. Bring it on! . . (Just for fun, obviously...)

Well, the clouds soon cleared this morning and the sun came out followed by plenty of fast moving fair weather cumulus making for a very interesting sky. We had a lovely walk through tree lined lanes drying quickly after the morning rain, enjoying the early Autumn colours and crossing a fast flowing river glittering in the sunlight and tumbling down a narrow gulley. This is what the Autumn should be like, and long may it last.