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Snow not expected to fall in Wales (Snowdonia excepted) over the weekend according to the ICON: Sadly just rain in the forecast for this area up till Christmas....

Welcome home! You haven't missed anything wintry here but in another thread there're going mad for snow next week. Don't expect it'll reach me but you might be lucky. Don't hold your breath though. It's more likely to happen nearer Christmas I'd say....

It's a chilly, blustery and wet start this morning. Seems like we're stuck in a rut with the weather right now. It's not deterring the bluetits, great tits and sparrows though - they're very busy at the nuts and seeds this morning. It looks like the winds will fall lighter in the next few hours and hopefully we'll get a couple of hours of sunnier skies - I've really got to get on with some fence repairs today....

Purga got there first! GFS 0Z shows a more wintry picture first thing Christmas Day: Thats a white Christmas for many! Hope it doesn't disappear by tomorrow.....

GFS (P) 0Z gives us a FI prediction for first thing Christmas morning: It would be a calm, settled but possibly cloudy start, cold but dry everywhere. In the absence of any snow I would take this over a wet and windy Christmas every time. Obviously plenty of changes to come in the next few days but this outcome would not be the worst we could hope for.

.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter: Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that. Will it?

Yay! Frosty's back! Now I KNOW it's definitely winter and it's gonna SNOW!

That's an amazing satellite image there - you could hardly have drawn a more perfect spiral showing the air circulation around the low, or a straighter line to pick out the leading edge of the front. I'll never get tired of the patterns created in nature....

After (yet another) VERY wet night with blustery winds we have a respite this morning with a bright sunny start and light wind. There are some shower clouds visible on various horizons but so far dry here..... This could be the best day of the week because it's likely to go downhill fast from tonight through the weekend. There seems to be an endless train of Atlantic low pressure systems headed our way, some of which could turn nasty, so no let up in the run-up to Christmas as far as I can see. The run-off from the fields is pouring onto the roads around here and all this has to end up in low lying rivers in the next 24 hours. There's likely to be some local flooding reported today in South Wales so let's hope for a few rain free days next week to dry us up a bit!

The Jetstream is expected to have the UK directly in its sights over the next few days as seen by the GFS: This pattern continues pretty much uninterrupted through to the end of the GFS run at +384h. This would not allow any periods of settled weather to get established and may bring more in the way of windy and wet conditions for most of us until well into December.

I also enjoy violent and extreme weather when I feel relatively detached from it but I do get worried when its testing the doors, windows and even the roof of the house! The wind has oddly dropped considerably since early morning although it is still drizzling persistently - but this is fairly normal for the time of year in this area TBH! I don't think this is the only stormy weather Wales will experience before the end of the year, and maybe we'll be made to pay for the extended period of calm, dry and relatively sunny conditions we recently enjoyed.

That little kink in the western approaches has just passed over south west Wales bringing an hour of very heavy rain and violent wind gusts - nasty conditions outside right now. Looks like it will clear here in a couple of hours moving north east across the rest of the country, losing strength but still bringing strong winds to many parts this morning.

It's difficult to describe the condions here over the past hour as this little feature is crossing Pembrokeshire - heavy lashing rain and violent wind gusts throwing water at the windows like a fire hose. Not pleasant. Looks like other areas of the country will also be enjoying some stormy conditions for a while this morning.... At least it looks to be moving through quickly and perhaps all will be calmer by mid-morning. Let's hope this is the last bit of violent weather for a few days now.

Great to see you back again and glad it was just an IT problem! I'm hoping the worst of the gales are over for SW Wales for the time being at least - it's been howling round my roof all afternoon! The next couple of days should see calmer conditions but it looks like we can all expect further rain leading up to the weekend...

A graphic colour enhanced satellite image of the circulation in storm Diana just off the west coast of Ireland at around 9:00 am this morning: The total accumulated rainfall for the next 72 hours now not looking as bad as first predicted a couple of days ago -

The total rainfall expected over Wales in the next 72 hours is not looking as bad as predicted a couple of days ago according to the GFS: Around 40mm over the Brecons, Presellis and coastal Snowdonia is not too bad over three days. It hammered down in Haverfordwest for most of the morning yesterday and the roads were running with water, so a few days with a little less rain would be a good thing.

Wet and breezy first thing this morning - goodbye calm, cold, sunny days .... hello stormy, wet and mild! The maximum wind gusts in Wales are likely to be felt on Wednesday between 12:00 noon and 3:00pm, as the storm centre moves north-east: 1:00pm: 2:00pm: 3:00pm: Widespread gusts up to 60mph, coastal areas up to 70mph, but potential in exposed places of 80mph+. Strong winds in all areas both sides of this peak period.

Everyone can expect to get wet in the next few days....except maybe the far north east of Scotland.... Accumulated rainfall totals for the next 72 hours as predicted by the WRF, Arpege and ICON: Dartmoor and the Brecons taking a soaking there.

Not seen Knocker for the past few days - hoping he will give us an update soon. His analysis is second to none.

The Met Office have issued a yellow weather warning of high winds for both Wednesday and Thursday covering coastal areas of south, west and north Wales and also includes most of the south west, Devon and Cornwall. Maximum gusts at present look likely to be along Irish Sea coasts. Will know more by tomorrow.

The Atlantic is back in full control of the weather by the end of the week as shown by (in order) the UKMO, ECM, GFS and GEM: Another low pressure system lining up in the far west to follow this weeks deep Atlantic depression looks likely to continue the unsettled conditions into early December. No sign of any meaningful blocking in the foreseeable future so we may have to wait until mid-December for any sign of serious cold appearing. The situation can change within quite short time frames, of course, but these charts don't look likely to alter much in the coming days.

Moving on to Thursday (+96h) the main models see the north and west still being battered by the imminent Atlantic system but at least it has stayed in the Atlantic so the worst conditions confined to the west coast of Ireland, probably..... 1) UKMO; 2) ECM; 3) GFS; 4) GEM.... 1) 2) 3) 4) The location and strength of the maximum wind gusts expected over the next 96 hours as predicted by the ICON and ARPEGE models: The Midlands and south east England escaping the worst of the stormy conditions this week at least.

Quite stormy conditions for some on Wednesday - especially the further west you are....wind gusts at T+72hr as predicted by the 1) WRF, 2) ARPEGE, 3) ICON, 4) GFS: 1) 2) 3) 4) There is also quite a bit of rain associated with this system. The exact track and speed of this deep Atlantic low pressure has yet to be determined but let's hope it stays as far to the west as possible. At least it seems to zip by fairly quickly next week.

I'm no expert but these charts at +192h next week don't look good for cold, sadly: 500s 850s ECM GFS GEM Changeable and mild at best, unsettled and even stormy at worst, and these conditions look likely to continue into early December. This is not what was previously on offer and it's disappointing to see the models reverting to type: promising something exciting then changing their minds. The hope is that they have over-reacted and the weather will find a way back to cold again soon. No need to panic - winter has a long way to go yet. It only takes a week to get dramatic weather swings in our part of the world.....

Hmmm.... NETWEATHER snow forecast disagrees with me, though...