Sky Full

ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!

But....can we be sure this feature will form at all......? Here are the northern hemisphere charts at +240 (5th February) from this mornings output: ECM GFS GFS (p) GEM. Not much agreement there......the only common trend in our location seems to be that the Azores high has been flattened and Atlantic is back in charge with everything coming from the west. No sign of blocking and no easterly or northerly elements. Perhaps this is the trend we should expect for February? As ManWithBeard, JohnHolmes and others have been saying for a long time, the ensembles must be consulted for guidance at this range.

Most of the posts on Netweather are interpreting the enormous variety of model outputs to predict the most likely weather conditions over the next few days or even two weeks ahead, but it seems to me that only those members like Knocker and a few others who concentrate on the short term (24 - 72 hours ahead) are likely to get it right. Here are some examples of model variations over only a 10 day period showing the northern hemisphere for today as predicted 10 days ago compared with the actual conditions this morning: Charts from the 16/01 for 26/01 Same model, actual conditions on the 26/01 ECM GFS GEM Perhaps not surprisingly none of these models either agreed with each other or were able to accurately forecast today's northern hemisphere conditions, and their predictions were in fact quite wide of the mark with only the ECM getting anywhere near the right solution. As far as the detail in our small area of the world is concerned the 10 day outlook in these examples was quite misleading. It just proves to me that although long term trends might be deduced from the model output, beyond 72 hours almost anything can happen locally and we should not be surprised if actual snowfall is not seen in the charts until it's almost on top of us.

Can't say our weather is boring here in Wales with wind, rain, and possibly snow all due over the next few days..... Up to 75mph gusts on Sunday especially in the south west: 30mm of rain over most of the country in the next 36 hours: followed by snow on Tuesday but only to the highest ground: ....all according to the ARPEGE - other models see things differently of course!

The quite significant differences between the ECM 0Z and 12Z for Saturday 2nd February: 500s. 850s 0Z 12Z. The low is further south and more intense bringing colder and more widespread uppers. Must be a move to a colder evolution..... (nb. The 12z charts do show conditions 12 hours later than the 0z displayed but I still regard this as an upgrade!)

In an effort to keep everyone's hopes alive for a proper cold spell this winter, I am daring to post more charts from the CFS (1 mnth) which is still promoting a frigid few days in mid-February: The odds are stacked against this from happening but it remains a possible outcome and only three weeks away......

Might be an interesting day for Wales next Wednesday if this comes off.....

We've been robbed of our Beast from the East by the Pest in the West....

If I'm reading this right, ECM still suggesting several hours of widespread snow on Wednesday..... ....but probably only light if it happens at all ??

You're easily pleased! .....but if it's something white and fluffy you had in mind the ICON says you might get your wish before the end of January!

Snowy possibilities next week? M4 corridor to be buried....

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This post has so much potential. Must be in the running for post of the day for the phrase "potential stonkers" alone!!! or "swignometers" - which would be a much better name for breathalysers, surely? I like it a LOT! Only on NETWEATHER, eh? (with apologies to Quicksilver1989)

For some reason I like to compare the outlook and performance of the weather models over a set period to see how closely they agree or disagree, so here are the four main models at +144 hrs (6 days out) which is pretty much the limit of the so-called reliable period: 500s. 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM . At first glance they are similar but there are enough subtle variations between them at +144 hours to ensure there will be substantial differences at, say, +240 hours. However, at this range we can be fairly confident that the overall conditions will be defined by a north-westerly flow originating from a cold location near Iceland and this will result in average or below average temperatures especially for northern UK. As the low pressure system in the North Atlantic moves west the winds will progressively come from a northerly source which will prolong and perhaps accentuate the colder conditions at the end of the month. It must be said that even within 144 hours there is scope for quite significant changes in the actual evolution but I will looking at the charts again in six days to see which model was closest to predicting the correct outcome....

Wow! That IS a great view! I would swap a few 30C days every year in a city to have that view every day!

Excellent summary of how most of us are probably feeling on here, given that snowpocalypse is now off the table for January (except for all our friends in Scotland perhaps)! Time hasn't run out yet but we sure need to see something dramatic happening in the next four weeks for it to be memorable given that Spring will then be just around the corner. Just to show that this is possible, though, and to keep everyone's hopes alive, I have decided to risk a hail of criticism from the purists by posting the following CFS charts: Yes, I know it's 900 hours away (27th February) and yes, I know they'll be gone tomorrow, but its worth looking at them because it shows a BFTE2019 is still possible, among the many millions of other possible ways the UK weather could go in the next 30 days. Who knows, it might come earlier. Or it might not happen at all.... All I know is that I will be here every day, like a mug, waiting for the models to show these conditions in the short term. But then I always check my lottery numbers too, and that never works.

OMG! Just seen your latest post above - if that Monday night snowfall is still being shown on Sundays charts I'm definitely travelling back Monday morning!

Thanks mate - I thought you might say that. Might try and get back Monday as it happens. Mind you, I think there might be worse conditions on the cards for the following week so anyone travelling after next weekend should keep a close eye on the forecasts.

Hi Andy. I've got to drive back from London one day next week - I can pick either Tuesday or Wednesday. Assuming I make it back down the M4 to make my first EVER free crossing back to Wales (at last!!) will I make it back along the rest of the M4 to Carmarthen, as things stand? What day would you choose - or neither??

There is talk among some experienced posters on here about current model offerings recalling 'old school' charts. I believe they might be thinking of certain infamous winters of last century so I thought it would be worth putting up a couple of today's charts followed by charts from a similar period in 1947 and 1963, just to see if there is any resemblance at all. I think all the following charts hold enormous potential: GFS 28/01/19 ECM 25/01/19 24/01/1947 17/01/1963 Are there any similarities between them? What do you think.....?

Looking beyond the imminent arrival of cold conditions next week, the following week could be even colder! Just look at the way the models are predicting the conditions to evolve by the end of the month: ECM GFS GEM. . The ECM is showing exceptional cold for the 28th January. If these conditions verify then next week is just the precursor to an even colder spell at the end of the month when disruptive snow might be expected almost anywhere in the UK...

Don't forget the old adage: "Get the cold in first....."! .... Once the cold air is established the snow is bound to follow

I know we should all be cautious about taking the FI charts seriously, but you have to have a little hit of fun sometimes..... Just look at the end of the GFS run from last night - it's sheer model poetry: That would bring seriously cold conditions nationwide.

The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount. These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!.... Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west. Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!

So, the GFS has turned up the excitement level a couple of notches today. At last we can see something properly wintry for the whole country within less than 10 days. Here's the GFS op showing precipitation type and snow accumulation levels at +162h: CAUTION: do not take these charts as gospel...yet...but the possibility of most of us seeing a wintry spell of weather is getting more and more likely as we approach the end of the month. It's certainly got me interested now, at any rate - but we need more support across the other models. It's my guess that we are going to see that support by the weekend.