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DAFFODILS!

You might also be interested to see how the models have varied from their forecast of 10 days ago. Here are the ECM, GFS and GEM from 7th January showing the 17th January, together with their current output for tomorrow: +240 hr from 7th January: +24hr from now: ECM GFS GEM It is obvious that they all agree about tomorrow's picture..... However, not only were they unable to agree with each other 10 days ago, none of the models were able to predict the correct conditions at +240 (with the exception of the ever-present Azores high) even though we have been experiencing generally settled and non-volatile weather over this period. Surprisingly perhaps, given the flack it generally receives on this forum, the GFS seems to have come closest to getting it right, in my opinion. This just goes to prove that it is pointless getting excited about 10 day charts because the models are not good enough to pin down the detail. They're only any good for looking at trends and disappointment awaits anyone who believes that what is showing today for 10 days time is going to verify......

Well, I really hope you're right about that but despite the often repeated mantra in the other thread; "It's all going to kick off in 7-10 days" (or similar) which I have been seeing for, well, at least four weeks now, the models are not showing anything other than a brief north-westerly here, or a short lived north-easterly there. Nothing to suggest a two to three week spell of frost and snow which I think is the hallmark of any self-respecting proper winter. The weather patterns, and especially the jet-stream, will have to make some serious u-turns pretty soon if anything prolonged and seriously snowy is going to affect the UK this winter. Can't believe I'm writing this - it sounds like a 'winter's over' post and I have to remind myself that we still have up to two months when really cold conditions can occur, so must keep the chin up!

There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come. But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK. Snow on the beaches in Greece? I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost. It really isn't fair. ?️?️?️

Could not agree more with your comment..... This is a very helpful post for beginners like me! However, with all the anticipation created by the SSW I have been expecting to see some lasting effects on the vortex to evolve in the models, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. These are the main NH views from the main models at +144 this morning: All fairly similar with evidence of disruption visible. And then here are the same models (minus the UKMO) at +240: . Do these images show continued disruption or signs of reorganisation? They don't seem to show the UK benefitting from the effects of the SSW at the 10 day range anyway. This could be any average winter with the Atlantic in charge and no sign of northern blocking to bring lasting wintry conditions to the UK. To my admittedly inexperienced eye, it looks like there will have to be some significant changes of direction from the models before we can have much confidence in an SSW driven winter.

Trying to look towards the end of the month, CFS (1 month) indicates a possible run of seven days of cold (-4 to -8) uppers from the 20th to the 27th: 850s: 500s: This might be the most likely period for a lasting cold spell to occur.

The best op run this morning for cold conditions is the GFS(p) 0z between 192h and 384h: . Although there are likely to be many changes in the actual outcome, this model has been consistently predicting the coldest evolutions over the last few days.

For those who may be having panic attacks because the ops are not showing snowpocalypse - yet - it might be worth comparing the charts from early January 2017 (remember we had an SSW last year too...) with today's output..... January 7th 2017 Today.... 500s. 850s. Jet stream: Now I won't pretend that they are an exact match, and 'anything can happen in the next half hour' as the saying goes, but to my eye there are many similarities - enough to suggest that we have every reason to keep the faith, because within one month the conditions last year looked like this: So, if you're thinking that the cold weather is all going to Eastern Europe, tune in again next week for a completely different story......

Morning all! Heard some bangers going off last night - was there some sort of party I missed? It's ironic that the 'hottest' thread on NW is the 'hunt for cold'.... and anyone looking for cold conditions in 2019 need look no further than the GFSP at +348: Granted that this is still 14 days away but you've got to start somewhere, right? I'm certain that we are going to see more and more wintery charts appearing in the short term and that we're all going to see snow before the end of January. Happy, Snowy, New Year to everyone.

Another dull heavily overcast start to the day after a run of similar days with so much moisture in the air everything stays damp all day. We visited Tenby and Saundersfoot yesterday where the sun did come out for part of the afternoon and then treated us to a lovely sunset. Such a beautiful stretch of the Welsh coastline in a country blessed with almost unbroken beauty along its entire coast. Tenby always looks lovely whatever the weather. It would be nice to see a little more wintery sunshine in the next few days but to be honest I prefer these calm but dull conditions to the violent winds we experienced earlier in December. No sign of proper winter weather in the next couple of weeks really, but the models are far from perfect and they can change their minds overnight sometimes so it's much too soon to rule out seeing any snow in January.....

In our 'hunt for cold' it's a bit disheartening to see that the entire UK currently enjoys the highest surface level temperatures anywhere in the world above the 50th parallel..... ...by some margin! We have the highest hill to climb of any country in the northern hemisphere when it comes to experiencing cold weather in the winter so it's no wonder we all get excited when there's any prospect of snow. Let's hope we all get what we wish for in the New Year!

If they're the names of the NW seven dwarves then it's bound to be Snow White everywhere! Here's hoping! At least we can expect some settled weather over the next few days into the New Year according to current output. That's got to be better than a raging Atlantic with storms, gales and pouring rain.

I knew that, John. Just my attempt at Christmas cracker humour. Ho Ho!? We all know the squirrel is safe! Happy Christmas to you and thanks for your own grounded and knowledgeable posts as ever.

I definitely should have gone to Specsavers.....

Had to have a quick look in here to see whether there was any white stuff about. I saw that you've managed to fill 94 pages in nine days! That's, erm, over 10 pages a day, right? I thought we must be in for snowmaggedon but no, it's mild mush as far the eye can see. What on earth is it going to be like in here if we get a blizzard showing in the models within the 96 hour range? FABULOUS! That's what!! Happy Christmas to everyone in here, especially the know-nothings like me who rely on the regulars for all our weather related news. Keep yer spirits up - we're bound to get some real winter weather before March and it'll all be worth waiting for when it arrives.

NO, NO, NO! Don't EAT the squirrel! Just give it some nuts! Happy Christmas Knocker and thanks from me too for the very varied and always useful information you provide in 'Knocker's Thread' (as I call it). Hope to see you carrying on the good work in 2019, whether we get any white stuff or not. It's all weather to me......

Darn it. To think I've wasted 60 years hoping that next Christmas will be snowy. I'll never be able to watch that film 'White Christmas' again - after all, it's just another day.... In the meantime, this thread still has the words 'hunt for cold' in the title, so I'm not feeling guilty for posting these charts from the CFS covering 28th Dec to 2nd Jan: It only goes to show that anything is possible even within the next ten days.

The wind has been very noisy here now for over an hour. As I was writing this post I heard a very violent gust tear across the roof – I hope nothing fell off! Before the post was written the internet went down but we still have power – so far. At least the rain has stopped but I still don’t fancy going outside yet. There are things banging about outside but they’ll have to wait until morning before I go and investigate…. I don’t have an anemometer but someone in Milford Haven has recorded a maximum gust to date of 134kph and that’s pretty much at sea level so there must be even stronger gusts at higher elevations. BBC says 600 homes without power now in south Wales. Come on Deirdre, that's enough. You’ve had your fun, now clear off…… Internet back now so I can post again!

The wind has been very noisy here now for over an hour. As I was writing this post I heard a very violent gust tear across the roof – I hope nothing fell off! Before the post was written the internet went down but we still have power – so far. At least the rain has stopped but I still don’t fancy going outside yet. There are things banging about outside but they’ll have to wait until morning before I go and investigate…. I don’t have an anemometer but someone in Milford Haven has recorded a maximum gust to date of 134kph and that’s pretty much at sea level so there must be even stronger gusts at higher elevations. BBC says 600 homes without power now in south Wales. Come on Deirdre, that's enough. You’ve had your fun, now clear off…… Internet back now so I can post again!

Utterly horrible weather for Christmas markets. Tbh when the weather's like this there's only one place to go.... ....Cribbs Causeway! Get there early if you want a covered parking space!

Eight hours of strong winds to move across the UK from 5:00pm tonight as predicted by the ICON: I would not want to be on a boat or an oil rig in the North Sea tonight looking at the above. My thoughts go out to anyone who has to endure these conditions at sea.

Eight hours of strong winds for Wales from 5:00pm today: ...according to the ICON. A day for staying indoors, I think!

Gales and rain here this morning - but not quite as stormy as I expected. Maybe we'll see higher wind speeds overnight tonight but after that I hope things will calm down a bit! Many have reported having snow in other parts of the country but sadly nothing here - we've just got cold, wet and windy rubbish!.

What a great cold, possibly snowy four day Christmas sequence this is from the GFS Para this morning: Yes, it's on its own, and Yes, it almost certainly will not happen, but it cheers me up just to think it's possible and I can't stop watching it!

If you want to see snow anywhere other than mountain tops over the weekend, head North and East according to the ICON: Unless we see some significant changes in the next few days we're unlikely to see any more until after Christmas now.