Sky Full

The old CFS sure does move along doesn't it? Was downloaded immediately before posting it but I guess it updated just to trick me! Anyway, no point in me worrying about it - I only showed it for a laugh really. Hopefully we can be more confident about the June weather in the immediate offing as we could do with losing the wind and clouds in this neck of the woods! Might make 20c or even 21c in Pembrokeshire or perhaps we can get a waft of that properly hot air from the SE if we're really lucky!

I saw this on the CFS - Azores high running rampant on the 1st July .... ...and I thought 'what's this going to do to the shares in air conditioning installers and repairers this summer?' But if you thought you might get in at the bottom of the market, you're too late! Coz I already bought 'em all!

Temperatures at 2m on the 17/06 at 1400h according to the GFS 0Z ensemble set: Not bad at all. Would this qualify as 'flaming June', even if it doesn't quite make it to 'scorchio' ..... Whatever. It'll do nicely for me, thank you.

I am very much liking the way the models seem to be in general agreement with their predictions for mid-June: GFS 12Z: ECM: GEM: Dont know what UKMO might have up its sleeve because they won't let us see that far ahead! If the patterns still look like this in a few days time we would be very close to a warm settled spell of proper summer weather. I wonder if the current unusual degree of consensus between the models means that these predictions are pretty much in the bag? I have to say that a change from the current windy, wet, showery, quite cold (and did I say very windy) weather will be exceedingly welcome in these parts.

Only got to wait until the 14th June according to the GFS..... "Here comes Summer...." ...but will it still be there in 10 days time??

Great pics those. I love the interaction between clouds and mountains. I don't suppose the weather will get any better than today throughout the rest of the summer. Strong unbroken sunshine and the temperature peaking at 28C. I doubt this will be repeated very soon. A quite strong, gusty and at times annoying breeze all day, though, continuing as I write this - probably more to do with the exposed position than anything else and lower down in the valley they may not have felt it at all....

Grey and drizzly start to the day with not much hope of any immediate change. This follows a cloudy and windy day yesterday with quite strong gusts at times - not at all similar to what was being reported widely and enjoyed elsewhere. This south-westerly derived weather pattern is not bringing anything summer-like (yet) and I wonder if this is because we are on the eastern edge of the Preseli Hills. Perhaps things will improve as the high pressure moves NE and the wind turns more southerly....

Rain - all day - not a break even for five minutes. Probably will be the same tomorrow. Was I really musing about possible water shortages recently? Talk about balancing out the averages - well, I didn't have to wait too long for that to come true....

I am sure I will forget this sequence of fine sunny days quickly enough when the weather starts to throw the usual sh*t at us in due course but for the time being this is the best start to May I can remember and long may it continue. Today was a beautiful day with unbroken warm sunshine, and a fresh north easterly breeze - enough to avoid overheating but not to spoil the early summer-like feel. What a lovely time to be in west Wales with almost everything bursting into bloom including hedgerows full of bluebells everywhere. Nature has a way of balancing all the good days with bad ones so I expect we will be in for some real downpours eventually - probably mid July.....

Was lucky enough to spend the entire afternoon at Stackpole including a walk around the Bosherston Lily Ponds. As if the scenery was not magnificent enough the weather was practically Meditteranean. Wall to wall sunshine with light air or no breeze at all, some distant white cumulus just to make the horizon interesting, and excellent visibility. Don't know what shade temperature would have been officially recorded, probably around 16c, but academic due to the strength of the sunshine. And they say tomorrow will be better than today.... Makes a nice change to be on the beneficial end of an easterly. Ignoring the Bank Holiday, this was a great start to May in this part of the world anyway.

The difference in winter precipitation totals between 2015/6 and 2016/7 for this area are quite significant. The closest stats I can find to my location show rainfall totals between 1st November 2015 and 27th February 2016 to be 334mm. For the same period 2016/2017 the total is just 148mm, or 186mm less in just four months. That's equivalent to a loss of around two months average rain in four. The low rainfall amounts have continued through March and April and even though we are in one of the statisically wettest areas in the country. Although drought conditions here are almost unheard of it could happen if these rainfall figures continue through May. I can already see lower than average silage yields and some very dry uplands in the summer. Not sure how the much drier south-east is fairing but I don't think they've had much rain either....

So this is the situation predicted by the ECM in six days time: and GFS agrees: Wintry looking charts or what! This would bring colder than average conditions for most, perhaps lasting until the end of the month, but snow would surely be unlikely away from the highest ground? Some low lying areas will no doubt continue to see some overnight frost, but hopefully the last of the season. We have avoided any frost locally over the last couple of days so I'm hoping we might get through the Spring now without any more.

I do not like the look of this suggestion from the GFS: Surely we don't want these conditions to verify at the end of April, just when a hard frost could do serious damage in the garden? The ECM tells a similar story though... I am hoping these predictions will be seriously moderated in the next few days....

GFS suggesting a promising start to next weekend.... Is this the perfect position for high pressure over the UK? ECM not too far away either.... Admittedly this situation deteriorates in the next few frames but we can only hope for more improvements as we get nearer to the time. For the time being I am making the most of the seemingly continuing absence of precipitation IMBY - it makes a pleasant change!

The Jetstream is here predicted to form a perfect arch to the north of the UK next week allowing a lovely high pressure to become established directly over us, hopefully bringing some more warm and settled Spring weather with only light winds to most places, and with minimal cloud cover It is to be hoped...... (but don't go there again )

You've posted some stunning images in the last couple of days, none better than those attached to this post! If we get a week or two of high pressure dominated, settled and warm weather in early April as depicted then I'm putting it at least partly down to your enthusiasm and optimism in influencing the models - how would they dare to disappoint you now?

ECM this morning says we will back under the influence of high pressure by the 4th April: GFS once again not so optimistic at this distance even by the 5th... but gets there or thereabouts by the next day: I am hoping that these conditions might last for a week or longer but we will have to patiently wait a few more days to find out....

The ECM this morning shows a very optimistic pattern for the 5th April with high pressure building strongly over the UK again: The GFS has a similar theme although not so bullish as the ECM with the high pressure centred over France and Spain: However, not a bad picture for early April. Let's hope it continues to improve in the next few days!

Oh those models! How they tease us with their chopping and changing. Compare the images above dated 21st March showing projections for the 31st March with the following from today..... GFS: ECM: Two days ago both models thought that our late March burst of Spring would still be there or thereabouts at the end of the month but now they both agree that the incoming Atlantic low will be more dominant and will in fact have put the high pressure right back in its box over the Azores. A wet and windy start to April is now their preferred plan - but not mine! Hopefully there is still time for all this to swap around but either way we will soon see which of the predictions was the right one......

Looking ahead to the end of the month the GFS has the Azores high pressure once again building across the UK and in later frames this becomes even more centred over us: Maintaining a more pessimistic view the ECM shows a more dominant Atlantic low pressure forcing the warmer weather further south into Iberia and bringing stronger, cooler, south westerlies towards the UK. This would not be the best start to April: As usual this could go either way and I will be watching with interest to see which model gets it right.....

Just wanted to put these two charts up this morning: Not a huge difference between them really. The first one is this mornings GFS for tomorrow (+24hr) which is unlikely to change much now. The second is the prediction made by the GFS on the 9th March for the same time tomorrow - that's 312 hours ahead. I don't think that's a bad result allowing for the details which could not possibly be predicted that far ahead. If we could expect this kind of accuracy even 50% of the time, think how that would transform forecasting!

Looking at the Arpege accumulated rainfall amounts over the next few days I would think the Welsh hills and mountains are going to remain very wet for a week or two yet! Those brain dead arsonists will need a lengthy spell of warm and dry weather or a flamethrower with a generous supply of petrol before they can do much damage for while, especially on the Beacons by the look of it....

Couldn't agree more with you, Frosty. Those images you posted from the ECM indicate a lovely settled spell of Spring-like weather which we could really do with here imby after a really damp and quite miserable March to date. The problem for me is that the GFS was the first to spot the imminent cold spell so does this mean it's more on the money with its different take on the End-Of-The-Month Show...?

All models now confident that high pressure will build in after the imminent colder weather this week. However, in 8 days time (+192) GFS shows the high pressure becoming flabby (good old meteorological term) and losing its identity, whilst the next low pressure digs in behind it.... eventually shoving the the remnants of the high off to the north east. Not a good start to April.... Meanwhile, the ECM sees the high holding its own at +192: and remaining strong enough to force the next low pressure system off to the north: Once again, we have a difference of opinion and the arguments start after only 8 days. Which model will get it right this time? Place your bets please.....

A brisk northerly airflow in place by Thursday next week: Followed by high pressure centrally positioned above the UK by Saturday. Settled but still on the cold side.