Sky Full

In addition to the promising pressure patterns being developed by the models in the new year outlook, it seems that the GFS also has the Jetstream finally trending to the south of the UK at the end of the run. If this comes off I believe we can genuinely hope for much colder air to be available in January. The actual shape of things will not be exactly like this in 10 days, of course, but at least the door to some much colder winter weather is being opened again. I would also like add my best wishes to everyone for a very Cherry Mistmas (oops - too early for the sherry) and a Happy New Thread to all in 2017. I am banking on the new thread being full of SNOW.

Yes, that does seem weird. Or has Old Met Man re-registered as Old MET Man? I don't see the point of copying such a distinctive monicker....

Just wait until decreasing salinity in the Arctic sea caused by fresh water runoff from the melting Greenland icecap reaches the point where the Gulf Stream shuts down. Then we'll see what winter at this latitude is like for everyone else and I'm not sure we're going to like it much. I will probably not be around long enough see it myself though.

Now that's what I call proper moan! Amen to that.

The lack of proper winter cold is always disappointing but I am trying not to complain too much because I remember last year. By now, Eglyswrw near Crymych was already 54 days into their nearly record breaking spell of continuous daily rainfall and that's only 7 miles from us. They still had another 30 days of daily rainfall to go. The water was continuously cascading down the lane outside my house and we had to use duck boards to get to the car. I don't want a repeat of that and I will take the current settled conditions even if that means no cold temperatures. The fact that we have had only one Atlantic storm so far must also be a great relief to the coastal towns and villages who were battered last winter but I feel concern for the Scottish isles who are going to be hit by Barbara this weekend.

Apologies - just showing my ignorance. However, it does seem to me that we are getting a lot of high pressure influence this winter which is usually what we are trying to find in the summer months?

Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara. . . . I would love to count how many times this pattern will develop between June and September in 2017 - about twice would be average!

As one of only two posters who commented in this way (unless other posts were removed) I think this message is directed at me. There were only four posts relating to the quoted post which doesn't really amount to 'clogging up' the forum but in the past I have seen many many posts publicly thanking the four or five outstanding members whose contribution is acknowledged to be head and shoulders above every one else. I therefore didn't think it was inappropriate to make such a comment publicly given the quality of what was posted but I will refrain from doing so in the future. Back to the models: Both the GEM and the GFS are promoting a potentially quite violent storm for northern Scotland, unfortunately on Christmas Day. In in the days that follow, happily, the same models both agree on a more settled period leading up to the New Year. No snow for almost everyone in this short term outlook but at least the prospect of further damaging storms is also unlikely In the reliable timeframe. It is still quite possible that we will see some really cold air from Eastern Europe drawn our way in early January which has often been the best period for our winters to really get going.

Sorry, ArHu3, no link. I just wanted to compare 10 day forecasts with reality and so saved the image from the 9th December. I imagine this exercise would show varying degrees of success depending on the time of year but I didnt think the GFS did too badly on this occasion. It might be different in another 10 days given the way the jetstream is getting more determined to target Western Europe.

Now I have a little aptitude test for you ..... "Which of the patterns in the grid matches the pattern in the image shown below it? You have two minutes to answer this question." Yes... It's a trick question. The answer is "None of them". The grid shows the GFS ensembles for the 19th December as modelled on the 9th December. One or two of the postage stamps have the current high and low pressure systems in roughly the right place but most of the other details of today's actual setup are misplaced, or missing altogether. However, It seems to me that the weather generated on the ground would not have been vastly different in reality if many of the possible solutions had actually occurred, so the GFS was, broadly speaking, barking up the right tree. This is how I imagine the 10 day model predictions should be seen - likely to be in the right ballpark with the correct teams playing but with no idea what the actual score will be on the night....

Dont worry, my long suffering weather fans, I am assured that January will be delivering the required goods and we don't have long to wait..... . It's foretold by the CFS so it MUST be right? erm, I have missed a few lessons in here over the last couple of terms so I might have got that wrong. I'll go and do some more homework....

Other than a general trend towards a NW / SE split between low and high pressure areas, these GFS ensembles at only 10 days out show a staggering range of possible solutions. The irony for me is that they are almost certainly ALL wrong and the actual result is highly unlikely to resemble any of them. I will keep this panel for 10 days and just for fun will compare the actual picture on the 19th December to see just how close the GFS managed to get in 24 attempts. If none of them are close then frankly we are on a hiding to nothing putting any faith at all in FI even when it's eye candy.....

Thanks for your extremely well written post, Tamara, to the point where I believe I could understand quite a bit of your reasoning! "but making such predictions is made ever tougher year on year against the alarming global warming trends" ..... and I am beginning to believe that global warming has already changed our weather for ever. What I cannot get my head round is why the UK seems always to be in a 'protected' zone of warmer air than almost any other landmass at the same latitude. Look at this short animation and see how the UK is currently modelled to avoid all the cooler upper air which seemingly is kept away by some invisible 'force field'. Is this the Gulf Stream? As long as we remain protected from the coldest upper air we are not likely to enjoy many Arctic interludes.

Despite the models lowering the chances of any seriously cold weather before Christmas I take considerable comfort from the lack of any Atlantic storms worth the name being predicted to directly target the UK by either the GFS or the ECM in the foreseeable future. In the absence of early ice and snow, I will take lower than average rainfall and no storm force winds over the next four weeks as a very acceptable alternative. I think the models would be seeing an increase in Atlantic storms by now if they were going to happen in December so perhaps we won't see people flooded out of their homes at Christmas for once.

Just got back from Haverfordwest and frankly should not have left the house today. All, and I mean all, the roads are flooding to some extent and the B4329 is almost impassible in places. Glad I made it back before dark though. Outside temperature is 0C but only cold rain and wet sleet falling. Don't really expect this to change overnight but if this rain keeps up there will be disruption to travel tonight.

I had a funny dream last night. Dreamt that we had a countrywide snow event before Christmas. And this morning it's there in the GFS! OK - a couple of weeks ahead and bound to change, but I can't remember seeing anything like this in the models last year, at any time? If the computers think this is possible, then that's good enough for me at this time of year....

Thanks Knocker - brilliant forecast which even I can understand (I think). You really should do this for a living!

I can't help myself. I keep looking at the GFS in deep FI and dreaming of the possibilities.... If only I could see beyond the end of this sequence after Dec 4th. This output will not materialise exactly like this, of course, but the point for me is that these northerly sourced incursions seem to be the current trend instead of the unending Atlantic we have endured for the last few years at this time of year. Based on current model output it is at last credible if not likely that we will soon be on the receiving end of some memorable winter weather.

Tornados on the west coast today! Looks like I missed the worst of it here - poor old Aber... There are times when I don't regret living away from the coast. There's another nasty looking low due at the weekend - I'd better tie that wheelbarrow down!

Although a little snow this early would be very welcome I don't like the look of the gales shown for Monday through to Tuesday morning. I hope this stormy low positions itself more to the south before it gets here.... The clouds have broken here in the last half hour but it's already getting very blustery. The last gust had the trees bending and leaves falling furiously. Still, we've got off lightly so far compared to previous autumns.....

Well I sure like the look of this, and getting more likely every day. Could do with moving a little further south and west is all I'm saying.... e

Despite the long range uncertainties of this sequence, I like the way very cold air is predicted to pool in Central Europe. This is another important factor which we need if we are to get a much colder than average winter - with this Siberian sourced air in place an easterly will be that much colder. There are so many different ways this could play out but at least it's looking possible to get a really amazing result from the present model output - we haven't been able to say that about the output at this time of year for many years.

Well, this is the Model Output Forum so I guess it's OK to look ahead and try to form some idea of what might be in store even though the models cant be expected to know exactly what the weather will do more than a few days ahead. When I look at this: r I can't help comparing it to this: which ultimately led to this: History tells us what happened next..... The current set up looks like the start of something special to me... Just saying....

Beautiful sunny morning here although this brisk northerly is an early taste of winter. Can see those shower clouds over to the west which apparently had a wintry mix overnight. Might go out for drive later to see if there is any evidence of it! For the time being the showers seem to be clipping the western fringe of Pembrokeshire but they might swing further east as the day goes on.

I remain a rank novice at model output interpretation compared with almost everyone else posting in this thread but I think I know enough to like these images from the GFS this morning. Colder air seems to be creeping our way slowly but surely and to get snow anywhere in the model output south of the Cairngorms at this time of year is really promising! Is it time to look at the odds for a white Christmas I wonder?