Sky Full

We had a lot of wasps around the house this summer but it was only the other day that I noticed them gathering around one end of the roof so I think we might have a nest up there. I'll wait for the cold to settle them down before I get up a ladder to investigate! I'm hoping the colder N/NWlies forecast for next week will blow away the cloud cover and leave us with crisp sunnier days for a while, and maybe the first frosts of winter by night? Looks like another mild and cloudy day here today, though. Guess I'll be washing the car then.

Personally, I can't wait for a proper cold spell, if it really is on the way! I hated the long very wet and very windy period we suffered from November last year - remember Eglwyswrw which nearly broke the record for the number of consecutive days with rain? That's only eight miles from me. We had water in the road running past the front door for - seemed like - weeks. A settled spell of cold weather with some proper frost (to finish off the wasps!) and a few inches of snow for a week around Christmas would be perfect! The hills round here look beautiful with snow. Unfortunately it's difficult to get meaningful snowfall so close to the Irish Sea but I live in hope.....

After the predicted low cloud and rain for most of Tuesday, the last two days have been an almost incredible flip from the forecast at the weekend, and we have enjoyed long spells of unbroken sunshine, light winds, and balmy (for September at least) temperatures peaking at around 23 C. A really memorable spell of summery weather at the beginning of Autumn, although I fear it will be our last this year.....

Thanks for this. An extremely interesting, comprehensive and informative analysis which is perfect for this thread. I for one found it very helpful and I am looking forward to more in future.

It looks good for the south and east of England next week but spare a thought for the west and south west where the weather could turn out to be very different. It looks dire at times with persistent showers and longer periods of rain together with only average temperatures. There might be some compensation in the form of storms but not by any means certain. Anyway, it's nice to know that many will enjoy a return to warm and sunny conditions but probably for the last time this year as more Atlantic influence is indicated to follow.

Cloudy and rather cool by the Preseli hills this morning with a hint of drizzle. Looked at the radar and decided south was best. Drove down to Pembrey sands and there it was wall to wall blue skies with very warm sunshine, light sea breeze and almost no clouds at all. We could see the cloud bank clearly to the north but it never moved all day. What a difference 30 miles makes in this part of the world. Moral of this story - don't live in the hills, live by the sea instead!

Pembrokeshire. 19 C, cloudy, light drizzle setting in - again. Wondering when I will need to put a jumper on. It's hard listening to folk complaining about 30 C and bright sunshine, but then I would probably complain too, if I was there and not here. That's the trouble with me - I'm never happy.....

A slightly optimistic 15.3 C for me, please. Here's hoping we get a late summer burst of warm weather before an arctic winter descends upon us.....

Thanks for this explanation - very interesting and it reminded me just how difficult it must be to try and forecast the weather through 18,000ft of atmosphere 24 hours ahead, never mind 8-10 days ahead! I do find it curious that that the formulae used by the model computers don't take historical averages into account though. It's difficult to comprehend how complicated the formulae must be that calculate global atmospheric conditions days in advance using physical data and thermodynamics.

You make a very good point - it IS the exceptional runs which get discussed but there are likely to be many unexceptional / average runs on each model run every day. I withdraw my critiscism of the models immediately!

Steady rain this morning turned to blustery, sometimes heavy, showers this afternoon. The rain has stopped for now but the wind is now steadily rising. I don't like this for the middle of August, thank you very much. If this is what August can deliver what can we expect in November?

Is it my imagination, or do the models have a tendency to regularly predict desirable seasonal weather (cold snowy spells in Winter, hot sunny spells in Summer etc), only to have to downgrade when the real weather turns out to be average, and sometimes the opposite, of what was predicted? It seems to me that actual spells of exceptional weather are mostly not picked up more than about three days ahead but they are wrongly predicted 6 to 10 days ahead with disappointing frequency. I would have expected the computer programs which power the models to suppress extremes and to favour 'average' conditions especially in the medium to longer range rather than continuing to throw up exceptional synoptics which then fail to come about, at least to the degree to which they are initially forecast. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a weather pessimist (at least I dont think so!) but there has been a lot of talk on here this summer of temperatures getting into the mid 30s at times, only encouraged by what the models were showing, but they simply haven't materialised. In fact, only Heathrow Airport has recorded three days above 30c this year, with only one day being the dismal record for almost anywhere else and these only in the south and south-east (unless someone can correct me here?). In fact, even temperatures above 25c have been notably rare this year but they have been regularly forecast on all the models. What this leads me to believe is that the chance of the weather turning 'hot' next week as currently predicted by the models is very much against the trend this year, but I hope to Murgatroyd I am wrong!

August 10th 2003 recorded hottest ever temperatures in many places - one or two above 38 C. I don't think the models are showing quite this level of heat but mid-30s could be possible if the low stalls to our west long enough.

What a difference a week makes. I said I mustn't grumble, but I can't help it. Sunday - washout. Monday - drizzle most of the morning, a few sunnier intervals in the afternoon. Tuesday - mostly a washout in heavy drizzle (despite radars showing no rain!). Today - drizzle this morning, then heavy cloud with no sight of the sun. It's warm enough but the garden really needs a few dry and sunny days to go with the wet ones...... Looks like we've got to endure another week of cloudy skies before there's any prospect of a summers day here again. Is this what global warming has done for us?

Yeah! Summer has arrived! Cloudless blue sky, 24c already, might make 29c later. That's what I call a change for the better. Shame it's only going to be a one day wonder......but mustn't grumble. Perhaps we'll get a rerun in early August.

Unbroken damp foggy conditions and drizzle on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with only a few hours of clear sky here yesterday. Misty conditions back this morning - is this really July? I can't wait to see the sun properly again so this heatwave had better deliver! It's a little brighter now so hopefully by mid morning it might look like a summers day......

Will the Jetstream ever get the UK out of its sights? The summer will never take off while we are under this constant pattern. I despair. Is there any reason why the Jetstream is not moving further south this year?

The jetstream is forecast to have the UK firmly in its sights for at least the next 7-10 days so not likely to be any lengthy settled, calm periods until the second week of July perhaps. Could change, of course, but we need the jet to move north!

The skies here have looked positively Mediterranean over the last three days but temperatures have been kept in check by the N / NE wind unless you are sheltered. We recorded 20 C yesterday and I can't help feeling slightly puzzled that all the news is about rain in the south-east. Today could be an even day looking at the forecast. Might even have to get the watering can out - now where did I leave it...?

Heard some distant rumbles of thunder to the north just now - probably beyond Cardigan - is anyone directly under this storm right now?

All we've got here is strong wind/gales, some violent gusts which are hammering the daffs, and fast moving heavy looking shower clouds moving inland. Not seen one proper flake of snow all winter and doesn't look like we'll get any this week either. Given up on this winter - just want the spring to get into gear now really. Hope some of you get a decent covering this week - that would be some consolation.

Comparing all four main models at +144 I can see two (ECM & UKMO) implying a possible incursion of PM air from the N/NW if the Atlantic ridge strengthens as modelled, and two (GFS & GEM) implying a continuation of the current Atlantic driven windy and wet conditions. Unfortunately this is not conclusive enough to start placing bets on snow next week and I am also wary of any colder conditions being driven further East by the time they materialise leading to a lovely wintry spell, but in western Europe. All we will end up with is more wind, more rain and disappointment - again. Please tell me I am wrong?

Try: www.wunderground.com Insert your location and go to 'History' where you can select weather data weekly, monthly or from and to any dates ('custom'). The nearest data they have to Carmarthen is Pembrey Sands.

We all know that the models don't control the weather - they just try to predict solutions based on current conditions. I imagine that the computer programs calculating these solutions mainly rely on historical data and they will tend to prefer solutions that favour average conditions. They are, therefore, very unlikely to predict the unpredictable and yet our weather is almost totally unpredictable accurately beyond 120 hours It is still entirely possible that January could turn very cold, and this could happen within even a 72 hour period, so let's all keep looking for the signs - the models will show them eventually! Unfortunately there is nothing showing up yet though and things are not changing very quickly. This LP system takes six days to pass us by..... 6th January.... 12th January....

"sorry the weather models made a complete fool even out of me - and it's not looking too good for the rest of winter either - it'll take a massive change in jet stream set up and general set up for this to take a u turn now" Never mind Andy - Just goes to prove that none of the models can be relied upon much beyond six days out . 10 to 14 days ahead they really have no idea at all - any model which occasionally proves reasonably accurate at that time distance is pure chance and it happens very rarely anyway. In my opinion, any weather the models predict beyond 8 days should be ignored - you're better off reading tea leaves - but the models are worth consulting for a three to five day forecast or maybe for general trends. How can we place any faith in computer programs which swing wildly from one extreme to the other even in a 24 Hour period? Just wait and see - as soon as the North Sea cools down to its minimum winter temperature after mid January, the conditions will be right for colder weather in the UK and snow to fall more widely. The changes in the atmosphere needed for widespread snow have occurred in very short time frames in the past and will do so again in the future. Not that I am making predictions, mind....