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Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights next week could bring widespread frosts according to the GFS this morning: Gardeners beware -

As Frosty has pointed out the GFS eventually wants to bring in much more Spring like conditions thanks to a UK centred high pressure. This is 15 days away so plenty of time for modification if not total backtracking but I am hoping that the GFS is on to something here!

Nor me! Already fed up with the murky damp conditions we have had here for over a week. Nothing I can find in the charts to suggest anything truly Spring like in the next two weeks - the best I can find is offered by the GEM: Even this is transitory and doesn't lead to anything warm and dry but it is still early I suppose - we still have April and May to go!

Compare the above with the UKMO predictions: +96h: +120h: +144h: Looks like we could end March with high pressure influence but if it's too far to the north the winds will be from the NE or even E so not necessarily warming up yet...

The GFS has watered down the severity of its predictions for next week somewhat, but in my view the ECM has moved nearer to the GFS so there has been a bit of give on both sides: GFS +96h: ECM +96h: GFS +120h: ECM +120h: So not much, if any, snow away from high ground in the north but definitely colder for a time next week before the Azores high can drag some warmer Atlantic sourced air back across the UK.

We know the ECM has other ideas but the UKMO and GEM seem to be on the fence, if not a little in support of the GFS... UKMO at +120: GEM at +132: Could still go either way!!

Not not showing any signs of backing down, the GFS is proposing a 12 hour period of potentially widespread snowy conditions in under six days from now.... . What would it be like in here if this was a month earlier....

I find it fascinating to watch the way the GFS and ECM are competing to model the developing pressure patterns next week. This morning the GFS has held on to its view that a depression will form right over the UK bringing a late March cold snap to all areas: GFS +120: GFS +132: GFS +144: After initially agreeing with this pattern, the ECM has now decided that the low pressure will position itself a little further north allowing the Azores high to recover more strongly: ECM +120: ECM +144: Which of these two patterns will verify? It seems that a short spell of colder conditions is unavoidable next week but the ECM this morning offers the quickest route to warmer more settled conditions by the end of the month..... ..............

Interestingly, 7 days after this post the GFS is still showing the same low pressure dominating on the 22 March, now only 7 days away, bringing cold conditions to all... The ECM is now in broad agreement with this prediction: If these conditions verify, it means that the GFS accurately predicted a change to colder conditions 14 days ahead! In that case, I will have to apologise for my earlier scepticism... Only by the 26th March does the ECM see things settle down and bring warmer weather across the UK: GFS not so quick to build the Azores high back across us, though: Hopefully warmer and more benign conditions in place by the end of March but I can't help wondering how much this situation could change within 10 days.....

GFS and ECM now broadly in agreement predicting low pressure over the UK at +168 (March 22) bringing colder conditions for all: ECM: GFS: Yesterday the GFS was suggesting that the Azores high would be more dominant but backtracking today. Will it swing the other way again by tomorrow?? Perhaps March will have a kick in its tail after all....

Your ability to explain the models in this way is a great help to those like me who are still learning to interpret the output. To my own inexperienced eye, though, the ECM looks more likely to get it right unfortunately. I will be happy if the Azores high is able to establish itself more in our area by the end of the month to give Spring a kick up the xxxx in my part of the world. It's been far too damp and cloudy up to now.

GFS shows an improving situation at +192 with high pressure building towards the UK: ECM has very different ideas though: Just 8 days away and yet quite a contrast between the two models. Which one to believe? Perhaps they are both wrong - seems the most likely to me!

GFS 12z still trying to slow down the new growth in my garden by bringing on a cold snap in two weeks time. Luckily the chances of this prediction verifying even close to this are probably less than 10% and ironically the very fact that the GFS says it could happen almost certainly rule it out completely, based on the disappointing degree of inaccuracy at this time scale shown during the last three months. Can't be too harsh, though, as it's pretty much impossible to forecast the weather in this country beyond five days, isn't it?

How far ahead does FI start these days? GFS at +120 seems reasonably promising with high pressure building in: At +144 it's still looking quite settled even if sunshine is in short supply: But at +240 things are predicted to go downhill... But perhaps this is pure fantasy and will not materialise...... By this time of the month I would prefer to see temperatures rising and sunshine levels improving so I'm hoping that the GFS has a rethink about this particular prediction.....

Just spent ten minutes deleting some really lovely snow laden charts taken from various models from November through to the end of January. What a pity - so much promise but so little delivery. Still, the way I see it is that we have had no farms cut off by rising floodwaters, no towns and city centres flooded for days by overtopping rivers, no bridges washed away, no coastal rail lines cut by storm surges and very few power outages. From this perspective the winter has been memorable for me, at least. And all is not yet lost by a long way. The CFS for one is showing that the cold could continue right through to the end of February. These images are only 14 days away.... Now this is way out beyond FI even so little chance of accuracy but the CFS is a serious computer model so these predictions are at least possible, and may even be more likely than not. All to play for then in the second half of February? I'm not giving up yet.

GFS 06z now showing a cold easterly setting in as early as +48hrs and continuing almost unbroken from the same cold direction until the 18th - well into FI. Getting even colder towards the middle of the month.... This is, I believe, what is commonly referred to as 'getting the cold in'. Whatever is being modelled today, it Is practically a certainty that most of the U.K. will see snow in some form or another over the next 2 weeks. Can we begin to hope that something like the situation shown on the 17th February will bring some significant snow to many places?

ECM and GFS look broadly similar at +168hrs.... After that, the CFS suggests that the cold conditions to be sustained for more than a week at least.... I know how little reliance can be placed on these images but it does show what could happen and we are in the coldest phase of winter so I think they are worth posting? I am intrigued to see that cold pool in mid-Europe being drawn right over the top of us..... The next few days will be very interesting as this could be the start of a very memorable winter spell during which almost all of the U.K might see some notable snow.

I present the GEM, ECM, and GFS at +144 hrs as currently showing: All looking to be in agreement and quite promising especially when taking into account the later frames. The direction of the airflow could at last bring some interest for my location. However, havnt we been here several times before already this winter? This is still SIX DAYS away. Isn't it more likely that the whole set-up will have shifted about 1000 miles east of the position shown by the time we get to +144 hrs? Which leaves the high pressure back over the UK and no N or NW but a gentle circular rotation which has been the form horse pretty much since the beginning of December. I would love to be wrong but I am trying to second guess the models which this year seem bent on giving us plenty to talk about then whipping it away again with just a few days to go.....

Just popped out for the day and came home to find....a new thread and 14 new pages of model discussion. I thought, were they all just waiting for me to leave the room before having a proper chat? That's a bit hurtful. And then I saw this: j and this: And I thought maybe that's the reason.... But then I saw this: and this and I had to go and have strong drink. So I now know what the fuss is all about but do you have any idea how long it's going to take me to read all those new pages? I'll be up half the night and I hope you're all satisfied.

Very dull this morning - cold with low cloud and almost no movement in the air. Quite a contrast from yesterday but at least it's dry and no fog! Looks like we'll keep these conditions until Sunday when the cold front moves through and introduces a brief northerly. Sadly any chance of snow now pushed well into the second week of January but with any luck this might change within the next few days.

Absolutely stunning day today. Sparkling sunshine all day, max 7C, min 3C, slight iciness on the roads where the sun hasn't reached this morning. If it stayed like this until March I wouldn't complain.

We can now be confident of seeing a spell of colder but still quite settled weather from News Years day as shown by the GFS: and for anyone who feels disappointed that this is not quite as severe or long lasting as the models were predicting a week ago, take a look at what was awaiting us at this time last year..... Personally, I would take the current conditions over those we were suffering last January - we are actually very lucky this year to have avoided all those Atlantic storms (although I suppose there's still time....!).

Well the models are all in general agreement for a cold interlude at +144 and at least that's almost in the reliable frame? ECM: GFS: GEM: UKMO: Now I have heard it said that you need to get the cold in first before anything else can happen. Don't know where I read that, as it happens, but it makes sense to me.....

These charts looked just about perfect to round off a happy day..... . . Chances of them verifying? Well, who cares really - they just gave me the chance of some sweet dreams. Same to all of you.....

Crikey! Looks like Turkey's going into the freezer. We only just defrosted ours.....