Sky Full

That new stream past my front door is back with a vengeance today and looks like becoming a permanent feature. Perhaps I should try to name it..... Any suggestions? On on second thoughts, perhaps I should improve the drainage in the lane before Noah turns up....

Well, looks like we can expect three to five days of pretty much non stop, at times heavy, rain with strong winds as an accompaniment. Not Christmas shopping weather then. I dont relish the thought of tramping around Carmarthen in the rain but at least the car parking is under cover! We could certainly do with a few dry days to dry us out after Christmas but the trend is not hopeful......

Well, you were right on the button there - hasn't stopped here for about six hours now and very heavy, too. Looks like we might get some respite tomorrow - I hope so because there is now a small stream rushing past my front door which is definitely not supposed to be there. Would become a real problem if the rainfall increases in intensity. If this had been snow it would have been about two foot deep by now! Maybe we can save that for Christmas though......

I can handle the wind and gales, fog and frost don't bother me, bring on the cold and snow, but when is this relentless RAIN going to stop? I don't think we have had one completely dry day here for three weeks now and I could really do with one sunny day to dry things out a bit. Anyone care to predict when we can hope for a change to something a little drier? (Please don't say March.....).

High pressure almost perfectly stationed over the UK on this image ... and then losing identity after 24 hours leading to very quiet conditions indeed... ...but precipitation showing showery activity... Can anyone help me to understand what is causing the showery activity in this extremely settled situation? Sorry if this is not the correct thread but I am trying to interpret the models....😕

Very well said. Everyone on here looks for model output which predicts their favourite weather - this is only natural - and nobody should have a go at anyone who gets it wrong as a result (which is everyone). We should all be grateful for the regular contributors to this forum who do their best to interpret the models scientifically and we should try to learn from any mistakes - it might lead to more accurate forecasts in the future. Happy New Year to everyone and may 2015 turn into a snowfest for all.

There doesn't seem much of interest in the models to talk about so to keep on topic I have a question to which I hope someone can provide an answer. Why was it felt necessary to introduce the GFSp when they already had the GFS? If they had discovered a better algorithm or written some improved code for their model, why not simply upgrade the existing one? In my admittedly very inexperienced view, there appears to be little similarity between the two GFS models as their forecasts diverge very quickly after a couple of days. Does this indicate a significant difference in their programming or is this because the weather has such an infinite number of variables that even the same computer program can show many different solutions from exactly the same starting point?

Although I enjoy snow as much as anyone (well, perhaps not everyone, Rudolph), I think all those chasing an Arctic bomb just have to face facts - we live in a temperate country and our weather is largely influenced by a huge warmish ocean. The chances of long cold spells of weather are really quite remote and likely to be few and far between. The occurrence of really disruptive cold weather in the past is rare and even when it happens we rarely get more than 48 hours reliable notice from the models. I am always disappointed when winter does not deliver but I console myself in the knowledge that a mild winter helps our struggling wildlife to survive, allows our gardens to grow beautiful tropical plants which would not normally survive this far north, and avoids expensive, often lethal, freeze-ups which other, continental, countries have to endure. Having said all that, hang on to the knowledge that January and February are the most likely months for snow to be widespread, after the North Sea has reached its lowest annual temperature, and in this respect we have nine more weeks to go. The models have absolutely no idea what might happen in this timeframe so I will keep studying the 48-72 hours ahead period for accurate information, and 72 - 384 hours ahead for laughs..... Happy New Year to everyone on this forum and I hope you all get the weather you wish for....

I am not liking these charts from the GEM for the 21st - that's only 10 days off and I interpret them as showing much cooler conditions as the low over Scandinavia draws chilly air in from the north...... Have I got this right?

Here we see the prospect of lovely dry, mild, Spring like weather, ideal for wildlife including nesting birds and emerging butterflies, perfect for crops to establish and gardens to begin flowering. Why would we want anything else at this time of year, regardless of how disappointing the Winter has been..... Give me warm Spring sunshine - I don't want snow in March AGAIN to delay the decent weather from arriving. SF

Erm.... I think I would put up with another month of torrential rain if it meant we could win the World Cup. That's not going to happen, though. Is it?

For what it's worth, I just want to forget about the no-show winter of 2013/4 now and hope we get a long, warm and dry spring. We have enough water in the ground to supply this country even if it doesn't rain for six months so let's have a few weeks of sunny growing conditions and let the ground dry out a bit. I missed the snow as much as anyone but this is not the time to be hoping for an arctic blast - we want the crops to recover, animals to feed outside again, and people to be cheered up by warm winds and sun. Surely we now want the birds to be singing, the trees to get their leaves back and all the daffs out by the end of the month? Let's box up this winter and bury it!

For me that was the worst night so far this winter - reminded me of October 1987. Although not as violent as 1987 the wind was extremely powerful, rattling the roof and windows and hammering the trees surrounding us. Woken up several times but thankfully this morning no real damage except bits of fencing etc. there must be some trees down locally though. I am full of sympathy for those living on the coast and for once I am grateful that we live about as far from the sea as it is possible to get.....

I think we are a bit of a strange bunch, really. The UK weather is a subject of national interest and most people have a something to say about the weather almost every day, but the vast majority of the posters on this site are, not to beat about the bush, obsessed with the weather and what it can deliver. Doesn't matter if we prefer cold, mild, hot, dry, wet, windy or any combination, we all like to see dramatic weather and extremes of our preferred kind. Many spend an amazing amount of time poring over the charts (especially me!) trying to forecast the next spell of dramatic weather and look forward with baited breath to see the result of a heavy snowstorm (even better if accompanied by drifting), or a violent thunderstorm, or extreme heat waves - anything that could break records in fact. But when those events finally develop for real bringing hardship for many, costing the country millions, putting lives of people and animals at risk, I'll bet there isn't one person who posts on this site who does not wish the effects could be less severe, the damage avoided and the loss of life prevented. So while we all love to see dramatic weather we have to weigh the excitement of seeing it and experiencing it against the awful effects it can have which nobody can possibly derive any pleasure from. It's a paradox. Also, I quite possibly don't know what the **** I am talking about and maybe should have left the pub earlier......

I am only a keen amateur but even I think I have a grasp of the potential in the models for next week. But I am trying to understand how things might develop for the better (colder) or worse (warmer....) and looking at this chart from the GEM it appears to me that there are two air masses both pointed towards the UK - one to the NW (A) and one to NE (B). 'B' seems to have the most potential for cold and wintry conditions but would 'A' return us to a south-westerly, warmer air-flow? Which of these two air masses is likely to reach us first? If my understanding is truly wide of the mark then please feel free to have a good laugh at my expense but replies from the experienced posters will help me avoid making the same mistakes again....! I hope this is the correct thread - I tried to keep it model related?

These similar looking charts all seem to indicate a change to colder conditions. Does similarity imply more accuracy perhaps? They all bring about an easterly or south easterly off the continent..... GFS. 8 days out: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0 ECM 8 days out: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php GEM 8 days out: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0 JMA 7 days out: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php Surely they can't all be wrong, can they? Or maybe I'm wrong - wouldn't be the first or even the fifty-first time.....but you have to keep hoping don't you!

This chart could make you SCREAM!

All the main models are in agreement regarding a deep low forecast to arrive next Saturday - how often do the charts have this much similarity at +144? Does this mean it is a certainty? We have been regularly battered by the Atlantic this December and we are definitely overdue for some easterlies from the continent - January remains the favourite for this IMHO. Anyway, must get outside and tie the shed down before our Christmas storm arrives.... Have a great Christmas everyone!

Where's my arrows? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131217/12/ecm500.216.png Could that really happen? Finally.... I have worked out how to post a chart! SF

I have seen many charts like these, showing 'dart board' lows, dismissed by experienced posters as being unlikely to verify, and even as being almost impossible in terms of the depth of the low pressures depicted. I am still unable to understand why those who program the models should have set parameters which are outside the limits of probability - surely the models should err on the side of caution and then ramp up their predictions as the indications of extreme weather become more certain nearer to the actual event? What seems to happen is the reverse - they regularly predict Armageddon at 192+ only to back off rapidly at the last possible moment. If I didn't know better I would have to guess that the models are deliberately programmed to continuously get our hopes up and then pull the rug out. Anyway, if either of these scenarios occurs I won't be walking the dogs that day..... Looks to me like strong winds and rain almost everywhere throughout the Christmas period.

I am very hesitant to make any predictions in the company of so many far more experienced posters but the models are showing such interesting developments I cant help but try and interpret them, and we all have to start somewhere, dont we? Christmas week looks full of the promise for change to colder conditions but my money's on the first week of January before most of lowland UK sees any snow. There - I've said it; now I have to wait for the egg to hit the fizzog (not a meteorological term, that). Quite stressful, this model watching. Must have another coffee now....

Despite the present models and the approaching winter solstice we should take comfort from the fact that the ground continues to lose heat way into January and the sea does not begin to warm until March - I am far less qualified to comment than most of the regular posters here but our best chance of real cold or even severe winter weather will surely always be in mid to late January and February. This has usually been the case in past years and it is far too early to tell from present models what will happen that far out, so there is still every chance we could all be building snowmen in 2014. There is even now the vague hint of an outside chance of real cold reaching us in the far FI reaches of the GFS - and It would not surprise me to find snow on the ground in many parts of the UK by January 1st.

Is it possible to cut and post charts using an iPad? I can 'select' an image but even when working on the same page it doesn't seem able to 'paste' it. I am not too expert with IT and this may be a very stupid question....

What would it take to reverse the current set up, giving us a settled HP to the north east over Scandiniavia and LP systems swinging by to the south of us? Wouldnt that encourage an easterly flow of warm continental air to keep our temperatures up until it was really time for the serious cold stuff again? As long as the Azores high is unchallenged will we get increasingly cold N or NW air over us, coz I'm not ready to fire up the boiler yet!

Thanks for taking the time to provide such a detailed response. If ever there could a short answer to my question, that would be it! I am beginning to understand the totally interconnected nature of all the various components of the atmosphere and that the jetstream is just one of these, albeit quite an important player and one of the tools used in forecasting. It just brings home how difficult it is to predict the workings of this chaotic system sufficiently accurately to avoid criticsism. I will continue to read your posts with great interest and read up on this some more.