Sky Full

John. I always try to read your posts but don't think about 'liking' them - doesn't mean I don't like em though! IMO I don't think anyone makes more accurate or more informative contributions than you and your post from June 27 is evidence of this. Did anyone else in June forecast the present settled spell, moving slowly north, which exactly came to pass? That the conditions also brought about higher than average temperatures for 10 days could not possibly be foreseen that far ahead. I am interested in the relationship between the jet stream at 30000 ft and weather conditions on the ground because the move away from settled heat is coinciding with the jet stream moving south of the uk again. Many are interpreting current models as introducing a period of thunderstorms and rain early next week - is the jet stream an engine of this change or just another symptom? Or is there somewhere I could find out more on this subject? SF

I can't post any thumbnails but the jetstream forecast for July 25 seems to indicate a strong blast of Iberian or even Saharan air straight towards the UK - would this bring record temps?

It's a funny thing about the weather - when it's doing the same thing for long enough we all want it to change eventually, especially if it gets uncomfortable or even dangerous. The summer weather we are enjoying now is great but it only needs to crank up another couple of degrees to become oppressive and unpleasant - I am already finding it difficult to sleep at night. After another 10 days of this I expect most on this site will be hoping to see a reduction in the intensity of the heat although its also fascinating to watch records fall...... If we only had a more reliable source of drinking water so we could get through long hot dry periods without a water shortage....

No rain here now for over a week, no rain in the models for the foreseeable future except the odd shower in the east if we are lucky - temperatures in the higher than average range in many parts - any bets when drought conditions will announced?

I am still reading and learning from the comments posted by far more knowledgeable members than me but the recent posts mentioning the Jetstream got me wondering if this is the single most important factor in determining the shape of our weather? The jet has been stuck over us, or south of us, for a long time and only briefly sweeps north allowing more southerly climatic influences to come our way. The jet forecast for Saturday appears to me to show the low pressure system being dragged down over the UK whilst more benign weather is being forced away from us. Am I drawing the right conclusion from this chart? If so, could we expect more southerly, continental weather to come our way if the jet was to move above the 60th parallel, for example? If I am way off the mark here, just ignore me!

Those GFS thumbnails you posted look great to me! I will staying in a cottage in South Wales from Friday so the improving temperatures and settled, calm condtions are just what the doctor ordered! I continue to be amazed how the models can sometimes be so accurate out to 120h - 144h and yet at other times - now for example - the predicted conditions could change quite significantly even within the next 96 hours. That's what makes model watching so fascinating, I suppose, but so difficult to interprate (for me, anyway....!)

6.30 am Brize Norton: Rain overnight. Currently heavy overcast, no rain, but strong se breeze.

Thanks for the welcome - that's what I like about this forum. Thanks to Snowking, Yarmy and CardiffStorm for your replies - I guess we would lose the art (and fun) of interpretation and forecasting if the models became too accurate! I will do my best to keep any future posts tight to the subject. SF

I have been encouraged to join this forum for the first time having followed the comments and opinions of all the contributors with avid interest for months. I thought I knew a thing or two about the weather (as an amateur enthusiast, not a professional) but have come to realise that I still have much to learn. On behalf of all the other silent 'students' of our weather on this excellent site I want to take this chance to thank all the regular posters on this forum who go to such lengths to try and understand and explain the infinite variations of the models we love to watch. My hopefully relevant question about the models is this: we clearly still have a long way to go before any of the models can be relied upon much beyond 96 to perhaps 120 - sometimes they are near enough but more often than not, much rapid correction is necessary between 48 and 96. Can anyone say what would be needed to improve this reliability? Do we need even more powerful computers, or do we need more historical and current data to feed into them, or both. In the opinion of those with the longest experience of watching the output, have the models generally improved their reliability over the last ten years, say? I apologise if this is considered way off topic but it seems to me that this forum is where a beginner can get the best information....