phil nw.

Right then now locking this,New thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81842-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-151114/ to carry on discussion.

A new thread then to continue discussion on the overnight models and ready for the evening outputs. We are currently in a slow moving pattern with the 2 main features on this side of the Hemisphere being the SE orientated Atlantic trough and the heights to our east. Compare today with T96hrs and we can see little change which keeps us on the milder side of things with occasional mainly light rain from relatively shallow systems off the Atlantic. Looking further on, today's runs have trended towards enforcing the block to our east and keeping the Atlantic at bay. Compare yesterdays ens ht anomalies with today's for the same time. so little sign of an end to this en pass until month end.Just an indication of increased blocking for Europe. Frustrating for cold seekers as we continue with this stand off but at least there are signs of drier weather under some rise in pressure for the UK later on. Just a reminder to please continue to post only views on the model charts and outputs in here so that we can all keep this thread informative for all our members and readers. OK on we go.

I think it's a good time for a new thread before the later model runs. Anyone wishing to post just hold on for a a few minutes while i open a new one. Cheers.

A weaker Atlantic pattern seems the outlook for the next week with low pressure close by being held back by the stubborn high over S,Scandinavia. The fax for Tuesday shows the expected picture by then A slow moving set up and frustrating in many ways as we know the weaker vortex and continuing wave action holds promise but not yet. The block ensures a mild feed for much of W.Europe and the UK for a while yet until we have a change in the wave pattern.

A few posts have been removed- no model discussion. Any references to historical weather are for other threads please. Let's stick to the here and now in this thread. Cheers all.

This came to mind SK. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-20-0-0.png and we all know what followed. Not sure we are primed for quite that yet-are we?

A bit of a delay in bringing that Canadian trough se into the Atlantic around T144hrs. UKMO especially wants to build a mid latitude high somewhere around UK/W.Europe,something i was pondering last night after seeing the 12z ECM op. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17. Something a bit more palatable than a resurgent Atlantic anyway.

Yes that's something we haven't seen a lot of in recent years and it would be a nice change.I do like crisp frosty weather with a bit of weak Winter sun. Current outlook is more of the same unfortunately.Too much rain is bad enough but the low light levels that sometimes go with the heavy cloud at this time of year makes it depressing.

Glancing through the ens outputs this morning and 2 main features still show up to day 10 and they are the Atlantic trough and those Scandinavian heights, although somewhat reduced. A look at the NAEFs and ECM at t240 hrs do show a similar picture. as the Alaskan ridge starts to fail around day 6 the jet flow starts to flatten out and the downstream Canadian trough loses it's sharpness.This starts to spill eastwards into the Atlantic and this injection of cold upper air adds to the Atlantic vigour. This gear change can be seen if we look at the difference between the t144 and t168hrs on the ECM and onwards as the surge comes through. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111400/ECH1-144.GIF?14-12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111400/ECH1-168.GIF?14-12 with the remaining heights to our NE this simply re-enforces the nearby trough angle which continues to drive SE near the UK bringing continuation of the unsettled and rather mild outlook. It seems much of W.Europe and indeed parts of Scandinavia remain rather mild into week 2. Some 2m temp.ens graphs for various locations show this. the result of being on the wrong side of the block, such as it is. It's difficult to see any change up to month end in the 500hPa pattern. The one positive as we look towards the start of Winter though are the +ve height anomalies across the Polar region which indicate the weakened state of the vortex. At the moment those heights are not strong enough to push the cold air far enough into mid-latitudes on our side of the hemisphere until we see renewed pressure from wave breaking. Bearing mind it's only mid November then we still have all Winter to look for this.

Later GFS frames suggesting wave 1 vortex displacement towards the Atlantic side. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141113/12/360/npst30.png It looks like we have a period of westerlies to get through before any further wave 2 activity could change things.

Well all the models continue to show stubborn ridging towards Scandinavia,the ECM op being,as seems usual these days,the most keen. Unfortunately for us it doesn't,change our Atlantic outlook with lows becoming slow moving near the UK keeping us pretty wet and changeable and mainly on the mild side. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0 Looking at today's runs a proper Easterly looks a real outsider even from the ECM where the best we could see from that could be a mid latitude high as it warms out the UK trough. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 With the main bulk of the PV so close to our nw it does look like this period of Atlantic weather goes on for a while yet.

Yes elevation is the key if looking for snow in polar maritime air behind a bog standard low. Prospects of that maybe further on as the Atlantic fires up with some quite cool air coming across from the west. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1&runpara=1&carte=1 It does like we are going to see some more bands of rain in the coming week. With the block to the east only slowly declining more of the current conditions look likely as lows become slow moving nearby.

Not warm enough for others i would't have thought Purga. 2M temps around 8-10C http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif i assume it was a tongue in cheek remark rather than any reference to accuracy.

Another post has been deleted for sniping. It's sad when we have to read 1 line digs at people and then spend time cleaning up after them. If anyone has an issue please report or pm the member or members they have a problem with but please not here. Ok thanks, back to discussion.

Looking a the day 10 ens means they still show a fragmented vortex with continued wave 2 action so the overall picture is still one of a weak Atlantic and +ve ht anomalies further north. OK we know the Atlantic still has enough push to keep us relatively mild and wet into week 2 but with a polar profile like that we do have a better chance of evolving to a cold set up than we have seen in many years. We are likely to see those Arctic heights varying day on day, the models always calculating a slightly different pattern to the pv from run to run. Wave breaking of warmer air into a rotating cold vortex and the effects is not a constant and will pulse or ebb and flow creating these changes. Those gaps in the struggling PV inducing this overall Northern Hemisphere pattern is still full of interest and possibilities for further change- with raging zonality much lower down the list than normal. It is early in the season to expect any notable cold for the UK but as we get closer to December inevitably the Arctic cold pool will naturally expand.Provided these episodes of wave breaking continue then we will be in a better postion to draw on it. Let's remain objective and continue with some excellent discussion that many of you have taken part in recently.

Just looking to the coming week. The almost stationary pattern with the Sceuro block holding up Atlantic momentum is going to mean a pretty wet few days for many of us. Below a snapshot of midweek, which would seem typical of many days to come, the jet driving low pressure towards our latitude bringing bands of rain and showers, not just to us but many parts of western Europe. The rain amounts in some places could lead to some flooding and very unpleasant conditions at times. Not something that perhaps will raise much discussion as many eyes are on the bigger picture further on, but i feel it worth a mention.

Well no real change this morning. Ecm op. still intent on a easterly later on but looking at all the means it does look like it overdoes the Greenland ridging. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=21&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0 The block to the east is simply keeping Atlantic lows just to our west feeding in bands of rain or showers.

Ok guys let it go now please. I think we should go back to model talk and on that point let's see if the pub run follows the ECM.

No need to rename the thread Mushy It is what it is -Model discussion-no censoring of views as long as they are on topic. You can put your views in there the same as everyone else or if you want to, use the very quiet In depth Model thread that's still open. Now can we leave it at that or pm me or anyone on the team if you still have concerns. Cheers bud.

Come on Mushy live and let live. It's an open discussion thread and members are entitled to focus on the charts that suit to support their views. Some of us try to see all possibilities but as you know a lot of people enjoy the cold charts, whether they come to fruition or not. You keep beating this drum but it wont change the way people wish to post.As long as it's based on outputs then it's on topic and up for discussion.

Yep was thinking the same. If the ECM op has the Atlantic ridging into Greenland modelled correctly at T168hrs, which derails the Atlantic train, then we can see why it almost seamlessly tips the scales towards the colder pattern. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH1-168.GIF?08-0 again a step further than the other models at mid-range with those heights. Quite possible of course in view of the 2 wave activity but i think we would all be more confident with support from other runs although even they showed a little more strength in that Greenland ridging but not to the ECM extent that cuts off the Atlantic trough. Let see if the ECM mean does indeed tilt in that direction later but wrt the overall trend reasons to be cheerful as Ian Drury once sang.

Understandable excitement at the ECM Op but let's please keep things on topic. A few 1 liners that added nothing have been removed. Remember if you want a good ramp there is the other thread. Ta.

Yes pretty much agree with your thoughts SK,nicely put. We can see that there's a lot of possibilities for a cold UK pattern if-and that's the key word-the wave 2 activity continues and builds towards Greenland. We just have the beginning's of such a setup but the current modelling shows the heights just fail to tip the balance enough to split the Atlantic flow and build a solid High to our north. We do see some +ve height anomalies up there but they currently fail to push the jet far enough south so that the UK remains in the firing line for those Atlantic lows for the time being. The difference with the earlier ECM Op was it's apparent bias to overcook those heights and thus modelled the easterly at day 10. Shortly we will see how it handles this on it's 12z. It would't surprise me to see that again.

My views on the UK and both GFS 12z Op runs in H.resolution are that they do show slightly more heights towards Greenland and the trough more dig se into Europe. Small steps but the overall Atlantic pattern still means no change for us yet into the medium term.

Welcome to the forum David. Perhaps put your location up please.