phil nw.

A few posts straying off the thread topic so can we keep to model discussion please all. There are plenty of other threads where you can debate Winter prospects,UKMO forecasts and many other things. Thanks.

Come on people many of the last few posts have nothing to do with the Stratosphere! Let's get back on topic now please. Ta.

A very exciting(for cold) ECM run this morning which ups the stakes on splitting the vortex in week 2-that's quite a +ve anomaly at day 10. You can sort of understand though why the professional agencies are not yet jumping all over this when looking at the mean ht, anomalies. Day 10 yes impressive cross polar heights but also if you run through the suite there's little change in the orientation of the jet and the Atlantic trough, which keeps the UK in a similar set up over the next couple of weeks. The latest combined London T2m and precipitation ensembles suggest more of the same with rainfall amounts continuing to rise. No getting away from the fact though that we are in a great position for future developments of more favourable blocking as we continue to save 2 wave action from the troposphere.

Yes PM for the next couple of weeks the Atlantic still promises to hold sway for the Uk and W.Europe. Those polar heights, although being shown consistently are just not enough presently to disrupt the westerly pattern. Once we see some of those green(weak heights)turn to yellow/orange(solid Arctic heights) to our north then we could be in (cold) business. Something like these are what we are looking for Wave breaking into the Greenland area being shown,a much quicker and more solid route to a cold pattern.We lose the troublesome Greenland vortex and at the same time the Russian cold pool would find an easier route south west towards the UK. The block to our east is doing half the job by forcing the jet se keeping a cooler low pressure regime than we might have had - the jet on a more southerly path.However we are entering a more unsettled period because of this almost stationary pattern. Having said that i agree with many of you we are looking at a much weaker and fractured vortex than normal which could bode well for proper cold further on.

We can see from the 12z runs continued pulsing of heights into the vortex,particularly over the Canadian side mid-range. So signs of continued warmings but not enough to break the current set up as the transient ridges move around the NH. The UK image is typical of all the models over the next week or so. For us then it looks like an ongoing pattern of mainly west/south westerly action with a slow moving Atlantic upper trough nearby with attendant fronts interspersed with some brief drier spells.

A reminder to please keep to model discussion in here please. One post has been removed-no discussion on the charts- and one moved to the other Model thread which accommodates more general views. thanks.

Not wishing to stifle discussion but let us remember this thread is about current models and what they are showing. One or two posts seem to be drifting into the realms of Winter forecasting/hopes. Those views can be expressed in the many other threads that we have running. OK thanks and on we go.

Yes Captain no real change for us currently with things looking rather average under the continuing influence of a slow moving Atlantic trough. Meanwhile over in NA and Canada that injection of cold showing up in the next few days as a deep upper trough digs well south taking very cold air with it over the mid west and eastwards. Another early taste of Winter for them with snowstorms for parts of Canada spreading south into the New England states.

...and a cold plunge into E.Europe via the backdoor.The way to a real cold setup with a little more retrogression. Signs are there but at this range just something to ponder.

The 18z parallel run showing an impressive amount of warm air heading poleward on the Alaskan side http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/run/gfsnh-0-96.png?18 Which is sending a deep upper trough and cold well south over the eastern side of the NA/Can. No change for us yet but the buckling of the jet upstream will have the effect of further draining the Atlantic energy,hence the stalling Atlantic trough later in the week. More changes to come I feel.

It feels much more seasonal with polar air now in the mix. Much of the this week looks that way too with with only single figure max's for many places until Thursday and our first really widespread frosts likely, especially Tues/Weds.nights. A snapshot of midweeks picture shows the cold air in place The end of the week sees another low and it's fronts sweeping across in a brisk westerly flow with a brief warm sector before a return to more average temperatures with showers by the weekend. Overall the NH modelling continues to show plenty of disruption to the pv with the UK trough looking likely to become slow moving being held insitu by the Euro block further east into next week. We can see the trough disruption as it comes against the block at T168hrs on both main models. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014110312/gfs-0-168.png?12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110312/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0 Nothing out of the ordinary weather wise currently but the bigger picture still shows plenty of +ve height anomalies extending towards the pole including signs that we may see further development of those Euro heights further north. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110312/ECH101-144.GIF?03-0 a much different pattern to last year that's for sure.

Good that Ed,A place to comment on his antics of taking money off mugs for headline grabbing forecasts. He pinches other peoples ideas and knowledge and tries to make money out of it. What a piece of work he is.

An off topic post has been removed. Just a reminder to keep to model discussion in here please. Thanks all.

Yes Don the continual signal for a mild Winter from many LRF s bugs me somewhat. I would have thought the pro.agencies have more data than we have and yet seem to come to different conclusions. Not suggesting they will be correct but the number of recent LR forecasts going against what appear to be pretty good background signals for some thing colder makes one wonder.

Hi welcome aboard @actguk. Yes whatever the the actual outcome the end of the week certainly looks wet and windy for many of us.

Another indication of a weaker than normal vortex is the lower mean zonal wind flows- around 10m/s less than normal. Encouraging signs of the upwelling in the mean 500hPa charts too,those +ve heights showing well this morning.

Something i tried to highlight yesterday but BA has summed things up better! Those 2 areas continue to show in week 2 with continued warm air advection towards the pole. The ECM ht anom./means along with Naefs ht anom at T240hrs. underlining the ongoing attack on the vortex. At this early stage with the pv still cooling we shouldn't expect complete early disintegration but a better chance as Blue says of something maybe earlier than expected as we go into early Winter. Meanwhile it's a waiting game as long as those lower heights to our north west continue to control the Atlantic pattern.

A look at the ECM mean charts show plenty of warm anomalies over high latitudes but the unsettled spell looks like continuing for us. We can see the troughing being squeezed se towards us in the overall pattern. which means a fairly average Autumnal setup for now. Two main areas for me for any height rises are to the east and over W.Canada. I think the one area that may produce first is the Canadian heights which appear to have more pronounced warm air advection deep into the polar region. Presently this isn't upwelliing sufficiently yet to disturb the pv greatly but this area continues to see ongoing +ve ht anomalies.

Looking at the GFS 06z Stratosphere charts shows the lower level warm anomalies forecasted over the next 10 days on the Conus/Pacific side.These at t240hrs. which underline the strength of the 500hPa heights,especially over that side,which appear to be a regular feature so far this Autumn. Early signs of tropospheric upwelling of warmer air but not enough to disturb the vortex to any great extent yet. However as others have suggested promising indications so far-maybe a chance of a Canadian warming?

I think most of us would be content with that. Mixed indeed,some Atlantic activity for storm watchers with some cold and possible snow for cold fans. I like the idea of the jet running south which could give an east/north easterly setup with widespread snow as a battleground develops.

A colder outlook for early next week continues to show on the 12s so far but nothing out of the ordinary by the looks. We lose the current warmth by day 4 as the next low sweeps east across bringing a brief northerly and a drop in temperature for all http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014103012/UW120-21.GIF?30-17 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1&runpara=1 Thereafter it looks like we see temperatures closer to normal with the westerly flow bringing air sourced from the north Atlantic much of the time. Those dark b!ues and purples(low heights)are becoming more extensive across the north which is the usual progression of the polar profile for November.They promise to dictate the Atlantic outlook for time being with a mobile setup. .

Yes a first sign of some real cold next week.Excitement building already. We hope that members can use this thread for ramping and the more reasoned views go in the main thread so things can run smoothly for all.

A couple of of posts have been removed-no model discussion in them. A reminder to all as anticipation builds for our first dose of colder weather just to keep to the model outputs in here please. If anyone wants to ramp,moan or speculate without some reference to charts then the other model thread is the place to go- https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/ Ok on with discussion.

Midlands Ice age I have removed your post and will pm you.☺

No-leave it here,ta