phil nw.

Latest runs certainly continuing with.the prospect of Summer like weather next week. The ens over the last few days have been pretty unanimous with modeling a substantial blocking high over the NW Europe after the coming weekend. The 6-10day NOAA chart We should see some warm and sunny days during this period and it will be no surprise to see temperatures maxing out into the low,even mid 20's C in favoured areas.

Looking at the 00z ens shows quite a strong signal for an Azores High build as we go into the first few days of September. The GFS stamps for day 10 and clusters about 90% in favour ? ECM mean and spread for around the same time the green colour as i understand it indicates quite a low spread. link here http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/ensemble-mean-and-spread-four-standard-parameters?area=Europe&step=240&relative_archive_date=2014082500&parameter=MSLP After a changeable end to Summer it seems the prospect of a warmer and sunnier start to Autumn,especially further south,looks quite possible this morning.

A slightly different overview of the ever changing Northern Hemisphere upper air pattern. 2 images showing the jet stream and upper level flow-the left one is now and the right one for T72hrs. We can see the current chilly northerly coming down across the UK from the Scandinavian trough gradually being replaced by slightly warmer Atlantic air after the weekend as the approaching little ridge moves across us through Sunday.. The ridge backs the winds towards the south west by Monday as the next low comes in with it's attendant rain. With this wave train we are set to remain more on the colder side of the general pattern next week so no great warm up yet but temperatures should get closer to normal with the loss of this week's Arctic feed. A glance at T144hrs. shows the next ridge after Mondays low moving across round mid-week. I think these give a good idea of the Atlantic mobile pattern modeled for the next 5-6 days with that southerly tracking jet and the changeable weather expected from day to day.

No sign of that on the 12z means pji.ECM mean now out day10 looking similar to GFS with energy still running well south. No indication of any buckling of the upstream jet to create an opportunity for the jet to swing north as yet. it looks pretty flat and zonal across NA. Quote from those discussionsOVERALL THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. Link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html There does appear to be less certainty further on into week 2 though with the possibility of some tropical storm development that may shake up the wavelengths across the Atlantic but we are probably looking into September for any effects on us..

The first part of next week looks quite unsettled with the jet across the south. rain or showers moving through after the weekend affecting many areas from Monday. The air somewhat warmer though as winds swing in off the Atlantic with values closer to normal especially further south. No sign from the GFS ens mean and the NOAA 6-10 day Anomaly forecasts of any change out to day 10 so it looks like Summer ends with something of a whimper just brief drier intervals from transient ridging seems to be all we can expect currently as the westerly Atlantic setup is modeled until the last day of August.

Yes it's certainly true that we have had only brief sunny intervals these last few days which has meant it does feel quite chilly at times. Not much in the way of rain though just a few brief showers. In fact i have had to water plants especially the pots and baskets which have continued to dry out in the wind. Have the feeling now with this chilly pattern and a changeable Atlantic setup promised for next week that this Summer is ending on a whimper. Still no complaints for me as this Summer has seen a lot of dry and warm weather which has enabled me to enjoy my outdoor activities.

Certainly different solutions on the 06Z gfs ens members Knocker. I would think that's what the op meant?

Yes changeable westerly type pattern is how i would describe itand seems to be well agreed by the outputs next week Knocker. Meanwhile the T84hrs fax shows the modest and transient(48hrs?) ridge moving in by Saturday which should be just enough to dry things out with some sunshine but with cooler air still aloft no great heat but perhaps low 20'C for some further south. After that the winds back towards a somewhat warmer south west ahead of Monday's modeled low.This will see temperatures nearer to normal but with rain or showers moving through at times.

Looking at the T120hrs charts suggests that most of us may yet squeeze a decent weekend out of the modeled ridge. The charts showing the Atlantic low with it's attendant fronts closing in to the west overnight Sunday now. We lose the chilly northerly by the end of Friday and as winds drop off temperatures have a chance to recover with values back up towards 20c in the south in the late Summer sunshine. A window of fine weather to enjoy over the BH weekend before the Atlantic south westerlies move in at the start of next week which will see more normal temperatures but with changeable conditions. The NOAA 6-10 day anomaly chart above indicating the pattern going into next week

I have moved the last few posts to the Summer 2014 thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79920-summer-2014-thread/ where they should have gone in the first place. Some general chat is ok but please try and keep your views in here loosely based around the charts -the clue is in the thread title. Thanks all.

Yes a slightly weaker jet would make a difference to the feel of things over the week end as it would see a stronger ridge and some warmth easing north at least for a brief period. Looking at the GFS/UKMO currently though it's difficult to see the weather settling down for long as the next low approaches the west on Sunday. The current Atlantic ridge being replaced by falling heights over Greenland next week with a westerly Atlantic pattern looking likely to establish.The better weather as usual would be further south between any rain bands.

Hi mhielte, Welcome to the forum Yes a fair summary of the outlook certainly over the coming few days. The Scandinavian trough only slowly easing away towards the end of the week.

My view on this is that tropical storm developments upstream would seem to be the key to the change in the pattern since the start of the month. Looking through the charts since the start of August and we can see the previously persistent Scandi ridge coming under more pressure from the gradually increasing jet. It looks to me that Bertha re- invigorated the Atlantic trough as it tracked across from the tropics flattening those heights further east. Some charts showing the eventual breakdown of the Scandinavian block which kept us on the warm side of the Atlantic setup through a good part of Summer. Comparing the track of the jet before Bertha and now. the block to our east gone with the jet now cutting further south and well into Europe.

The cooling effects of the Scandi trough will be with us for much of next week with bands of showery rain and depressed temperatures. Looking through the GFS and ECM means though the suggestion of a warm up is very much there and even by day 10 we can see the 5C isotherm on the 850's has moved north. The trend continues thereafter with the Azores high ridging towards the south of the UK. An improvement of sorts but i would think locations further north would remain more changeable in the westerly pattern that looks likely to evolve from there.

Yes PM a different world up there.I was on Cairngorm in June and the thermometer outside the at the top Ski station was only 4C then. Looking at the NH view that's quite a large cold pool around our side of the Arctic ready to come south.

Yes i was just viewing the 850's and how far south they dig into Europe next week Captain.Should be some interesting weather somewhere around the Alps as the cold upper airi meets the warmth over S.Europe.

It's quite simple really if it's in the outputs it's ok to give your views-that's what this thread is for. If however a view is more of hope than data based then maybe the other thread ie Model moans and ramps, is the one to post in. Members will have different interpretations sometimes and that's fine but all posts should remain respectful to others. Ok then on with discussion,the 12z runs will be out soon. Thanks all.

The charts show a very good example of a blocking high out in the Atlantic which in effect splits the jet stream.Most of the energy going north across Greenland and then back down towards NW Europe which sharpens the downstream upper trough over the coming days. The situation at T96hrs The next low coming from the Iceland area with more unsettled conditions spreading south east by Sunday followed by a cool showery period into next week with those winds from the north west.

I have moved 3 posts to the model banter thread here- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/ where they were more suited. Only posts containing your views on the models in here please all. Thank you.

All courtesy of quite an extensive pool of Arctic air coming from the north east. quite a notable Siberian/Scandinavian upper trough setting up shop.

I just remember school. Too many years have passed to recall the weather without looking at the archives. Agree with some comments above a more winding down feeling to those recent golden days of Summer.

Yes PM they are all showing the same outlook-a cool and showery North westerly through the coming week. Looking like just a brief improvement towards the end of the week before the next system moves into the north west on Sunday. The T84hrs fax for Friday going with the raw output with a brief improvement mainly for the south as a transient weak ridge moves in for the weekend. ECM also showing the persistence of the Scandinavian upper trough into next week. so ex Bertha has certainly shook up the Atlantic setup sweeping away our recent warmth with the long lasting heights over Scandinavia gone. We now see the opposite picture with Mid-Atlantic heights into Greenland changing the upper flow to north of west and the UK now very much on the cooler side of the wave pattern.

Not a great outlook for the end of the week. Comparing T120 hrs the UKMO seems the keenest on any ridging for Saturday but in any event it looks to be a brief affair. It still looks a rather cool and mobile Atlantic pattern and if the modeled Greenland high materialises it will ensure a continuation of this into the following week.

Yes chaps here's hoping hence it's in here. Some hints of late Summer warmth returning at the far end of the GEfs-but as you quite rightly said Knocker not yet strong enough for serious discussion.

A lot cooler feel to the air now after the visit of ex-Bertha veered the winds to the nw. It looks like this setup will persist with a Scandinavian upper trough ruling the roost for a week or so at least. Some chilly nights to come too especially further north. Oh for one last visit from the Azores high for a nice BH to end Summer.