phil nw.

Fair doo's Steve-plenty of heat for the end of the week over the near continent being modeled on the 06Z GFS that's for sure. Looks like a glancing blow for the se quadrant of England at the moment but certainly time for a little nudge west to see some of that getting into more of the UK. Could get interesting as the cooler Atlantic air pushes against the warm bulge late Fri/Sat.-storm risk spreading across from France.

GFS ens means rock steady on the evolution towards Atlantic trough further west and a building Euro high. now coming into the 10 day range,remember a few days ago this was showing 300hrs +. Not sure about Steve's 35C on this as but 25C would be a ball park figure for now with the upper flow still more from the south west. Not to say that greater heat could develop down the line if the upstream trough sharpens and the surface heat is drawn from the continent. A good enough outlook though for many of us i would think as it stands.

What a lovely sunny and warm day here for a change after so many dull,damp and cloudy days. It's been great to be able to do some gardening and sit outside in Summer wear. Hopefully some more to come soon after this week's blip.

I am still hopeful that ens means continuing to show a more settled,warmer period from Mid-June will verify. An Atlantic trough further west and a Euro rather than Azores High seem the likely outcome.

Ok this one now locked. New thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80477-model-output-discussion-310514-onwards/ to carry on discussions.

A new thread then to continue discussions on the Model outputs as we go into the first month of the meteorological Summer. Current outputs continue to show a more unsettled outlook gradually spreading in off the Atlantic as low pressure again takes control by mid-week. No early sign of a quick way out of this rather static pattern and although there are a few hints that the position of the Atlantic trough may ease west in week 2 we are still waiting for our first real signs of a fine and warm spell. GFS mean charts for day 5 and 10 show the current forecasted 850hPa pattern with the expected surface features. Please continue to post on topic in this thread and that is any views/comments specifically around current model charts or related data. Just a reminder we do have 2 other model threads where members can post-more in-depth here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/ or a more relaxed thread for general banter or chat related to the model outputs here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/ Ok continue discussions below when ready.

Time for a new thread i think, ready for the new month and season so will be locking this one shortly peeps. I will give it a few minutes and then close.

Yes it would be good to see some kind of pattern change out of this almost Autumn type of weather and there are continuing signs of that in later ens. outputs. The forecasted upper trough around the UK for next week is again modeled to recede later in week 2 and onwards. Later naef's ens means showing some warmth and rising pressure easing north from the continent. it would start to feel much more Summer like especially further south and east if this came about. Of course we are looking around12 days + ahead but this trend has been building in recent days and would seem a more likely way to something different rather than the Azores high option. Looking at naef's again there is still a -ve heght anomaly showing in mid-Atlantic in week 2 which you think would prevent the AH ridging north for now. With this in mind we could still have a weak Atlantic pattern developing for later into June but with a more traditional nw/se split at times. No great heatwave yet if this evolution came about but temps.in the low 20'C from that would certainly feel more seasonal.

The Russian block seems to be at it's peak by day 5 on tonights ens charts and then starts to wane . The w. euro trough still looks like our main influence for at least next week. Longer term just a hint in later ens frames of the remaining Canadian vortex weakening and the energy draining the lows this way diminishing. Logically if this happens look for the upper trough receding nw and thicknesses rising from the south or south east but that is probably around 2 weeks away.

Let's stick to discussions around the current charts please all-plenty of other threads for looking back or views about the coming Summer. Thankyou kindly. .

As feared the little break in the unsettled weather due from tomorrow looks all to brief. The fax for Sunday shows the ridge already being pushed away by the approaching low pressure from the nw with it's attendant fronts already into the west. rain coming through for many by late Sunday with the se hanging on to the best conditions until last. Not a great outlook then for the rest of next week-the gefs 06z pattern pretty conclusive for Thursday next week as an example. the upper cold pool somewhere around the UK with rather cool and showery conditions. The heat along with the upper ridge still away east where some areas will see temperatures well above average.

Just thinking Captain how the Canadian part of the vortex kept feeding the jet towards us last Winter and looking at the NH view very little has changed other than a weaker version. the lows spinning off that region coming se. Any attempt of a building Azores High is scuppered until that energy train somehow is cut off or diverted upstream of which there is no sign yet.

Link to the phase diagrams here sb. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html a current forecast for a weak phase 2 as we go into June which is a decent match for current ens outputs. Latest report and forecast of the MJO here(pdf file) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf The MJO has been relatively quiet recently and seems to be slow moving around the Indian Ocean maybe why there seems little movement in the overall pattern currently. edit: a useful paper on the MJO and it's effects here http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf it;s a few years old but explains things quite well.

Hopefully some dry weather Friday-Sunday for many of us Jo ,although chance of a few showers can't be entirely dismissed i suppose. It does look a much better prospect for the end of the week though as the Azores High ridges in,however it does look like a downhill trend to rain again early next week.

Yes it's a shame the 006Z GFS op looks out of kilter with the ens means. It's difficult to ignore the continuing forecast of another UK/NW European trough after the weekend ridge. the main thrust of the jet still well south by day 10 with the Russian block continuing to be the problem forcing the low pressure se towards the UK and Europe.

The 12z runs still going with a much better little spell at the end of the week showing the Azores High ridging in nicely.Sunshine and dry pretty widely at the weekend.Possible 22c in favoured spots for Saturday. all to brief though as both GFS and UKMO show the approach of the Atlantic trough from the nw by Sunday so frontal rain moving into the nw by then and this breakdown continuing into early next week. Looking at the T120hrs NH charts we can clearly see the split flow of the jet around our locale as the shallow upper trough starts to slide se into the continent. The Russian block to the east persisting which does us no favours by locking the trough across W.Europe keeping things rather unsettled for a while longer.

The GFS at day 6 send more jet energy sliding under the block to the NE which would make for a different outlook in week 2. UKMO continues with the earlier suggestion of flattening the Azores ridge as does the GEM. Let's see if the ECM will support the GFS later but at the moment it is on it's own against the other Operationals and the 00z ens means.

Yes Rob have to agree with that and BA and Knockers thoughts. That Azores ridge for Friday looks like a 2 day only offer before a resurgence in the jet starts to flatten it by early next week. Those of us further south and east may just squeeze a decent Sunday out of it too but already modeling shows the Atlantic bringing rain into the north west by then.Maybe a little soon for exact timing and details on this but the general trend from the 00z ECM and GFS runs are going with this now. Week 2 then shows the trough digging se into Europe again dropping a cold upper pool over the near continent again. Naefs and ECM Ht anomalies for day 10 back to square 1 as they say-unsettled and rather cool-after a brief respite at the end of the week.

Well the day turned out ok after a dull start.Plenty of sunny spells from late morning as the skies cleared a bit. My wife got some washing dried on the line earlier and I actually got the lawn cut this evening-best part of the day. Now tomorrow looks decent to start with going downhill in the afternoon when showery outbreaks look like becoming more widespread from the se. Temps. 17-19C not too bad where we get the sun out.

Yes we have had enough of this trough over NW Europe now Mushy but as you said we have more rain to come this coming week. I am looking for the Azores High to offer some relief as attempts to ridge towards us around Fri/Sat. As for Summer who knows?

Sun trying to break through now after overnight rain. Everything has had a good soaking over the last 2 days so it looks like the lawn will remain uncut.

They do John but the ECM op runs continue to show an Atlantic cut off trough across the north next week end. Naefs and ECM Ht anomalies are not showing a strong enough signal for a robust high building right across so i reckon the jury is out on this.

Yes a tenuous ridging of the AH next week-end still modeled on the 12z ens ht forecasts. We can compare the NOAA and ECM means here still some uncertainty on this though.Some op runs still favour a trough coming across from the west. Some weakening of the jet running across the south next week end is apparent from the Gfs mean though so a window for the ridging to occur. notice though a little residual energy still pushing against that ridge and i think this is where the uncertainty lies in how this plays out.The ECM op has the jet pushing through.

Yup got it now CH.Thunder, lightning, heavy rain and blustery winds. Just looking at radar the worst has just passed now,as you said short and sharp. Looks like a convective band with T+L has developed in the last hour or so,now stretching ne from around Worcester through Brum and into Staffs and Leics.moving north west at the moment.

Bright echoes on radar with lightning just to my south,sky darkening with really black clouds in that direction. Looks like heading this way from Coventry area. Gordon in Bedworth are you under it yet?