phil nw.

Yes Knocker the cooler pattern with the Scandi trough looks like the main feature for the coming week. The London Ens graphs indicating the drop in expected surface temperatures from both suites. maximums down to high teens maybe just struggling to 20C even down here.A much different feel to things compared to recent weeks.

I must admit Frosty i did have a little chuckle at that so i'll give you that one but please keep on topic and talk about the models now. We do like to keep the thread on track. I thank you.

Comparing the 3 for Sunday the upper pattern is agreed wrt the UK trough but ECM goes with a shallower low. they all send the low out into the northern North Sea afterwards as it becomes absorbed by the parent Iceland low.A changeable outlook remains for next week as a more mobile westerly pattern sets up with much fresher feeling temperatures.

Yes Captain latest UKMO Fax's have moved towards a more significant feature coming into the UK compared to the overnight run. We can see a much deeper low approaching the sw at the same time frame on the T72hrs latest chart when compared with the earlier T84hrs from the overnight run. still time for further adjustments but as it stands now it's looking more likely that a wet and windy spell will be moving up the country on Sunday.

Yup model ens means show the upper trough affecting the UK for at least another week,somewhat longer than first thought a few days ago maybe? Of course there will be some brighter interludes between the fronts but mixed to say the least with temperatures nearer to normal . For the time being though the continental heat which gave many southern areas above average readings finally draining away over the weekend by the looks. Just a hint into mid-month that the pattern moves east with some rebuild of the Azores high but tenuous signs for now. I would like one last spell or so of sun and warmth before the end of Summer and the last week or 10days to include the BH would suite most i would think.

Mixed and changeable is the theme for the UK for the time being. A look at the T84hrs fax shows a chain or family of lows heading this way from the W.Atlantic. these systems with frontal rain affecting us over the next week. Of course it's not as bad as it looks especially at this time of year with higher thicknesses across the south some weak transient ridges will bring some drier and brighter interludes between the rain bands. The general trend into week 2 seems to continue with some eastward movement of the Atlantic pattern as the Icelandic upper trough is modeled towards Scandianvia by day 10. We can compare the ECM mean for T96 and T240hrs to see this trend. so likely evolving into the usual north/south split in a westerly flow with some decent late Summer conditions looking to ease north. Anyway that seems the probable way forward but let's see if the 12z model runs, due soon, continues with this.

A couple of posts have been moved here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/ as they were not adding to model discussions- rather questions about high tides and travel plans because of the possible storm.

Indeed Frosty prior to the appearance of Bertha the ens means were indeed looking at this..It still looks the likely outcome i think but perhaps a couple of days later. Maybe give your own views with some data terrier if you are feeling this may not be the case?

After tomorrow the unsettled theme starts to kick in nationwide as a couple of systems move across from the Atlantic even before the approach of Bertha due over the weekend. Wednesday and Friday look quite wet for many with Thursday the dry and bright interlude. Whatever the final track of this ex-tropical storm it does looks like extending the stay of the upper trough well into next week keeping things changeable and showery. Of course there will be some brighter spells between the rain bands but the next 7 days do look less like high Summer. The GFS mean indicates some improvement with pressure starting to rise again from the south around day 10 as the Azores high makes a move this way. giving some hope of a return to warmer and brighter weather especially further south.

No problem with people having a moan or ramp in here that's what this thread is for but they should reflect model outputs. John and Polar M are just making the point about how far ahead one can reasonably look. Writing off a whole month for instance is really guesswork bearing in mind that the daily runs don.t go beyond 16 days ala GFS. What i am suggesting is have a good moan about the charts if you want but try and keep it real wrt timescales.

Yes the topical depression throws everything up in the air wrt week 2. ECM op certainly deepens it and phases it with the Atlantic trough from day 7 wich really sharpens the Atlantic/Euro wave pattern. drawing the continental heat towards the UK along with probable heavy and possibly thundery rain/showers as it meets the moist sub-tropical Atlantic air. Compared to the way the UK and GFS seem to trending the ECM looks the most bullish in deepening the TS but never the less this new kid on the block will only serve to delay any return to the Azores high ridging this way.

Yes fair enough draztic a pretty good summary overall of the current outputs i think. The +ve ht anomalies around Scandinavia proving to be stubbornly persistent for at least another week. The difference this time is the Atlantic/Euro wave pattern is just a little further east so the Upper trough is closer to the UK which will continue to plague western and more northern regions through the coming days by the looks. Certainly a better few days for much of next week for those further se with temperatures modeled into the upper 20'C in a few places. The Atlantic looks like making another push towards the weekend with perhaps some heavy rain moving through eventually. Beyond that it does appear to remain a nw/se split with some eastward movement of a suppressed Azores high towards the European mainland with a flatter looking flow from the west/south west and the continuation of Iceland low heights.

As the weekend surface low fills and moves away along with much of the showery rain a weak ridge of high pressure builds north which will bring some sunshine and quite warm temperatures, particularly further south. Fax for Monday along with a couple of GFS charts The first half of next week in fact looks quite decent for sun and warmth in the south and east quarter but the nearby trough sees frontal systems flirting with western and northern areas with some rain at times. Obviously details may change and no where can be promised any completely dry days. The general picture though seems to the usual split between the nw and se with the drier and warmer conditions further the south east you are, at least for much of the coming week. It does look like Atlantic fronts and rain make a more eastward push towards the end of the week with the possibility of heavy rain as the Atlantic air comes up against the heat off the continent. ECM showing such a scenario for next week end. that of course is a while away but something to monitor with the continental heat never far away during the coming 7 days or so. So yes a mixed bag coming up i think with some sun and warmth also rain or showers but very much dependent on location how one sees things over this coming period.

Ok locking this now.New thread here- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81040-model-output-discussion-310714-onwards/

A new thread as we enter the last month of Summer. Current modeling shows a more changeable spell now moving in to the UK as a developing Atlantic trough will be the main influence over the next few days with rain or showers affecting many of us. Signs as we go into next week of some improvement as pressure starts to rise further south but further runs needed to see how this may develop. There's been some really good discussions in here this Summer so thanks to all our regular posters for that. Anyone not to keen on being to analytical are always welcome to post more general musings on their hopes or moans about the charts in the other thread here- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/ Ok on we go then with the 12z runs already out for discussions.

Closing this thread now so just hold off posting for a minute or so whilst i open a new one for August.

Yes a more changeable spell coming up. It's already in to the northern half of the UK with showers and temperatures in the teens.Still good here and further south today but although currently 22C already feeling fresher with more cloud and a breeze. The next week or so looks better further se, warmer with less rain or showers and some dry days.Much more unsettled further north and west as often the case in the modeled Atlantic pattern. Looking at the latest Ens means it's starting to evolve into a typical UK Summer pattern for the start of August -the old north/south split.

A lot of recent posts should really go in the Summer thread guys so if you could please try and keep your hope and moans around the model outputs. We do have a more relaxed approach in here but the thread should still revolve around the current runs. Thanks all.

Yes the Scandi ridging is proving quite a feature this Summer.Much of the time it has helped to advect warm and fine continental weather this way with the added interest for storm lovers on occasion as surface heat from the continent mixed with the cooler Atlantic air creating some convective activity. This next trough is modeled closer to the UK so it looks like many of us will see more unsettled weather with some showery rain from the end of the week and into next week,although temperatures further south still quite decent. The ens means show the trough becoming stationary close to the UK for the following week but a trend for it to fill and recede as pressure starts to rise again from the south. The GFS mean charts for days 5/10/15 Day 10 in good agreement with the ECM mean so some reason to think the unsettled spell will ease later into week 2. Hopefully a trend back to warmer and drier weather further into August.

Yes i remember that Nick. There's a number of video clips on you tube-this one from Sky News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZjfScL_wRE

Just to underline John's post and PM's earlier comments one liners are not useful,especially writing off a whole month. There's just one or two that tend to do this so please let's keep this thread informative by putting a bit more model content in such posts to back up your views. Thanks.

It looks like we still retain reasonable warmth right through this week for much of the country,away from the far nw. In spite of the modeled trough for the end of the week which will bring some showery rain for many temperatures are still showing low to mid 20'sC for much of England and Wales in particular. it's looking more like the trough will stall and gradually fill into the following week as pressure starts to rebuild from the south again possibly linking to the omni-present Scandi ridge to form a solid Euro block. so maybe no protracted breakdown to our very decent Summer so far.

A further post discussing temperatures preferences, after PM 's request, has been removed. Please keep to model views only in here please all. Thanks.

Some decent weather about especially further south in the next few days rjbw- as i alluded to in my earlier post. Ensemble modeling has been pretty consistent with the upper air forecast and the developing trough by end of next week. Hopefully the GFS mean for 10-15 day period is on to something with a rebuild of the Azores High

Whilst the next 48hrs sees fresher Atlantic air spreading south east more widespread cooler and unsettled conditions are likely towards the end of next week in fact. Until then it's promises to be more typical of average UK Summer weather,always warmer and brighter in the south with only small amounts of rain here. Temperatures are still modeled to be in the low/mid 20'C for some areas. It does look a lot cooler for much of Scotland and N.Ireland with more cloud and showery rain at times although certainly no washout. The GFS ens means for next weekend- day 8- highlights the upper trough with that dig of much cooler air to all areas. When compared to the setup currently( on the left image) we can see the change expected later next week.The Azores High which has been nearby for the last few weeks then much further away to the west. The 500hPa forecast from the CPC site also modeling the upper trough over the UK in a few days time Temperatures towards the end of next week would return much closer to normal that's for sure with a more unsettled spell looking more likely now as we enter August.