phil nw.

Oh that brings back painfully memories Crewe. That was the tipping point for my and many other Winter forecasts. It went bust from there. An almost record cold Stratosphere at the start of January overwhelmed any wave breaking.

This thread is for anyone to moan or ramp cold or warm or whatever Mushy,hopefully with reference to the models. It is also for those who hope for different charts so there is leeway for all model views/hopes in here. To further clarify or re-iterate the other or main MOD thread is where we discuss what the charts actually show. As we all know it does get busy at times in Winter in there as a lot of members focus on cold but as long as what is posted is in the outputs then it's up for discussion. If some focus on cold charts but they back it up then fair enough. We shouldn't discourage any on topic views because of preference cold or mild but often in Winter a large number of members look for cold and it's just the way it is and always has been in my and your time on here. Maybe let this go now Mushy as I believe you have made your points clear enough already. Please pm me or any one in the team if you have any further issues rather then continue in here.

Definite indications that we will drift towards a colder feel to things as we go into the first week of November when looking at the 2M temps. mean chart in i'm dreamings... post above, and in the other earlier outputs from the 00z runs. A look at the days 5,10 and 15 naefs 850hPa anomalies show the erosion of the warm uppers towards average and rather cold by day 15. this trend also showing the combined ens temperature graph we can see a noticeable step change downwards in the early days of the new month on that graph. A sign of a somewhat colder Atlantic pattern to come compared to our recent mild,almost balmy feel to the air. Still unsettled and westerly driven but the likely hood of the jet meandering further south at times allowing the winds to turn away from the current more southerly quarter to a colder north Atlantic source. Nothing out of the ordinary for late Autumn it should be said but perhaps with more noticeable incursions of polar maritime air especially further north where we should start to see Highland snowfall from time to time.

A lot of this is general weather chat guys and really should go in that area, Please help the team by self moderating and post on topic in here. Just to remind people this thread is for a moan or ramp about current model outputs-the clue is in the title. Ta.

let's try to include some chat about the charts in any posts. Thanks all.

Welcome STD pleased to have you aboard but do try to keep your views directly on the current charts in here.OPI and Winter speculations are discussed in their relevant threads. Thanks.☺

Yes the pattern is looking more mobile now Barry. A typical Autumn outlook with the odd visit of colder air in the north before the next frontal system moves in from the west raising temperatures again. With the mean track of the jet around or to the north of the UK a succession of ridges and troughs keeps things unsettled as we go into early November.

A thorough analysis there Steve,a lot of work and well presented. Good stuff.

Inevitably as the cooling gathers apace over the polar regions modelling is showing the falling off height anomalies in the 500hPa charts as we go into November. I guess this is no surprise to most of us -the polar height anomalies we have seen thus far have been observed in many previous Octobers. I should add though the fact that we are now reverting to normal service as we approach November doesn't mean anything wrt Winter prospects one way or the other. Anyway we can see the expected developments from the 00z Naefs and ECM mean charts,comparing now and the T240hrs outlook. add in last nights NOAA mean ht forecasts for days 8-14 based on yesterdays 12z run and we can see the ongoing picture continues to be our typical Autumn pattern of Atlantic westerlies with frontal systems and drier intervals in transient ridges. It looks like we may lose the milder feel as we go into week 2 with signs of the jet coming south but overall just our normal pattern for the time of year.

Let's not spoil this thread by debating past Winters peeps.There are other threads for that. The negative readings look like they are steadying between -2 and -2.5 with only about 1 week to go. It 's looking more and more likely it will get a good test against the raised expectancy by many of a colder than average Winter.

Just removed a post with no model discussion,only Winter hopes. Only post about the model outputs in here please. Thanks.

Indeed no real change in the overall pattern is showing in the models this evening. It seems we continue with another week or more of rather mild south westerlies bringing a lot of cloud and occasional rain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html The far north west could see a lot of rain from more active frontal systems as the jet wavers across that region over the next few days bringing some temporary cooler incursions of pm air. Generally though rather a drab,damp and mild period with temperatures remaining well up,especially at night. The only positive I can take from this set up is that the heating costs are reduced whilst it lasts.

Noticeable how the Atlantic pattern is becoming entrenched as we go into the weekend and on in to week 2. Ens means showing a long draw south westerly flow well into much of Europe with a solid Euro block and lows to our north.Low pressure being modelled along the Greenland,Iceland/Norway corridor. T144hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m6.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.gif carrying mild air across the UK and much of the continent through to day 10 and beyond. The jet just flirting with the far north of the UK on occasion but the general picture continues to keep any cold air away for now.

All 3 main models continue to show the changeable west/south westerly flow over the UK continuing. Whilst there are indeed -ve ht anomalies over the Arctic the persistence of Icelandic/Greenland low pressure is the main driver of our current outlook. Little change seems likely with occasional bands of rain or showers interspersed with some transient ridges giving drier intervals,particularly further south.

Hi John, I have sent you a PM. edit, just seen your last posting John-glad it's sorted.

Current modelling shows October continuing the warmer than average outlook with the exception of the blip over the next 48hrs. A warm up again as pressure rises from the south west pushing more tropical maritime air across NW Europe. Mean charts for day 10 this morning Jet stream being pushed north of the UK with the driest conditions as usual in the south going forwards as we would expect in that pattern.

A lot of comment around the forum about the current state of the fledgling vortex. I don't know if we can take anything from this at this early stage wrt what it means for Winter. Just out of interest it's worth glancing back through the archives at the NH pattern on this day over the past years. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=10&hour=0&map=4&mode=1 it can be seen how many Octobers had a fragmented looking PV. This is not to suggest anything about our coming Winter and we can remain reasonably upbeat about prospects for cold with some of the background indicators. Just an observation that's all.

Good points Steve. Of course we can't know if the different agencies already consider and include these in any model upgrades such as the new GFS due soon. We have seen changes wrt the Stratosphere modelling in recent times so I would imagine forecasters would have an eye on these other factors you mention if they are on the ball. Edit to add Further to above this is worth a read from the MO Climate section http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/climate-services/case-studies/improving-our-near-term-climate-predictions It seems all recent changes are being considered in their LT forecasts.That,s the impression gained on reading that. They do suggest that lower Arctic ice levels affecting the track of the jet and that it encourages +ve ht anomalies at high latitudes thus increasing chances of Easterly winds in Winter. Just to say though that any imo Longer term outlooks can only give a general guide on probabilities and as ever should be treated with caution.☺

I say enjoy it,get out and about before the dark days and heavy cloud of Winter arrive. The outlook with the expected high next week may mean a bit more of this although fog may become an issue later. Certainly plenty of time yet before straining at the leash for bitter winds and snow.

What's reassuring for our side are the removal of forecasted +e 850's over parts of Eurasia that are currently squeezing the Russian cold pool. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014101900/EDH100-48.GIF?19-12 much better by day 10 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014101900/EDH100-240.GIF?19-12 The modelled UK high for next week should keep the mild Atlantic away from there- let's hope that outlook holds.

Indeed naefs also showing a similar +ve heights around the UK in week 2 and ongoing out to the end of the run. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?0 A warm high having tm air within it but at this time of year, if it persists, nights will cool off in time under any clearances with an increasing risk of fog and frosts. Away from the north west though things do look like settling down towards the last week of the month.

Anyone notice the vortex shape on the UK 120hrs? I did think it was calling for help, link http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014101712/UN120-21.GIF?17-18 (sorry haven't worked out how to post images on this tablet yet) Certainly not a vortex able to consolidate itself properly yet.

Yes a vigorous little secondary development Captain.The UK and ECM models actually showed this sort of feature on yesterdays 12's. A short blast of colder air before it quickly moves away http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014101712/gfs-1-96.png?12?12 To be replaced by rising pressure and warmer air again.

Ok clean slate,the childish exchanges have been removed. As previously requested please keep moans or whatever to the models not about others. Any more issues please report instead of responding here. Thanks all.

At T120hrs ECM and UKMO show a brief swipe of colder air for the far NE as that low cuts se off the main vortex towards Scandinavia. I can see what Karl is getting at with that 0C 850hPa line easing closer to the UK at times but as AJ suggests it's really just our normal Autumn type of pattern. Those lower heights to our north and the westerly pattern means any real cold for now remains out of reach with just brief polar maritime incursions for the UK. Let's give it time after all it's only mid-Autumn and the Arctic cold is still building -early days to expect anything of note yet.