phil nw.

Just illustrating through the modelling that the Polar Vortex-yes that phrase-is now becoming organised as expected now we are into mid-Autumn Knocker. Consequence is a more active jet which of course is the mobile Atlantic pattern we are now entering.

The more typical Autumnal Atlantic weather has now set in and does indeed look like the ongoing set up for the next 2 weeks at least. A look at 3 ECM mean images for today,day 5 and 10 below show the cooling of the upper atmosphere over the Arctic with much lower heights modelled as we go further into the month. so changeable conditions off the Atlantic for all. Bands of rain and showers interspersed with some drier brighter interludes.Temperatures never far from normal but certainly a different cooler feel especially in the rain and wind.

I don't believe we can take any guidance for Winter by seeing highs over the Arctic,not at this early stage anyway. The cooling of the upper atmosphere has only just got underway and the PV at an early stage of formation. Meaningful monitoring of the stratosphere will begin towards month end and I think it,s really into November where we can start to detect trends in the probable profile/strength of the PV. The point being Arctic blocking now can quickly disappear by November.

Yes quite a change for the coming week PM,underway now even in the south as the cold front and rain comes through today. Much cooler air following so feeling a lot different down here compared to recent weeks. A look at the fax out towards mid-week shows the cyclonic pattern over us. it looks like we are now sliding towards a much more seasonal Atlantic profile with bands of rain and showers for the next week and beyond with temperatures much closer to normal.

Winter model watching really starts for me when the clocks go back 1 hr at the end of October. The GFS starts coming out around 4 instead of 5pm-always a reminder along with the darker evenings that the build up of Arctic cold is well under way.

It looks quite an active cold front too Knocker. A pretty steep temperature gradient with the GFS showing a possible wave development along it across the north. some slight adjustment to detail still possible at this range but parts of Scotland in particular could see some quite heavy rain and blustery conditions as it comes through. Another view of the change to the wave pattern- we can see our wedge of warmth disappearing east along with our current Summer like conditions It's been good while it's lasted but the other face of Autumn is on it's way at the end of the week.

Just a heads up from our forecaster Nick F-copied from his post in the locked thread. quote: "My second look, synoptically, for the next 14 days ahead - the general synopsis is for increasingly unsettled conditions for early October, as upper troughing and low pressure systems to the NW move in across the UK into next week: http://www.netweathe...ryid=6186;sess= Will try and do this outlook twice week now, time and work permitting, with updates in between." unquote.

Ok closing this now.New thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81482-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-300914/

A new thread ready for the next set of model runs due soon. A change from the dry and warm golden days of this September is now getting closer just as we start the new month. A look at the 06z GFS charts illustrate the approach of the cooler and unsettled weather coming south east at the weekend. The cold front bringing a band of rain and much fresher and windier conditions to all of the UK by the start of next week. Will this change be a short term development or a more protracted unsettled period? Please continue discussions below,as usual please remain on topic and a reminder there is the Model ramp/moan thread or the Winter hopes thread for more subjective discussions. Thanks all.

Time for a new thread peeps so closing this shortly.

Yep much more Autumnal looking next week PM that's for sure. Some more images from the GFS 00z ens suite to illustrate the change. These for next Tuesday when the Atlantic trough has moved in. Postage stamps,members all modelling a similar picture with the low centre stage along with the mean 850hPa temp. chart and Warks.2mtr temperatures showing a dip after the weekend as the colder air moves down from the north west. A big difference in the feel of things coming up then with cooler and wetter weather around after this week. .

The models showing the approach of the first real Atlantic low of the Autumn at the end of next week. Frontal rain and increasing winds spreading south east bringing an unsettled spell after weeks of relatively dry and calm conditions for many of us. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif The low currently looks like being cut off from the parent upper trough so becoming slow moving close to the UK through week 2. Exact positioning still uncertain yet of course but a different outlook to our current setup seems likely. Tonight,s CPC chart certainly shows a different wave pattern as we go into October. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif The UK under the upper trough with highs out in the west Atlantic and east over Scandinavia/Russia.

Signs that week 2 will see a change with a trough developing in the eastern Atlantic and moving towards the UK. Hints of this on last nights CPC8-14day chart and showing today on the later GFS mean http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-192.png?12 It looks like as our current high moves east the Atlantic jet buckles south cutting through the present Atlantic high pressure belt. As the Captain says above perhaps another week of relatively quiet and dry weather to come but then around days 8-10 more unsettled conditions may well be showing up.

The presence of the European blocking continuing into next week,on the afternoons models. UKMO T120hrs. GFS T120hrs. The UK in a wedge of warmth whilst the developing Arctic cold goes into N.Canada and Russia. A deep looking Icelandic low being deflected away to the north as it eventually rides over our block. The jet not yet strong enough it seems to push through for now so the relatively quiet and dry Autumn looks like going into the new month.

The modelling of low heights to our north west is becoming a regular feature now.How long can the Euro/Scandi.block hold back a complete breakthrough by the Atlantic is now the main interest. GFS does show a deeper Icelandic low at T144 which brings more unsettled conditions further south next week. It,s mean though is less bullish and much like the UK model and maintains more of n/s split as we go into October. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-192.png?12 The blocking high still very much around W.Europe.

lol i still have my lucid moments Fred.

I can,t recall missing school in Winter 62-3.Transport no problem,we walked the 2 miles each way through the snow. A different era then we just got on with it.

With little change in the 500hPa picture modelled it does look like this amazingly quiet Autumn weather will extend into October. Ens graphs for Aberdeen,Manchester and London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png All showing little,if any rainfall and quite decent temps,up to low 20'c further south. Note too the expected further pressure rise towards the end of the month suggesting the block around W.Europe is here for the start of October.

A couple of posts regarding Winter prospects have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/ Let's keep to model output views in here please all. Thanks.

The ens from both main runs in no mood to break the blocking around W Europe down either once established. In addition to the ECM mean above the GFS showing the same scenario at T240hrs. and the ens graph extending the largely dry and settled outlook well into October as already suggested. maybe only the far north seeing some noticeable rain on the odd day.

Next week we see the modelled westerly pattern establishing but with a lot of high pressure close to the south it remains pretty dry for most of us away from the far north. T84hrs fax There will be quite stiff breeze at times as the lows to the far north move across tightening the isobars. Still plenty of warmth heading for nw Europe from the sub-tropical Atlantic but inevitably with the wind off the sea this will pick up the moisture and bring a lot of cloud across on many days with sunshine at a premium for someareas. Thursday's GFS could be a typical picture. with a bit of luck parts of the midlands and sheltered east and se districts could still see some bright interludes and in the warm air it would feel quite muggy with temperatures still into the low 20'C in the afternoons.

A good summary of the outlook there Frosty.The latest runs incl.gfs mean keeping the jet well north for the next 10 days at least. Days 5 and 10 mean http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m5.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif A lot of mid latitude blocking across the Atlantic around 45-50degs N keeping the unsettled conditions to mainly the far north west. It looks like the notable dryness of September will continue for many.

A post discussing Winter prospects has been moved to the correct thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/ As we have that dedicated thread we can concentrate on the next 2-3 weeks in here.☺

GFS/ECM 12z Op runs for next week look in better agreement with the Atlantic pattern. GFS around day 7 has moved the jet further north than the 00z run and close to what the last 2 ECM runs have shown. On this basis the more unsettled conditions hold further north with a flatter looking high close to the south gamely hanging in there for a while longer. CPC forecasters are still expressing low confidence though in the week 2 wave pattern because of the lack of recent run to run consistency from their outputs. Part of their report below "FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND POOR CONTINUITY BETWEEN TODAY'S AND YESTERDAY'S FORECAST TOOLS A glance at the NH pattern at T168hrs by the GEF stamps show the uncertainties with the jet pattern. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=168 A more volatile period for modelling i suppose with the change over of the seasonal wave patterns as the PV starts to cool and expand,gradually extending it's influence further south over the coming weeks. Probably safe to say that the trend to the westerlies continues for next week but it may well be a gradual process starting further north with high pressure keeping things reasonably dry for the south for a few more days at least.

It is easy to take pot shots at any person/agency who makes a LR forecast for any season. I think we need to separate the forecasts with explained methodology from those that simply put together a forecast with little explanation on how they arrived at it. No names but we all can think of one or two who go for the headlines. I along with others had a go last Winter and believe me it took hours of research before the final draft was posted.OK i came unstuck along with quite a few others but i give respect to anyone who has a go and at least explains their method.