phil nw.

Let's keep on topic everyone. Remember this thread is for your views on the models not the BBC weather team. Further discussions on the new BBC 10 day forecasts mentioned above can always be started in a new thread. A reminder too that we do have the ongoing Met office threads for comments regarding their forecasts into the longer term. Thanks all.

ECM could well be too bullish in week 2 with building the Azores high,compared to recent ens means and GFS. The upper trough developing to our north west looks set to remain as a shallow feature next week uncomfortably close to the UK. Worst case scenario ala GFS op would give some widespread showery activity into week 2. Tonight;s GFS mean-day 8 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif Recent comments on here that the stubborn Russian ridge may lock that trough in situ and this is indeed a possibility. Overall although not an overly warm setup it could develop into quite a decent fine spell but for this modeled shallow low that at the moment looks to be the fly in the ointment.

A decent looking Summer pattern is developing by the looks of it. Yes we do have the promise of a brief interruption around the weekend as weakening fronts push SE but overall the ens means look set pretty fair over the next 10-14 days as the Azores high becomes more prominent. As ever the south and east will do better this week but later on in week 2 the fair conditions could well push further north across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif maybe only the far north seeing much in the way of frontal activity. Should be plenty of fine and warm weather about either side of the coming weekend if modeling verifies that's for sure.

Well lassie it all passed through here around 1-2pm-only 1 rumble,no lightening but bursts of torrential rain,so nothing too dramatic. All cleared now with broken cloud. Never easy to forecast these storms and radar watch seems to be the way to go on the day. Nothing much about at the moment except where i indicated above but with unstable conditions around for at least another 24hrs activity can still show up. Keep your fingers crossed

Latest NW radar shows the line of showers/storms east to west across N.Wales ,N.Midlands to Lincs/N.Norfolk slowly easing north currently. Starting to fragment and weaken maybe but still some activity to move into Lancs/Yorks for now. Some more scattered showers,some thundery showing over SW and S.Wales but a lot of dry areas now over the rest of he UK.

Yes been watching the band of storms moving north towards N.Warks. Very dark cloud now with rain starting.

The MJO can be a guide when in an active phase and forecasted to be in the same area of the Tropics by all the agencies. It does seem to be more prominent in Winter but for many weeks now the signals from this have been weak and mixed so on it's own little guidance can be taken from the phase diagrams at the moment pji. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Late Thursday onwards sees the change as the shallow low approaching from the Atlantic moves into England and Wales. Friday looks the wettest day south of the border as the cooler air from further north meets the surface warmth in the south.A band of rain with some possible thunderstorms across the centre showing up currently on the GFS extra charts. Meanwhile further north, Scotland and N.Ireland look likely to remain largely dry and cool but with some sunshine over the next few days. Friday afternoon The change with cooler air and indeed lower temperatures looks like going into the start of next week before the low moves away and pressure starts to build again.Temperatures should recover then as the cool northerly gradually dies away. No real promise from the models of a return to a settled spell this evening.It looks like a period of westerly type weather will establish next week with transient ridging from the Azores high before the next Atlantic system moves in.

As ever it's all down to preferences-whatever the season. In Summer i am happy with a lot of dry periods,average temps.and some sun-not expecting wall to wall blue skies but enough to brighten up the days. Obviously the odd day or two of rain/showers for the gardens as well. That would be my preference and this pattern usually occurs with frequent ridging ne of the Azores high interspersed with passing Atlantic fronts from transient upper troughs. At the moment the charts indicate such a weak westerly type of setup like this as go into July. Unfortunately the days of me enjoying heatwaves lying by a pool,in the garden or on a beach with shade temps in excess of 27C are long gone. A more typical decent UK Summer such as i outline is better for me playing golf and, i would think, more comfortable for most outdoor activities and more bearable for those at work.

Mid-Summer is often a tricky period to read the models with a flabby 500hPa wave pattern. The main features for us are the semi-permanent Azores high and the remains of the Polar vortex which at this time of year sends isolated upper cold pools towards mid-latitudes and this seems to be one of those years. the current GFS NH chart shows this pattern Looking at prospects for us for the next few days it looks like pressure will fall away as a shallow low approaches from the south west bringing an increasingly showery period particularly for England and Wales. Not sure things will remain unsettled for too long though with signs from the 3 op runs that the Azores high will ridge towards us again after the passage of that low as we go into next week. not a bad Summer pattern at all when compared with some of the washout setups we have had in recent years.

Good morning all, A Summery outlook from all the 00z runs with pressure rising from the south across the UK through this week. Very little energy across the Atlantic showing by the end of the week as the blocking high takes hold. No heatwave yet with the surface flow around the top of the high off the Atlantic but warm enough for many i would think with low 20'c widely away from the far nw. Once the showery activity dies away over the next day or so we could be looking at quite a dry and settled week to 10 days fairly widely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_London_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Manchester_avn.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_Aberdeen_avn.png a nice looking gfs mean too at day 10.

Some good pics there guys.Looking forward to seeing for myself when wife and i are up at Braemar later next week.Will be touring the Cairngorms,Aviemore area.This will be our 3rd visit. We love it around the Highlands especially this time of year with around 20hrs daylight.

Yes Liam particularly in the south where temps are expected to rise later in the night as the warmer air comes across. 16-18C by 6am with high humidity for some in the se quarter look quite possible. Looking again another wave of activity following on for the morning which appears to be more widespread as the cold front comes through. This all moving north and east through the afternoon. Should feel much fresher for many of us by Sunday which should be quite a pleasant day and still warm enough.

A good sat image of the curl of cloud around the low to our south west. plenty of heat over Spain and France building now coming north ahead of the fronts on the southerly wind. It looks like the first wave of convectional percipitation will cross the Channel towards mid-night based on the last NMM run. as ever radar/sat watch will be the way to go later this evening as things develop over France.

Nick your post has been moved to the Storm thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80540-convective-storm-discussion-5th-june-2014-onwards/ as this was not model discussion.

Yes Steve some Summery looking outputs this evening from all the main runs. Some heat and humidity over the weekend with some convective interest quite widely,this continuing into early next week.The main risk then more for the far se as pulses of continental heat move north meet the Atlantic air pushing in from the west. By midweek high pressure building from the continent settling things down for many us with some pleasant warmth and sunshine. A nice looking GEFs mean for the end of next week. a decent looking week to come by the looks-although suggestions of a brief interruption later from a Scandinavian trough looks possible further on.

A post has been removed-no model discussion was included within it's content. Please post general weather comments in the relevant thread. Thanks.

Nothing to change my mind on this.Looks the likely outcome after the thundery plume over the week end.

For anyone interested re.snow stopped play here's a link with pics. http://www.espncricinfo.com/derbyshire/content/image/462042.html ..it was indeed at Buxton.

Yep i recall driving in to work that morning and seeing sleet mixed in with the rain. I thought i was seeing things at first.I seem to remember also that a county cricket match in Derbyshire(Buxton?)was called off because of snow. Most unusual for June but a few days later everything changed and we had plenty of warm,even some hot and sunny weather throughout the Summer. Oh yes it.s been wet here too today-rain heavy at times this morning.Currently 11C in drizzle and murk.

An interesting view Captain and cant be discounted. It would need that Atlantic trough to pull back which is indeed shown on the ECM Op run around T120/144hrs. I think we can say that the weekend push from the west will get across though as it 's now getting too close for much change to the 500hPa outlook so I guess you are talking about second incursion of heat,a sort of second bite? It would be a bit of surprise as we have seen a number of times where the ECM Operational later frames like to sharpen the wave patterns a little more than the others. The mean outputs for next week also model a more Atlantic pattern as shown in my earlier post. The Ens graph would indicate the ECM Op being a warm run against it's members also. Still never say never as we all know in here by now the unexpected can and does crop up from time to time.

Afternoon all, Yes there's certainly some continental heat building by the weekend and it looks like the se especially will get the edge of that as rain,possibly thundery, breaks out over the UK. The fax chart for Saturday. Some interesting images from extra on the current thinking re. temps/rain/storm risk at 18z Saturday showing the possible 25C max's and the heat across the channel.That bulge of higher uppers pushing north ahead of the trough on a southerly drift. The rain moving north and east through Saturday into Sunday with somewhat fresher and drier Atlantic south westerlies replacing the humid and very warm conditions by the start of Monday. Next week's ens means still going for a more Atlantic feel to things with a south westerly pattern and the Euro block still lurking further east. that heat never far away over the continent after the weekend flirtation with the UK but currently it looks like the influence of the Atlantic trough will then hold sway going forward. The pattern would then mean a more typical UK setup with the brightest and warmest weather further south and east.

Yes Mushy although i think based on the latest ens we will see more of a south westerly influence so some decent warmth but further north west could see some cooler,damper interruptions. At the moment it looks like the main heat will be over the near continent by the end of the week giving the se a glancing blow before the flow turns more into the west. I thinking more a nw/se split evolving later in week 2-typical of early Summer i suppose but surely better than some of the recent ones-if this pattern verifies of course.

Yes Dancer good not to have to wear rainproofs on the course-had enough of that these last few months. Not sure if my luck will hold throughout this week,although tomorrow doesn't look too bad here. Fingers crossed.

Yes those fronts coming east seem to be fizzling away. I had a nice round of golf this morning with warm sunshine and broken cloud. A little more cloudy now but no sign of any rain so yes much better than the earlier forecasts.