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Essan

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Posts posted by Essan

  1. 1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

    All finished here, 16cm. This time yesterday would have been grateful for 3cm.

    3cm would be more than my wildest dreams!      Especially if it lasted more than 3 hours on the ground.

    But these days that seems as likely as 100 golden unicorns being born in my garden every night.   

    (Okay, not quite fair.  the golden unicorns are much more likely)

    • Like 1
  2. 22 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

    Starting to look like a box-standard UK winter again, so not really worth chasing a few flakes of snow falling especially locally.

    Defintely not a bog-standard winter down here.

    We had a max of just 2c today and it was down to -0.4c by 5pm (currently -1.2c) - this does NOT normally happen here under permacloud  with no snow or even a frost!

    It's been disappointing in terms of snow and hard frosts (although the latter have been more common than most recent years) and the lack of sun has been notable, but temperature-wise, this is proving a very cold month.

    • Like 2
  3. 19 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

    Am i right in thinking pretty much every model now has snow for at least some parts of the Midlands tomorrow?

    The models are looking good for some if not all of the Midlands - even down to here.

    But I wouldn't count on anything.   Expect rain.  Be prepared to be surprised.  Don't be disappointed if you are not

    • Like 1
  4. 4 minutes ago, Gord said:

    I’ve got to set off for work at 4am in the morning. Will the snow be here by then?

    In other words, is it worth leaving my car on the main road tonight in case I can’t get out of my cul de sac?!

    The first lot is expected down here by around midnight - so I would say leave your car on the main road, to be sure.

    • Like 1
  5. 1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    I miscounted. It’s actually 18 hours. Time to get excited! ☃️ 

    Even Evesham has 15 hours of continuous "light snow" tomorrow     Albeit with never more than a 50% chance of precipitation.  So more likely a bit of patchy snow  on and off through the day.   But best I have seen for a few years ..... 

  6. 5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

    1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

    1955-56 had a very cold February

    1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

    2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

    I wonder whether those years also saw SSW?    Just a thought.

    La Nina may in itself suggest a milder second half of winter in the UK, but there are always other factors at play.   In meteorology, you never get 4 from 2+2.   The equations are much, much more complex.  And, whilst sometimes the result is the same, just one factor being out by 1 can produce something altogether different.

    • Like 4
  7. 1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

    Just like that Met app removes 7 hours and now has heavy snow for 2 hours. These things are useless I don't know why I look at them the same as the BBC both dont really have a clue. Radar is always best bet tbh.

    All they are doing is providing a visualisation of the latest model run.   And if the latest run shows the precipitation 20 miles further west, or arriving 30 later, than the previous one, that can make a big difference to what its shows for you.

    Apps are not forecasts (despite being sold as such) - but they can be used as forecasting tools when you do not have access to other data.   And for general amusement (especially when they still show 3 hours of heavy snow this afternoon in Evesham, despite the continuing absence of any lamp-post eating pink giraffes at all, let alone ones inclined to buy Wetherspoons)

     

  8. 3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    Great BBC update with hours if heavy snow forecast now. On the other hand Met Office says a couple of hours of drizzle. I think met office is overdoing this warm sector, it's brief uppers of -4C.

    The BBC looks a lot more realistic to me - just sleet here this afternoon, but with snow this evening.

  9. Just now, #windysnow# said:

    I know.......I am keeping an open mind for later.......BBC has me for heavy snow from 4pm and Met Office has light snow from 5pm....Hoping for BBC but got a feeling Met Office will be spot on!!!!!
     

    Why do we do this

    The MetO has me down for 3 hours of heavy snow from midday today - this is actually as likely as 98 pink giraffes rampaging down the High St and eating all the lamposts for dinner, before collectively buying Wetherspoons for 3p and turning it into a butcher's shop.

    Temp currently 2.6c with a DP of 0.8c - yeaterday we only got rain when both were at 0c .....

    So an hour of light rain it is then. 

     

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