Essan
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Posts posted by Essan
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25 minutes ago, VeryCold said:
Love the big hole around Warwick, Stratford and Wellesbourne. Figures
Think it's meant to be the Vale of
BoredomEvesham but they put it a bit further east by mistake -
Contrary to what the radar may imply, it's 100% rain with not merest hint of the tiniest idea of sleet in Evesham.
Exactly as forecast and not at all unexpected.
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22 minutes ago, Storme said:
Only 70% sure its sleet but 90% sure its snow later. How does that work?
The percentage is chance of precipitation, not precipitation type
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19 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:
I suppose I need to remind myself that this is how snowyish setups usually go in this part of the world, not the exceptional events of Dec 2017 or Mar 2018! No doubt I was thoroughly spoilt by last year.
Last winter was old skool. This year we're back in the 21st century.
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4 minutes ago, snowhope said:
I am down on the Worcester/Gloucester Border, pretty much as far SW as you can get in the Midlands. I am hopeful to see something the next few days but as others have already mentioned, keep your expectations low and hope to be surprised.
Currently GFS is showing more Sleet than anything else, I would rather nothing than hours of horrid sleet!
Over the past 24 hours the Met Office not-a-forecast has steadily shifted from snow to a rain/sleet event for this side of the hill ..... I'm not expecting much at all now, though the Cotswolds may seeing something.
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I'm just inside the warning area, and the MetO not-a-forecast has been consistently showing snow here Tues/Weds since last night. But at the moment the idea of snow on the ground come Weds morning is something I consider only a possibility, with the Cotswolds at greater risk. We may yet even see nothing at all!
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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Doesn't matter how wet the ground is. Snow will settle if its cold enough. Seen snow settle many times on absolutely drenched ground after hours of torrential rain.
And I've seen snow fall all day long and fail to settle ..... But yes, it's surprising how quickly snow can settle and cover wet ground.
Anyway, moot point down here. We're not even going to get any rain! -
17 minutes ago, shaky said:
Some parts of central and north midlands could get 5 to 10cms!
And for us in the SW Midlands zilch, as usual!
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36 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:
You should get snow imo
Even were that chart for tomorrow I;d not be expecting much here. But a pessimist is more often pleasantly surprised than an optimist
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3 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:
Heavy snow symbols on Met Office for Tuesday for Walsall
Not even rain for me!
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The Sun is rising! For the first time in weeks ......
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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
I am trying to be indifferent about this but I can't help feel there is a bit OTT about this. It looks bog standard winter anticyclonic conditions, yet we got that saying 60% probablity of severe cold. Severe cold?! Severe cold was 1st March last year.
Are we going to have this alert everytime there is a winter anticyclone?
What's OTT about it? It's for nurses, doctors and care workers who may be looking after persons vulnerable to cold weather.
And the lowest temp I recorded in all the "severe cold" last Feb/Mar was -6.1c Which is only 1.5c colder than it was today. -
Yet again clouded over by dawn (what does it take to get a sunny day these days?!), but still managed to get down to -4.6c in my garden
That's colder than anything I recorded in 2011, 2013 or 2014 so can't grumble! -
10 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
I don't recall any studies saying summer arctic sea ice would be gone by 2015. The most bullish went for the early 2020s but the mid-late 2030s are the current predicted timeframe. Before 2007 it was predicted to be in the 2070s-2090s...
And even then I think it's not a case of will but could or, at most, likely - to which always the caveat needs adding "all else being equal".
The problem is that the media pester (or else, misquote out of context) a scientist into admitting that "in theory it's possible something could happen by such-and-such a date", then issue a headline saying he has stated it will happen by that date, when the reality is he thinks it's highly unlikely (just not impossible).
And when it doesn't happen, the public blame the scientist.
Something we also see, of course, with routine weather stories.
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Yes, perfectly normal.
Watch out for the rainbows though .....
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14mm in Evesham yesterday, making it the 2nd wettest day of the year (after 15mm on 25th May). Month's total now up to 19.1mm
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On 06/09/2018 at 09:35, Midlands Ice Age said:
Essan...
Thanks for the 'heads up'.
Which route for the Worcs to Glouc walk?
MIA
Sorry, only just saw this
Straight along the Severn Way - footpath east side of the river. Starting from The Old Rectifying House (pub) near the bridge after lunch (1pmish) - then to Upton tonight. Start tomorrow at the Swan pub, finishing at Glos Docks around 6pmish tomorrow
Should be a fairly large group both days, plus we have some kayakers accompanying us tomorrow! -
Some of your may have heard of Martyn Wells from UKweatherworld.
He is a stage 4 cancer patient who had his whole stomach removed in March.
He is currently walking the Severn Way to raise funds for MacMillan Nurses, Today he did 33 miles ......
He should be on local TV doing the weather forecast with Shefali tomorrow
I will be joining him in Worcs on Friday to walk down to Glos.
the most amazing person it has been my privilege to know!
www,severnway2018,com-
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Well after all that, just had a massive 8.3mm from the cold front ...... totally unexpected, but very welcome indeed!
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18 hours ago, Snowycat said:
Thanks.....and hope so just had a further blink and you've missed it heavy shower.... sun out again now
Sadly I was wrong (here anyway) - just 1mm today from patchy drizzle. At least the washing is drying nicely in the breeze
My month's total is now up to 9mm, most of which fell in yesterday's thunderstorm. And it looks like that's it for a couple more weeks at least .... Means I am still in partial drought (ave of no more than 0.25mm/day) from the start of June. -
58 minutes ago, Snowycat said:
All very disappointing so far. Earlier today we had heavy/torrential rain forecast for Penn in Wolverhampton - where did that go then
"Apps" should never be relied upon in showery conditions - no model can ever predict exactly where a shower will fall. They should only be interpreted as a likelihood of showers "in the vicinity" which may or may not fall on your location
Should see some decent frontal rain tomorrow though-
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Had a good thunderstorm in Evesham about 3.30pm - first thunder I have heard since April!
If models are right, tomorrow may match my wettest day of the year so far! -
Managed a whole 1mm of rain in Evesham - enough to break the 25 day absolute drought but not making much inroads on the summer deficit! Though a slight chance we may get another wee bit from the stuff currently over west Glos of it maintains its trajectory and doesn't dissipate first ....
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Today is Day 20 of absolute drought in Evesham - the longest such spell since I started using my current WS in May 2011.
Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
I'm 30 miles south of Brum but at my altitude and being in the Vale, one of the driest places in the UK, whichever direction precipitation comes from, I am not expecting much. However, radar will be my guide tomorrow.