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Dale Hay

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    Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Estofex currently have this...

    post-20399-0-15150800-1431242552_thumb.p

    (Text snipped from Estofex)

    Storm Forecast

    Valid: Sun 10 May 2015 06:00 to Mon 11 May 2015 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Sat 09 May 2015 20:49

    Forecaster: TASZAREK

    A level 1 was issued for N United Kingdom and Ireland mainly for severe wind gust and tornadoes.

    Discussion

    ...N United Kingdom and Ireland...

    Within trough approaching into Scotland and advection of cold air of polar origin in its rear flank, thermodynamic instability resulting from steep lapse rates (> 7C/km) and humid boundary layer (average mixing ratios ~ 7 g/kg) will reach 100-200 J/kg. Although free convective layer will be shallow (3-4 km), impressive mid and low level airflow will pose high threat for severe wind gusts of convective origin. Linearly organized convection within such environment cannot be also ruled out. High values of LLS (~ 10-15 m/s) overlapping with SRH 0-1 km ~ 150 m2/s2 will also pose a risk for tornado occurrence. Convection in this region is expected during the night and in the end of the forecast period. The highest threat for severe weather phenomena will fall on the passage of the cold atmospheric front (0300-0600 UTC). Due to relatively low and uncertain thermodynamic instability, the confidence of the forecast seems to be low.

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Dale Hay

    Finally, snow is starting to fall in Weston-super-Mare ... *yay*

    Only lightly and small flakes, but still... it's snow. (Also I don't see it sticking as the ground is a bit wet from earlier)

    [EDIT]

    After posting the above, it seems to have pretty much stopped... only the odd little flake falling now. Well, at least I've witnessed snow for the first time in 2 years.

    Scotland - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    They've tweeted that to about 20 folk, just standard protocol it seems.

    Absolutely outrageous. :(

    Cheers to all the folk who've posted offering support on here by the way, the netweather community's invaluable at times like these :good:

    I know I'm hundreds of miles south of everyone in this thread, am all the way down in cider-land, I enjoy (trying) to help. :)

    Assuming the roof has come off, they need to hunker down in the safest part of the house (which is normally underneath the stairs in a 2-storey property) with as many duvets etc as they can gather and wait for the storm to abate and help to arrive.

    I agree PP, I was going to say earlier, the best thing to do is what you always see on American documentaries about tornadoes (yes, I know this isn't, but the principle is the same), stay away from windows, go to the safest part of the house (room/cupboard/closet) with no windows and use as much padding as possible (blankets, pillows, etc..) and wait the storm out.
    • Like 5

    Scotland - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Does anyone know if the winds about to calm down, the police have said they can not get out n to get in the hallway n stay there till they can get them. (Milkmaids daughter)

    The windspeed is on the decline... albeit *VERY slowly*:

    1:50am - Wind: 79mph | Gust: 106mph | Pres: 973mb

    2:20am - Wind: 70mph | Gust: 99mph | Pres: 977mb

    2:50am - Wind: 66mph | Gust: 90mph | Pres: 978mb

    But I personally don't know how long it'll be for emergency services.

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