[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, That ECM said:

Not the worst pv we’ve seen. 

None of this matters as long as Iberian heights always show up at the exact worst possible time every single time.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Lesson learned, don't trust models with names like BOM. Massively overestimated MJO signal.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Hoghtonwhite said:

Christ the lord that is some chart on the pub run. This is exactly what took place in December 2010. A cold front moved south preceded by a band of rain. What followed was freezing temps and instability everywhere with hefty outbreaks of snow moving here there and everywhereright down to sea level at coasts. The Irish Sea on the evening of Friday 17th December decided to plaster the north west with a foot of snow which lasted on the ground until well beyond Christmas with nightly minimums -12 Celsius through till Boxing Day. 

I just have a feeling it could happen again. 2010 isn’t that long ago in the grand scheme of things, considering all the noise around recent global warming. 
 

Anything can happen at any time. 

 

This is good but 2010 was a whole other beast. That PV chunk over Scandi on your charts was actually over the UK in 2010, dropped directly down from the North Pole. It's what allowed a rare westerly lake effect event for Northwest England.

 

Won't be seen again for a very long time imo, but will make do with what the GFS 18z is offering

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

What we have from last night 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Finishing up now, good 6-7cm settled. 

 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Easing off now and just very light stuff left on the radar before it clears.

2nd largest snowfall I’ve seen here at around 9cm. December 2017 narrowly remains number 1 at 10cm,

Did Jan 21 not deliver for you? Probably matched March earlier this year with this one, good 2 inches now.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

About an inch settled now 

 

 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Wonder where the snow line is. Still coming down heavy here and a friend has similar down in Stafford.

Still nice steady snow here

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Waiting for the inevitable it looks like, but for now heavy snow settling everywhere 1-2cm. Beats last December

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Relieved to say it's snowing here with a dusting starting to settle, but reports in Birmingham have me rattled, thought you would be safe mostly being 200m+.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

No matter how many snow events I go through, the first layer of evaporating snowfall ahead of the front always makes me anxious.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

First flakes just started now.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Let's just hope 00zs don't reset everything again, though I like the fact it's multiple models picking up on this Atlantic ridge signal now.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Light dusting so far. It’s going to have to go some to get near what the models are showing, but the night is young!

I think the main band is still west Wales, it has the same N/S orientation as the main event on the models. Everything else is just early light stuff ahead of the main band.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Another day of 06z, 12z and, 18z clawing back what the 00z took from us again. How is this happening every day?

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Automated forecast lowering the temperature and looking more wintry for Monday

Met office says rainfest for me even today, problem is its current temperature for here is already 2C above reality while BBC is 3c above. I don't know what I'm missing but I just don't see anything but snow today and I'm quietly confident for Monday too.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, markw2680 said:

I’m expecting a decent covering tonight tbh but we will see

Same, midday and the ground already looks like we've had snowfall because of all the frost that's built in the last 3 days. Should hopefully stick fine.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Got some breathing space in the warning area. 100m so would hope for at least some accumulations. Let's hope it's a good one because the charts aren't looking great this morning, those dartboard lows always seem to know the worst possible time to make an appearance.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I know its the last frame but  we can only dream eh .

Lake effect snowmaker upper low incoming.

[Anyone on here actually prefer mild winters over cold winters?]

Snow and cold by far and away the best to have. Mild and unsettled is absolutely horrific, especially if Spring is poor as well, then you've essentially had a 9 month block of monotonous miserable rubbish. The other 2 I can understand.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

After seeing the huge BFTE being blown away with ease by a small low  in 2018 I've never believed the cold is hard to shift myth, that was a rude awakening. With this cold spell though I do think there could be surprises, because we have positive reinforcements e.g. Canadian warming after the jet fires up, as opposed to waiting the inevitable after our initial block loses strength. If those reinforcements can affect the jet on time there's no reason we can't stay in the cold side. As said a few days ago the timing of those conflicting interactions will result in the messiest charts ever.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

-3C good foundation on the off chance that band in Yorkshire decides to make it this far South

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't

I think the Met Office do a terrific job most of the time but they do no right in some people's eyes. Get 8 out of 10 things right and are criticised for the 2. Weird

Anyway, another warm op run obviously with 2 distinct clusters setting up. Interesting. Short ensembles:

That's a significant cold cluster at least, what's that 65/35 in favour of mild.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Canadian warming event happening immediately after the jet stream getting a bit more power is a recipe for the messiest charts ever. I'd back a return to mild at least temporarily, but not surprised LPs are suddenly fizzling out to the North of the UK in 2nd week of December. Model watching is going to be mad in the next week.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

Coming along nicely. Forecast to peak around the 5th - 7th December. Here's the geopotential height and heat temp anomaly at 10hPa. The SPV literally feeling the heat and being encouraged to move towards the European side of the hemisphere.

28th Nov 

05th Dec  

Source: http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/ztemp_multilevels.html

Let's hope we have a case of models not yet taking it into account as much as they should do until it's actually happened. Would be very well timed with our first block fading around that time.