Snowy L
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Posts posted by Snowy L
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High may be swiftly replaced on the ECMWF but so is the low after it. Some good days some not so good with a more traditional mobile NW/SE split, infinitely better than July.
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2 hours ago, Faronstream said:
Lol now even the long range models have lost the high pressure rising from the south for the 3rd and last week of august, maybe we are getting a clear improvement in september when no one really wants it, a little too late.
I'm not too fussed about charts like that, on a local scale something like is possible
When we had a similar set up in June it was a lot of fun. Warm and sunny during the day then thunderstorms in late afternoon.
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A lot of mess to get out of the way between day 3-7, where unfortunately it looks like another direct hit from a low on Saturday, but just after this time next week we have this:
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2 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:
The ICON has some intense heat around at 180hrs to our south. Wouldn't take much to push that to our shores.
The thing is what typically allows heat to build so intensely to our South is typically what also allows lows to blow up over the UK.
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Met Office confirm July has been cooler than average. Whatever will the cold rainfest loving fans use to gaslight us with now?
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1 hour ago, SunSean said:
Sunshine totals for July (Awaiting 4 more stations for their final day- will post later on in the sun thread)
Lancashire were the unlucky county to finish on double digits.
Nowhere reached the 200 hour mark!
Hopefully a sunnier August, September & October!
110 hours.... 7 clear days out of 31 would have exceeded that. Horrific.
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I'm not going to get my hopes up or say things will improve but it does seem the low that hits us on Wednesday and then gives us the Northerly for the rest of the week is the last of the Atlantic barrage. After that a lot is up in the air and there's uncertainty about what then takes over. Maybe a chance of an improvement, maybe lows win again, but at least we have something of a raffle instead, just need some luck.
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4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Wow, do people really think that this is a normal UK summer, no wonder people are moaning so much. Last year was an extreme, this year is very disappointing for sure, temp is only average because we are warmer during these conditions than we should be, but we really have been spoilt in recent years, if this is the expectation, rather than a short term heat wave.
I don't think it's an expectation it's just what would be required to be compensated for this shocking July. As much as weeks of heatwave conditions isn't normal, let's be clear this July is far from normal. As posted with the graphic last night, for sunlight and rainfall combined, for anyone born after 1988 this is the worst July they have ever lived through. It's as abnormal as a 1975 summer.
And also like I said because of warm nights it's average according to the outdated 61-90 metric. In reality compared to the more relevant last 30 years we've lived through, 91-20, it's significantly below average temperature wise too.
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Here we have it, the worst July in my lifetime. But because the nights are often cloudy and therefore kept mild, the CET is equal to the long outdated 61-90 average, so we can't complain.
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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
............ only we are heading towards an El Nino phase for the Winter, and El NIno Winters are usually warm, wet and windy.. with the higher than normal Atlantic SSTs, this Winter IMHO isnt looking good for Wintry weather, but could be quite stormy.
Met Office say very little about ENSO effects on UK weather but the one thing they feel confident enough to say is the increased likelihood of cold winters during El Nino years.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKEl Niño and La Niña are terms which describe the biggest fluctuation in the Earth's climate system and can have consequences across the globe.-
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CET of 20C for May and all 3 summer months next year would just about make up for the absolute trash we have had to put up with since March.
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1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
It’s poor all the way, those charts can only be classed as transitional as best.
1016hpa over the UK should at least give us something. The last month apart from the very rare transient ridge like today, we have been on the wrong side of the boundary between low and high pressure or even well within a low. It's painfully slow, but at least the signs are there that we will be on the right side, especially in the Southeast. For my area that means 22-24C sunny spells and the odd shower. Not great in isolation but compared to 15-20C and either relentless showers or frontal rain then the improvement is significant.
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At least the grass has never looked healthier.
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Surprisingly warm here, don't think it was meant to hit 22C today. Regular showers of course but I've long accepted rain every day as the new normal.
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Maybe a 1 or 2 hour break befors the next front? How is it possible to have this small a gap between two fronts?
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40 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Absolutely. We had some really pleasant days in the last week yet it was constant moans about what was to come. It's the same as having a great snowy/cold spell and moaning about it ending in 5 days time.
Well for many this week wasn't good though. Yes relative to this clown show of a month, this week was OK, but any other year a week of temperatures 2-4C below average, which means high teens in the middle of July here, and rain every day, would be awful. Less bad than awful is still bad.
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Tough to take both Spring and Summer being a disgrace. Even in the worst years like 2012 it's only one of the seasons being awful. Some got a good May but anywhere away from the west typically got a mix of cloud days and the occasional sunny day with average temperatures. The 2 weeks in June have been the only actual good warm spell since last August. Counting down the days until I get out of this drizzly island. Possibly the worst year weatherwise in my lifetime.
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26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Only cluster 5 looks anything like ok to me .
The rest suggest the beginning of August looks crap.
2 and 3 at least break the wave 5 pattern. Those are snapshots but would imagine we would at least have more changeable weather (e.g. occasional weak ridges) rather than the fixed endless low pressure influence we have now.
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Below average and it rained at some point, despite that probably the 3rd best day of this July so far.
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Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are all above the EU average (and the UK) for suicide rates. Maybe better to trust the objective data than subjective happiness surveys. Lowest rates are found in the Mediterranean and the UK doing surprisingly well.
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1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:
August 30 to The Algarve for our reg 2 weeks down there. I'm conscious of my age so dont like wishing time away. Must stay calm and joyful
3 weeks for me, longer than than normal but was far cheaper than 2 weeks or less, with current weather very happy about that.
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House temp is now below 20C. If I didn't have my trip to Cyprus to look forward to I'd be depressed.
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Managed 15 minutes of very overdue gardening before the rain started.
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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
tomorrow is looking foul, so disappointing, want to take my 98 year old Nan out for a 'walk' in Kings Bromley, really disappointed
I hear you, not had a chance to do anything outdoors for a while now. How anyone can enjoy this I'll never know.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Respectfully after the July we have had to endure...