Snowy L
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Posts posted by Snowy L
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3 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
What's the chance of a pembrokeshire dangler in this setup?
A what?
Would think that next low is set up nicely for an undercut when it makes it across the Atlantic, though getting way into FI now.
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Depends where you lived, some places had lying snow for 7 days and ice days for most of them , and about -12c!!
Even then it was just 1 day of falling snow for those few lucky enough to even have a snow event. For a 10-14 day cold spell that's awful. 2010 was a snow event per day pretty much when I was in Leeds. December 2022 was an enormous waste of potential given the synoptics.
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20 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
It's definitely possible for some last minute increases in the flow structure however as it stands the flow looks very weak given the strength of the blocking to our north west. It's a result of the low weakening to our South.
Half agree, it's a bit better than last December at least, which was pretty much no flow.
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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:
The parameters don't support snow.
Thickness too high, 850s too high.
Just my opinion
Parameters are better than they were for 27th November 2021 for my all snow event, that's for sure.
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Just now, Mucka said:
Odd MetO forecast this morning given the charts.
"Brighter skies develop on Tuesday and Wednesday before rain and showers into Thursday."
No mention of snow even for high ground or the North, quite strange.
It may well be a rain event or non event int he end but you would think they would cover themselves with snow in the charts by at least mentioning the possibility
Very odd, it's not as if we are jumping straight from mild to cold on Thursday, the UK will have been below average for a week by Thursday, we have our own cold pool established, even if nothing too crazy.
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Really hope a proper cold and snowy spell materialises. December is the best month for snow having the shorter days and festivities. If I could chose a 4 week window in winter to have a cold spell it would be 2nd week of December - 1st week of Jan.
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17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Sure, here you go.
Blocking is very common during November due to a weaker vortex, it's not really until December that full coupling & strength begins to drive the pattern.
November is typically the 2nd or 3rd strongest month in the year for polar vortex strength, using the historic mean line of chart below. Yes it's not at December levels but let's not pretend it's some blocking free for all, especially late in the month.
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20 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:
I saw this posted on Twitter earlier; a tripole anomaly in the Atlantic clearly shows a band of cooler waters sandwiched by warmer waters to the north and south. The cold winters of 2009/10 and late 2010 were characterised by a similar tripole pattern in the North Atlantic which produced a negative NAO.
Would hope that drives low pressure development on the boundary between warm anomalies and cold anomalies near Spain latitude?
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9 minutes ago, IanT said:
My friend’s son goes to a state school in nearby Hampshire. It’s closed today because of the “major incident”. Meanwhile my son is at rowing training with his (independent) school. We had a message at 0600 saying that that training was on, and that they would make an assessment on river levels/condition and the overhead weather at 0800. If conditions weren’t considered safe the boys would run together (about 4km) from the boathouse to the school and train together in the gym there.
Which set of kids are getting the right messages about risk management, perseverance, commitment, attitude to life etc…?
Definitely the ones still going outside. What is it like 40-50mph in Woking? If a low with a peak of 40-50mph hit the UK no-one would care. It's the fact that this one also has 100mph winds in the Channel, but what does 200 miles away matter to the outdoor activities of Woking? It's irrelevant.
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51.6mm here in the last 24 hours, mostly fizzled out here now.
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Redmires Reservoir west of Sheffield has breached 100mm, with 102.6mm in the last 24 hours.
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There have been a few localised flood problems here tbf, thankfully we've been just South of the heaviest rain so it's been more a case of relentless light-moderate rain with the odd heavier patch. 45mm in the last 24 hours now.
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Catastrophic affects on the roads here, it's absolute carnage. Went to go somewhere and had to turn back because it's all gridlocked. No flooding though everything's fine with the weather, just a typical day on Burton's roads.
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Rain really pepping up in the Peak District area now. Wonder if they'll get a red warning tomorrow.
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Some light rain with the odd heavy burst last night,dry today, light winds throughout. Not the worst storm ever.
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Finally some milder nights coming. House was 13.5C this morning. I don't know how some houses stay so warm without heating when the average temperature has been about 6-8C these last 3 days.
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Dodged all the showers and it's been a nice day to be fair, mostly sunny throughout.
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9 minutes ago, Frigid said:
Vile? That's possibly one of the best charts I've seen in October for a while. Though, it would be much better if it were to happen in November
It's 6C and persistent light/moderate rain.
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9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Shower clouds building here.
How do people houses cool so quick.
Lmao I genuinely don't know loft is insulated and everything double glazed. Haven't had the heating on yet, but think I'll have to on Sunday/Monday.
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House temp was down to 16C this morning. Not ready for summer to go yet, please one more warm spell.
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Sun out by around 11am after an overcast start and it's another lovely day 20C.
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Slightly thicker cloud that took over for a bit has cleared away and really feels like summer now. 21C perfect.
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14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
You'd certainly think that- but there are actually some in here that enjoy dullness and darkness- I'm yet to meet anyone outside this forum that does however.
I also think the cold=sunny idea in the winter is a myth. The coldest months are not always sunny- in fact they're often dull. Southerly is the sunniest direction here at almost all times of year.
Look at places like Moscow that are on a similar latitude to the UK and have much colder winters- they're also actually duller in winter too in terms of sunshine hours.
I'm not sure, I think this week is a good example of Southerlies late in the year bringing way too much cloud and haze with them. Wishbone northerly brings those cloudless days with brilliant visibility too.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's fractions of a degree lower than the tightly packed bunch of members. Main takeaway is it is with a large cluster of colder members.