Snowy L

ECM brings us back on track. Not perfect but wouldn't take too much to get there. Now or never if the GFS is going to flip, the key detail is only a few days away.

Problem is those usual suspects have been correct to moan since 2013/14.

Much better looking Greenland High on this run, exploding to over 1065hpa. Faroe Islands should have some fun.

I think a west based NAO is on the way again on the 18z. Sorry Nick. Edit: Does that Atlantic low at t144 look tilted better?

That GH is definitely stronger than yesterdays runs. Regarding the mid-term, the 06z and now the 12z goes for building heights in Scandinavia after the Greenland heigh weakens. Not a bad way to go after the PV strengthens over Canada/greenland.

Now would be a great time for Fergieweather to pop in and tell us what the MOGREPS is showing.

18z not looking pretty. Atlantic low is going to power through between the Atlantic and Greenland high it seems.

We also have low pressure above the North Atlantic/South Greenland High in both the GFS and ECM at t168 and the link to the arctic high is incredibly weak in both models too. Things will only go one direction when you have low pressure going above the alleged "northern" block. Not much to get excited about imo unless you live in the Pennines.

When did records begin? Its an interesting fact, but would mean a lot more if records began 200 years ago as opposed to 20 years ago for example.

Todays update: "Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 65.8 (decreasing 3.9 over the previous solar rotation, solar flux at 1 AU was 64.6, very close to the lowest solar flux value in recorded history). "

Iceland looks like its in the gradient between the pressure systems so I guess it could be west based? Though I think west based NAOs have been given a tough time on this forum. A lot of the time they can work as long as the Euro high is sufficiently displaced away from mid Europe and into the East Med, allowing low pressure to take the spot. It looks like one of our coldest ever Decembers was west based, definitely more west based than the chart you have quouted

Solar flux is down again to 67.6 too. During solar minimum the solar flux bottoms at around 65-70 so we are essentially there if we get this number more consistently.

If we do get a long-lasting block we probably will be looking at a week of cooling down before snow possibilities. November 2010 didnt happen overnight. The easterly formed on the 20th and most places did not see snow until the 27th. If we get the set up and it manages to last, sufficiently cold air from Russia/North Pole will reach us eventually. Tbf we shouldnt even be discussing this at great length because it is a hypothetical within another hypothetical. Get the block in place first then we can worry about these details.

Surely not a repeat of this

Yes, it looks like the problem is a stubborn Euro high (as usual) so instead of low pressure sinking into France/Germany giving us easterly winds, the low pressure docks over us. Though its not somthing we should be worrying about at this stage. It is a detail that we will only be more certain of in two weeks time (should we get the forecast northern blocking).

No you have the right chart. Thats London Ontario.

Spotless again, solar flux at 69.4.

I remember Chiono explaining to me about what happened in 2010 as there was nothing in the stratosphere happening that could have indicated the tropospheric vortex being completely destroyed twice in November and December of that year. Basically it was wave breaking in the troposphere, so a troposphere-led split of the tropospheric vortex. BTW I am not suggesting we will get 2010-like conditions, just thought this is a useful example of how we can still get brilliant tropospheric synoptics without the help of the stratosphere.

Another spotless day, solar flux continuing to fall too.

SAI is on thin ice after 4 consecutive winters of failure. If it does have an affect, it's an affect that is incredibly easily overridden.

Yeah but it does look quite slack in the N. Atlantic region. This has been enough in the past to see high pressure in those slack regions in the troposphere, if the strat and troposphere are in sync.

Good news with the sunspots but we need the flux to go down too. The 90 day average is at the same place as it was this time last year, largely because of the unusual September surge which was the most active month since the solar maximum.

Do we have a graph showing the rate below 60o?

Im not even going to dream big. 1 day of snow accumulating to 3-4 inches would be a better winter than the last 4 combined.

Definitely one of the most memorable weather events. Looking at the archives Im sure it was a lobe of the vortex dive-bombing into the UK