Snowy L

So GFS now more similar to the ECM with the high not retrogressing at t120-t168. Imo that suits us far better. This gives the South Russian high time to go away.

Think we need to get the expected wind reversal, due sometime in the 4th week of November before we can get any clarity from the models.

Everything seemed to fit perfectly in 2012/2013 so his theory has been given a lot more time to prove itself than others, even after the massive failures of 14/15 and 15/16.

I've got access to the paper though I'm not sure about the legality of posting it here? On an unrelated note there is a great website called Sci-Hub that I found today...

What a run by the GFS, the uppers easily beat those seen on 10th August 2003. That year the 20c line just about made our shores, the 12z today shows it comfortably over most of England with the South Coast approaching 23/24c. Don't pay attention to the 2m temps, they regularly show 30c not being reached in Cyprus for example, even though it's mid thirties every day over there. This set up would easily be 35c for the UK and most likely heading towards 37, 38 or even 39C in some spots. I'm very confident of this hot spell happening because it coincides with me leaving the country on the 14th

Anyone else think the 2m temperaures are a bit off in FI? You would think upper temperatures of 15c+ in Southern England would bring more than a maximum of 21C. Edit: In fact the area under 15c upper air doesn't even reach 20c.

We get this rubbish the other 290 days of the year, I don't want any extreme heat, but nothing wrong with sunny and 21c.

Was in the descending phase of the Solar Cycle too

The important thing is average temperatures in May is still comfortable. As long as it's dry then it won't feel bad at all. Fixed

and first

Think it's the fact we've been stuck in temperatures of 8-12c for 6 months now. We've had an extended autumn and no winter. Why would they be frowned upon in January, that would bring snow to many places.

Drizzle has cleared and it's sunny now. 11c.

Mostly sunny and 10c, more of the same please.

GFS bringing some very comfortable weather starting next Saturday. Widespread temperatures in the mid-teens and uppers of 10c approaching the UK. I welcome that, fed up of this awful winter.

For about the 3rd time this winter it looks as if the snow line is about 2 miles East of me. This is why this winter is so much worse here than 2013/14.

How is it sleeting in the Irish Sea yet raining in some parts of NW England.

Big drop in temperature. 6 to 3 in half an hour.

Must be a quick drop in temperature with all these sleet/snow reports. XC weather still shows NW England between 4-6c as of 9.50.

Ice pellets coming down now.

Haven't seen snow for so long I forget.

Looks like the same here, though very light. Whatever's falling is falling like snow does rather than rain here. Very small drops/flakes. Doesn't make sense though as it's 6c at the moment.

This is another reason why this winter is worse than 2013/14. At least in 2013/14 there was nothing to get our hopes up and I even saw falling snow 2 times. This winter there have been so many potential snow events and not one have them has materialized. 5 minutes of very light snow after 12 hours of cold rain is all I've seen this winter.

Think we'll be waiting until at least 3am for wintry weather in the Liverpool area.

Cleared now, big drop in temperature. Currently 4c, BBC weather says 4c was due 4 hours from now.

Front over NW England now, should turn colder after that. Currently 7c here.