Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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Which area in Merseyside?
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Looks like sleet here now that it's heavier. East Liverpool definitely the dividing line if Widness is getting snow. Might be tempted to walk to East Woolton later, a mile might be all the difference.
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Very light rain here. Temperature shooting up too, 2.2C
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Very encouraging. XC weather saying 4c at Crosby.
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1.9c here in Southeast Liverpool. Temperature rise definitely slowing down. Birmingham and Coventry at 4c and they are expected a lot more snow than Liverpool.
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Sun's coming out now, 1.8C
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Even in the middle of a relatively boiling Irish Sea it's falling as sleet at least. Struggling to understand the BBC predictions of rain for places like St Helens and Warrington.
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Downgrade after downgrade on the BBC website. Now showing mostly rain with a bit of sleet later for my area. Let's hope they get this as wrong as they did Boxing day last winter.
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Hopefully temperatures won't be rising too much. Cloud has come for most just after the coldest part of the day and there's no wind to blow the cold ground temperatures away.
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Currently 0.5c after a low of -1. I remain hopeful but the BBC website 5 day forecast for this area is awful.
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You get your ideal weather 364 days of the year, don't be greedy
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Model posted in the Midlands thread shos snow even for coasts.
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Which model is this?
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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016
Snowy L replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter. -
That looks too far East if anything. All good though, hopefully we should see a middle ground with most of the region being hit and most of the region being on the cold side of that front. Winds have shifted more northerly here so cooling down now finally. Currently 2.1c.
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Would love to see the boundary of that warning area. Blizzards one side and bone dry the other.
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A bit of patchy rain in North Wales/NW England. BBC must not be buying the GFS update then.
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On the flip side dew points and surface temperatures are looking good for the Monday event, at least the first part of it.
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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016
Snowy L replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, the 3 best snow events I can remember all came from Atlantic fronts with uppers of between 0 and -2, vitally the wind was coming from the south/south East so cold air from the rest of England was mixing. Funnily enough every time we get a Northwesterly/Northerly with -5 or below uppers the showes always fall as rain or sleet here. -
Chart posted on the previous page shows uppers of -6 for almost all of the region except for the West coast at 9pm tommorow and even that area is under -5 uppers.
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Going to be very close. Do these models take into account the wind direction? Uppers and dewpoints are fine for the entire region and there won't be any wind from the Irish Sea direction. BBC forecasts have updated and it's upgraded my area to an all sleet event. East Liverpool seems to be the dividing line between rain and snow at the moment. St Helens for example is forecast a near all snow event.
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Has any TV forecast acknowledged the existence of this ppn for Saturday night or are they all too scared?
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BBC weather showing 8 consecutive hours of rain sometimes heavy, but not one mention of precipitation in the text forecast. BBC and Met Office really do cop out when it comes to forecasting snow events. 3 days away is ok, but to do this just 1 day before is weak.
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12z still showing the ppn for Saturday night. Over to the Met Office.
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6c here when it's not raining. This is just average January weather.
