Snowy L

Sizeable cluster going with the GFS OP at least

0-5 days - reliable 6-10 days - 50/50 10 days+ - don't even bother.

The Northerly which starts things is 8 days away. Not quite reliable time frame but not in the depths of FI either.

A mild North Sea can be good and bad. As long as the air is cold enough to cancel out the mild effect it's fine. Also a higher gradient between air and sea will bring more precipitation.

Maybe you weren't in the UK? 12/13 was one of the snowiest winters I can remember. Not particularly cold but battleground after battleground just on the right side of marginal.

We've had a lot of potential since October now, but the story of Autumn and early winter has been abundant mid-lattitude blocking with zero HLB and I don't see any reason why that will change. Just another awful winter we have to brave through until we reach solar minimum, hopefully next year.

Would honestly take zonal now. Fed up of dull, cloudy cold days. If winter is going to be wasted, might as well waste it on some storms.

Could even be seeing a retrogression in deep FI with lows disintegrating over Greenland. Here we go again...

Barbecue time on both ECM and GFS in the run up to Christmas.

It's happening again. We get everything we need for a block except 1 thing and it ruins everything. The scandi high is there, holding off the Atlantic yet the entire Mediterranean is devoid of any pressure gradient so the only way that Scandi high will go is South. So frustrating. We've seen some brilliant synoptics through November and December go to absolute waste. Edit: You can see it here. From Syria to the Atlantic with zero pressure difference throughout.

Solar flux and sunspot number on the way down again after that annoying surge that gave us our highest sunspot count since September.

Yeah this myth has to go.I think we're stuck in 2012/13 where everything went right in the strat forecasts. In the following 3 winters and the beginning of this one I've lost count of how many times a forecast warming at 240 hours has completely disappeared the following day.

Both at the very end of their respective runs, but ECM and GFS showing signs of a southerly tracking jet.

Why did you put a cross over a 1055mb Greenland High? If you go through the run the high stays there throughout the run too.

I think it's unlikely we'll get a cold spell, and I'm not just saying this because it's not showing what I want to see, but why is GEM being involved in the conversation this winter. GEM is an awful model. Last year it was ARPEGE, a couple of years ago it was BOM. I'd rather stick to the main 3.

It was more of a don't be too upset at the 12z GFS post, because the GH is still there.

The difference between the GFS 06z and the 12z are far smaller than the differences between the GFS and ECM. The 12z continues to have a strong Greenland High building, the only difference from this morning's run is a tiny shortwave developing out of nowhere and ruining everything. Predicting a shortwave from 1 week out is impossible, so it's still game on and wait and see with the GFS. The ECM doesn't even attempt Northern Blocking, not on our side of the globe anwway, with high pressure over central/western Canada. What I'm looking for with the 12z ECM is if it switches to building sibstantial high pressure over Greenland at days 5-8. That would be a shift to the GFS regardless of what's going on with the shortwave mess in the Atlantic. Forget shortwave drama for now.

That's a perfect Greenland high,no other way to describe it.

Big difference in all of today's models compared to yesterday is that East Euro high weakens much quicker. Makes it easier for low pressure in Scandi to move south, which paves way for a Northerly.

18z flatter and shifted eastwards compared to 12z. Though shortwave at t150 seems to have merged with bigger block of low pressure over Scandi. Could make a potential GH easier?

Should beat 2010, according to Solen we have been spotless for 7 consecutive days now http://www.solen.info/solar/ Solar flux under 80 for over a month now too. Surely solar minimum territory?

Everything seems a 100 miles further west than on the 12z so far.

Don't be too harsh on those fearing the worst after the Last 3 winters.It does seem that if we're not in solar minimum or the ascending phase ,anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

That gap between between East Canada Low and Iceland Low is far small close for comfort. Though should the GH materialise it hopefully means no West Based NAO. Edit: Or no negative NAO at all. Quite the collapse.

Low pressure established in Iberia/ North Italy, Russian high beginning to be cut off from UK high, Atlantic high pushing into Greenland. Looking good so far.