Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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Very light snow here 1oC
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Warm sector will get stronger the further south you go, so surface temps, 850s and dew points get more unfavourable the further south you go. These are negated a bit further east, but then this positive is cancelled out by the fact the ppn begins to fragment as it enters the southeast. Wednesday however there is some potential for snow in the southeast, but too far out to say at the moment.
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Thundersleet here
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4 degrees here, unless it gets a lot colder in the next hour so I don't see how it's going to snow.
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Sleet shower here
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Should very gradually veer more to the Northwest through the night. Hoping this next one in the Irish Sea will do it, it's the first one to get as far South as the North Wales coast so far.
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Still dry here, been a mile too far south for the last 4 hours.
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif That is so close to an undercut, still think the Azores will ruin any potential undercut though, it's just too eager to push towards the UK on every model.
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This, I'd agree with those saying no snow on low ground... if we didn't have that surface cold pool already in place. It's going to get very very cold during Sunday night. I'd still say anywhere North of m4 is good for snow, though may be transient for a while in West Midlands and Wales as they see the warmest part of the warm sector.
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I'm 1 mile too far south at the moment, I can see the edge of the shower clouds. This is horrible.
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Looking good with high pressure further West on this run, need that next low in the North Atlantic to undercut though. On current charts it's oriented SW to NE, we want SE to NW or at least S to N. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif
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Looks like we have snow in the Northeast to watch out for during Monday before the main weather front pushes in from the west Edit; Much smaller warm sector on this run, could see an all snow event for many Northern areas.
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I remember getting a maximum temperature at 1pm of -11oC in 2010, which is crazy for a coastal town. For crazy snowfall we only need to go back to January, March and April of 2013.
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Gone cloudy but no precipitation. Why does this only happen when snow is a possibility lol
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The already cold surface temps should help keep the precipitation as snow in inland areas at least I should think?
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
Snowy L replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They were more reliable a few years ago. When they predicted cold spells a few years ago they were 50/50 success rates. The last 2 years they have a 0% success rate for cold spells. -
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
Snowy L replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We really have had a horrible 2 winters. And if that's not bad enough, the models are absolutely tragic when it comes to predicting a cold spell. -
Snow/hail has started here. Unless there's a strong warm sector associated with the front I don't see why even coastal areas can't see a wintry mix. Diane seemed adamant that it would be rain on coastal areas.
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Diane is a mild lover, probably in denial. This is the person that a few days ago was unhappy at the prospect of us getting temperatures in the double figures and said it would be nice if it was warmer. Every time there is even a chance of cold she gets upset and she didn't look happy tonight. I wish we had a more enthusiastic weather presenter.
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ECM looking good for a snow event I think. I can't tell because the charts are 24 hours apart and there is no precipitation chart, but it looks like a shortwave on the leading edge of the atlantic low moves across the UK from NW to SE. The 850s are good for most places so could potentially be a good snow event? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif I'm guessing the precip chart for this would show precipitation on the east coast?
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Gone back to the 2 sliders it was showing yesterday. Plus a much betetr looking scandi hifh UKMO and GFS vs ECM now
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Reminds me of the begining of the January 2013 cold spell, we got the slider that time http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2013/avn/Rtavn00120130114.png I remember GFS was having none of it until the last 2 days too...
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Another run, another shift to the east as early as 24 hours out. Edit: Though hopefully we're seeing a split in the Greenland and Atlantic high, which may give a route for the Atlantic low to slde down rather than just push the high pressure East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.gif
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More hopeful for tonight if precipitation is turning to snow this early. I really need to stop trusting the BBC. These are the same people who forecast 4oC and heavy rain on boxing day and instead I got 0oC and heavy snow with 2 inches of accumulated snow.
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If it's snow in Liverpool it will definitely be snow where you are
